How much have you lost on shares in the last 3 days?

Porper · 12 June 2006

MichaelD said:
Ah well, at least I have learned the most important lesson of all - how to preserve my capital so I can keep playing the game until I figure it out.

A very good point Michael, that is the name of the game.Preserve capital at all cost.

I wish I new 3 weeks ago what I know now, I would be about $10,000 better off.

After a loss, move your risk down 1%, do this twice, if you lose again, move down another 0.5%, do this for 4 trades.If you lose again, give up for a few weeks as you will get severely stressed (like I did last week)

I should just add that this little system is part of Nick Radge's course " Building a profitable trading plan using technical analysis".I hope he doesn't mind me sharing this small part on here.Excellent course, and yes I am plugging it because it is worth plugging.

MichaelD · 12 June 2006

Porper said:
After a loss, move your risk down 1%, do this twice, if you lose again, move down another 0.5%, do this for 4 trades.If you lose again, give up for a few weeks as you will get severely stressed (like I did last week)

This makes very good sense, since the conditions in the underlying market being traded with a mechanical trend system when stop losses start getting hit as losses (as opposed to closing at a profit) are likely to be adverse to the system (such as the stockmarket over the last few weeks after stop losses got hit).

Basically this is further limiting your risk exposure in times when your system is starting to go into drawdown. An excellent proposition.

dennisll · 12 June 2006

My LT portfolio is down .5% from 1 January, but it is down about 12% from the highs hit when the index topped. The recent bearish mood has allowed me to top up on some of my holdings (ex ABS and SLM).

I am preparing for the XAO to return to 4500 then perhaps 4200. If this does happen, there will be lots of opportunities around. I am keeping close watch on stocks I have long wanted to buy (ex SHL, RHC, WDC, ASX, PPT) and if/when the market falls further I will be in with both hands .

Cheers,

Dennis

mit · 12 June 2006

MichaelD said:
This makes very good sense, since the conditions in the underlying market being traded with a mechanical trend system when stop losses start getting hit as losses (as opposed to closing at a profit) are likely to be adverse to the system (such as the stockmarket over the last few weeks after stop losses got hit).

Basically this is further limiting your risk exposure in times when your system is starting to go into drawdown. An excellent proposition.

Very dependant on the system. I've tried putting filters into the mechanical system I traded and the best result still seems to be to trade through any correction (I've backtested back to 1994). Looking back over the last month or so I can see why (at least for what I trade).

I got hit pretty hard (In my case it was the banks) at the start of the correction and it happened pretty quickly. I still had buy signals and bought into new stocks through May and June and these are going up in spite of the market and have recovered a fair amount of May's losses. After a small correction in January (for everything else except commodity stocks). I lowered my risk and slowly raised it as the My equity recovered.

When I backtested over the same period I found that if I kept a constant risk I would have been a lot further ahead at the moment.

MIT

Realist · 13 June 2006

Holly Cow, BHP and RIO are plummeting this morning

25.79 and 71.49.

Hmm patience.

justjohn · 13 June 2006

60+Point down the ASX has lost that loving feeling : ah well we won the soccer

The Mint Man · 13 June 2006

Realist said:
Holly Cow, BHP and RIO are plummeting this morning

25.79 and 71.49.

Hmm patience.

that 25 buy in is looking good for some.... its been a wild ride lately

Sean K · 13 June 2006

Yes, patience Realist.

0943 [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 expected down about 40 points in line with futures as local market resumes trade after long weekend to find base metals and U.S. stocks sharply lower, amid inflation fears before U.S. PPI/CPI data Tuesday/Wednesday. BHP (BHP.AU) tipped to find buyers near ADR close at A$25.79, after it was well supported by local funds below A$26.00 Friday. Trader says, "I think people will be a bit nervous today, but the stock will be nearly 20% of its May 11 highs and it had this powerful rally from around A$24.00. With this extreme volatility in resources, people have tended to hug the index, but for those with a longer-term view, then I think they get tempted as we sell off this next dollar or two. No one's going to be able to pick the bottom. But A$24-A$26 is certainly an attractive level to get back on the bid." Index last 4966.0. (DWR)

bullmarket · 13 June 2006

bullmarket said:
my crystall ball, tea leaves, rabbit foot and gut seem to think the Dow Jones will be down tonight.

cheers

bullmarket

Consulting my crystal ball, tea leaves, rabbit foot and gut after last Friday above they tell me XJO is still most likely to settle in the 4800-5000 range as they said a few weeks back

And good to see the LPT sector (XPJ) at near all time highs

cheers

bullmarket

The Mint Man · 13 June 2006

still heading south, almost 70 points

lewstherin · 13 June 2006

Blagh...I'm down around 3k on total investment of 20k.
Hanging in for the correction to end.

Beginning to wonder whether the correction is actually the onset of recession?
Was reading some interesting customs stats on China's imports over the last quarter (on kitco somewhere). Nickel, zinc and other base metals have shown a 20-25% drop in volumes imported...that cannot be good?

bullmarket · 13 June 2006

lewstherin said:
Blagh...I'm down around 3k on total investment of 20k.
Hanging in for the correction to end.

Beginning to wonder whether the correction is actually the onset of recession?
Was reading some interesting customs stats on China's imports over the last quarter (on kitco somewhere). Nickel, zinc and other base metals have shown a 20-25% drop in volumes imported...that cannot be good?

oh dear lewstherin

There were a few in here a few weeks back spruiking how there was no correction coming because the global demand for resources would keep the markets rising indefinitely using rubbish like increasing world population to keep demand well above supply...etc etc......well that was never going to happen as a few pointed out in here and so I hope you didn't get caught up in the hype.

I don't believe we're likely to see a recession (technically defined as 2 successive quarters of negative GDP) but I suppose it is still a possibility if interest rates, inflation rates and oil prices keep rising.

cheers

bullmarket

suhm · 13 June 2006

wow look at that kitty cat bounce away. Oh well look at the bright side the sea of red just means you'll have more options for shares to buy in the future.

swingstar · 13 June 2006

Thanks to AMC pulling back today I'm up a decent amount for June. AMC bounced off my EMA today and overall still looks bearish, so going to let my puts run.

Otherwise I'm staying out of the market until there's some clear direction.

The Mint Man · 13 June 2006

just on my comsec....
still sliding down south past the 105 point mark and dosnt seem like stoping there

I have 52 stocks in my watchlist which I separate into different groups being banks, energy, industrial, materials, media, property and telco's. so its a good spread.... but all Im seeing is red
Anyway out of that 52 I currently have... <EDIT on my watch list, I dont own themEDIT>
42 in the red, 3 in green and the rest clinging onto black

hmmm not good if you bought in on friday or any day last week for that matter. Unless of course you short

Sean K · 13 June 2006

I haven't been game to look today.

I hold about 50 stocks and I saw one green arrow at 10.30am.

The Mint Man · 13 June 2006

hehe... I wouldnt suggest you do. the all ords have sliped further then my last post

Realist · 13 June 2006

Down 2.3% today, this is getting nasty!

All ords 4814.3

It was 5318 from memory- down 10%.

Sean K · 13 June 2006

What's keeping me slightly comfortable it the knowledge that it will all eventually go back up again, even if it takes 5 years.

justjohn · 13 June 2006

what a smashup but im still holding 6 green + 9 red, green being(DJS,EBB,GPG,MAP,TRS & WOW WHICH IS UP 1.4%) so far but still down today almost 3k thanx to BHP and down close to 20k over the last 2-3 weeks oh well :dunno:

How much have you lost on shares in the last 3 days?

Porper

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mit

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