Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

How many of you have been stopped out of trades these past 2 days?

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Realist said:
Partly yes.

Amazingly enough. :eek:

During the Tech wreck of 2000 companies with no cash, infact they had debts, they made losses or had P/E ratios of 300, and they crashed. Surprose surprise.

Now huge powerful well run companies with mega bucks in cash have PE ratios of 10 and people are getting spooked.

Hahahaaaaaaaaaaa!
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But you see when metals return to sanity, when the long only funds stop buying and start selling due to redemptions, when the massive oversupply of metals from new mines come on line, etc etc etc., that illusory pe of 10 is ipso facto a pe of about 30 or 40.

THEN we can start pricing in the depression/ reduction in demand, and the Ducsters valuation is looking about right.

:D
 
Realist said:
Partly yes.

Amazingly enough. :eek:

During the Tech wreck of 2000 companies with no cash, infact they had debts, they made losses or had P/E ratios of 300, and they crashed. Surprose surprise.

Now huge powerful well run companies with mega bucks in cash have PE ratios of 10 and people are getting spooked.

Hahahaaaaaaaaaaa!
Click to expand...

well find it funny if you like but If it were me I would rather have sold BHP at $30 and now be watching them closly just waiting to jump back in, while you have lost how much?
From memory you were talking (in another tread a few months ago) about how you bought BHP at around $25-26 (correct me if Im wrong) which I agree, that was a decent buy however Today they are under $25.
the people that sold at $30 are the ones laughing, not at you, instead..... all the way to the bank! :D
 
The Mint Man said:
well find it funny if you like but If it were me I would rather have sold BHP at $30 and now be watching them closly just waiting to jump back in, while you have lost how much?
From memory you were talking (in another tread a few months ago) about how you bought BHP at around $25-26 (correct me if Im wrong) which I agree, that was a decent buy however Today they are under $25.
the people that sold at $30 are the ones laughing, not at you, instead..... all the way to the bank! :D
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Well you are right.

But everyone has 20/20 hindsight. Trading the market in hindsight is too easy, trading forwards is hard.

It is extremely easy to tell people you should have sold at the recent high!

Of course I and everyone else should have, but how the hell was I supposed to know that was the high?? As Buffet says there's no whistle or headline to tell you that was the high.

I will continue to hold BHP and RIO, they are excellent companies, despite market sentiment and fluctuations causing them to dip significantly these past 5 months.
 
wayneL said:
But you see when metals return to sanity, when the long only funds stop buying and start selling due to redemptions, when the massive oversupply of metals from new mines come on line, etc etc etc., that illusory pe of 10 is ipso facto a pe of about 30 or 40.

THEN we can start pricing in the depression/ reduction in demand, and the Ducsters valuation is looking about right.

:D
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Ridiculous...

BHP will be above $35 this time next year....


(I hope) :eek:
 
Realist said:
Ridiculous...

BHP will be above $35 this time next year....


(I hope) :eek:
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"BHP WILL go up to $35 Ya Hear!!! I've invested in you goddammit! You have to go up. My reputation as a Buffettite is on the line!"

There are bigger forces at work though my friend. ;)

bliar.gif
 
Realist said:
Ridiculous...

BHP will be above $35 this time next year....


(I hope) :eek:
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you know the old saying, hope is a four letter word in the market, when you hang onto a losing position because of hope, then you may end up being in deep financial trouble.

Good luck
 
Realist said:
Ridiculous...

BHP will be above $35 this time next year....


(I hope) :eek:
Click to expand...
BHP Has gone from $8 to a high of $32 in the last 3 years its been struggling of late even the $10 billion it made last year couldnt lift it from the present doldrums .Dont get me wrong this is a brillant company but a pullback was on the cards and how far back it gets pulled we will have to wait and see :p:
 
realist dont expect support from the traders. they are just the plebs that let us invest with a safety margin :p:
 
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dr00 said:
realist dont expect support from the traders. they are just the plebs that let us invest with a safety margin :p:
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Yep, a trader will be there to buy your BHP for $12 when you eventually sell them.

bliar.gif
 
your a funny man wayne.problem is its probably true.

ill be there waiting hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!what goes up must come down.at this rate i should be buying for $12 in about 2 weeks.up be the stairs down by the escalator..
 
wayneL said:
But you see when metals return to sanity, when the long only funds stop buying and start selling due to redemptions, when the massive oversupply of metals from new mines come on line, etc etc etc., that illusory pe of 10 is ipso facto a pe of about 30 or 40:D
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Massive over supply? from where?

BHP, Rio and CVRD control 75% of the seaborne iron ore trade and they are still playing catchup with their never ending expansions
BHP is bringing on singnificant copper supply this year, then there isn't much of note until Oyu Tolgoi gets developed in 2008/09
New oil supply is coming from ???????

Prices will drop sure - but volumes will be much higher than pre resources boom. And that volume is generally coming on from low cost brownfields expansion
 
haemitite said:
New oil supply is coming from ???????
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There is lots of oil. The question is the cost of extraction and the environmental consequences thereof.

But agree with oil going much higher. The path it takes may not be vertical though.
 
wayneL said:
Yep, a trader will be there to buy your BHP for $12 when you eventually sell them.

bliar.gif
Click to expand...


Wayne, I agree with Realist, BHP will be at $35 at some point in this financial year.
However I would have had a trailing stop on it in the present climate, Risk measures are necessary.
Wayne its absolute rubbish to think BHP will crash to $12 in the short term, Absolute rubbish!.
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Wayne, I agree with Realist, BHP will be at $35 at some point in this financial year.
However I would have had a trailing stop on it in the present climate, Risk measures are necessary.
Wayne its absolute rubbish to think BHP will crash to $12 in the short term, Absolute rubbish!.
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Better buy some then.

BTW You guys should learn to recognise hyperbole. I actually don't expect BHP to go any lower than...


...say 16.50? :)
 
wayneL said:
Better buy some then.

BTW You guys should learn to recognise hyperbole. I actually don't expect BHP to go any lower than...


...say 16.50? :)
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No BHP, but did get me some RIO & ZFX. I'll be closely watching BHP in the open.
$16.50, dream on, Realist would be peaking!
 
Bearish maybe, but rubbish? BHP is exposed to China. Do you think China will continue to pay what the rest of the world pays for resources?

There are new ventures in China taking shape in all areas of copper, alumina, iron ore, uranium, oil and gas that will supply China with cheaper alternatives than the current supplies.

What we have seen is a resource bubble for sure. I agree with Wayne that prices will still rise, but not at the rate we have seen, which has been driven by rampant speculation.

:2twocents
 
CanOz said:
Bearish maybe, but rubbish? BHP is exposed to China. Do you think China will continue to pay what the rest of the world pays for resources?

There are new ventures in China taking shape in all areas of copper, alumina, iron ore, uranium, oil and gas that will supply China with cheaper alternatives than the current supplies.

What we have seen is a resource bubble for sure. I agree with Wayne that prices will still rise, but not at the rate we have seen, which has been driven by rampant speculation.
:2twocents
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What iron ore alternative? What copper alternative? What uranium alternative?
 
Would think BHP/RIO/XMJ due a bit of a bounce about now.

Seems to be enough fud going round so the men in black might ease up and let the punters buy up for a day or two.


ice
 
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