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Hovnanian (HOV) study
- Thread starter ducati916
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Kauri
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Re: Hovnanian
Buuuuuut, this is not a fundamental trade, this is a short-term trade based on a couple of factors, and I was simply asking for an opinion, analysis, guess, whatever.
So up or down?
Any levels in this timeframe 3mths, that you feel may be relevant important, correlate to Saturn, anything you like.
I'll reveal my position before the market opens, so no cheating.
jog on
d998
Buuuuuut, this is not a fundamental trade, this is a short-term trade based on a couple of factors, and I was simply asking for an opinion, analysis, guess, whatever.
So up or down?
Any levels in this timeframe 3mths, that you feel may be relevant important, correlate to Saturn, anything you like.
I'll reveal my position before the market opens, so no cheating.
jog on
d998
Kauri
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Re: Hovnanian
If it is not a fundamental trade, then could it possibly be a technical trade... surely not.
I am sure you won't mind my cutting and pasting.....
ducati916 said:
If it is not a fundamental trade, then could it possibly be a technical trade... surely not.
I am sure you won't mind my cutting and pasting.....
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Re: Hovnanian
I just love the techies, always jumping to conclusions prior to engaging the old grey matter.
Fact.
Correct, as stated, it is not a Fundamental trade.
But neither did I state that it was a technical trade. The MACD & Bollinger Bands obviously led you to the wrong conclusion.
This is in point of fact a synthetic arbitrage, which really doesn't classify as a technical trade at all, it does however rely on valuation, thus, is closer if you will to a fundamental basis.
jog on
d998
Kauri said:
I just love the techies, always jumping to conclusions prior to engaging the old grey matter.
Fact.
Correct, as stated, it is not a Fundamental trade.
But neither did I state that it was a technical trade. The MACD & Bollinger Bands obviously led you to the wrong conclusion.
This is in point of fact a synthetic arbitrage, which really doesn't classify as a technical trade at all, it does however rely on valuation, thus, is closer if you will to a fundamental basis.
jog on
d998
Kauri
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Re: Hovnanian
You have just got to love obfuscation, always provides a handy exit.
Thanks for the entertainment, and for the bottle of wine my friend now owes me for my predicting your response.. :alcohol:
Nyaapa ngaanya katakurra. Nyuntuka kata purlkanya.
You have just got to love obfuscation, always provides a handy exit.
Thanks for the entertainment, and for the bottle of wine my friend now owes me for my predicting your response.. :alcohol:
Nyaapa ngaanya katakurra. Nyuntuka kata purlkanya.
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Re: Hovnanian
Ya gotta love 'em, techies;
Absolute geniuses in hindsight trading.
jog on
d998
Ya gotta love 'em, techies;
Absolute geniuses in hindsight trading.
jog on
d998
wayneL
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Re: Hovnanian
Lets cut the Duc some slack folks, as a new concept for ASF, this will be interesting.
Lets cut the Duc some slack folks, as a new concept for ASF, this will be interesting.
Kauri
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Re: Hovnanian
:band
Two bottles... love you...
Pampultjarra!!
:band
Two bottles... love you...
Pampultjarra!!
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Re: Hovnanian
Hi Duc,
HOV ... some simple analysis, from the chart you have
supplied, your position is likely to be short, because:
PRICE ACTION
At the recent high, candle count is becoming extreme
at 11, taken from early-November lows.
Using the daily close only, the candle pattern is an
evening star at the recent high, so fall is likely.
Latest two candles have finished on their lows, with
high volume, so likely to be more downside ahead.
---
VOLUME
Increased steadily on rising prices and has maintained
high volumes, as traders have bailed out on the recent
down-days, as well.
---
SUPPORT
Likely to be found at the gap, around 33 on the last upleg.
That 33 level is also a 50% retracement of the most
recent rally from early-November, making it a critical
level for support, where there's likely to be an ambush
for unwary shorts.
---
OTHER INDICATORS
As Bollinger and MACD are both derived from the price
itself, they are lagging indicators and probably only
useful, as confirmation of our previous analysis (???)
---
TIME CYCLES
Would not be short, after 15122006, as there's a
couple of strong and positive cycles coming into
play, over the next couple of weeks.
15-18122006 ... positive spotlight on HOV, could
also bring some very significant long-term changes (?)
22-27122006 ... more positive news ...???
02012007 ... difficult aspect here - finances???
09012007 ... short rally here???
12-15012007 ... 2 cycles here, may bring news of
further difficulties ???
24012007 ... negative cycle, finance-related???
30012007 ... further negative news expected
14022007 ... negative spotlight on HOV
Then, several minor cycles, until a significant and
positive cycle (finances?), on 13032007.
More later .....
---
In summary, our trading plan for HOV, would
roughly read:
Short, until 15122006, then reverse.
Go long, until year's end.
Short in the New Year, until 08012007.
Short the next rally, around 12012007, for a long
ride south ... maybe even until, about 12032007,
then long again.
Hope this helps.
happy days
yogi
=====
Hi Duc,
HOV ... some simple analysis, from the chart you have
supplied, your position is likely to be short, because:
PRICE ACTION
At the recent high, candle count is becoming extreme
at 11, taken from early-November lows.
Using the daily close only, the candle pattern is an
evening star at the recent high, so fall is likely.
Latest two candles have finished on their lows, with
high volume, so likely to be more downside ahead.
---
VOLUME
Increased steadily on rising prices and has maintained
high volumes, as traders have bailed out on the recent
down-days, as well.
---
SUPPORT
Likely to be found at the gap, around 33 on the last upleg.
That 33 level is also a 50% retracement of the most
recent rally from early-November, making it a critical
level for support, where there's likely to be an ambush
for unwary shorts.
---
OTHER INDICATORS
As Bollinger and MACD are both derived from the price
itself, they are lagging indicators and probably only
useful, as confirmation of our previous analysis (???)
---
TIME CYCLES
Would not be short, after 15122006, as there's a
couple of strong and positive cycles coming into
play, over the next couple of weeks.
15-18122006 ... positive spotlight on HOV, could
also bring some very significant long-term changes (?)
22-27122006 ... more positive news ...???
02012007 ... difficult aspect here - finances???
09012007 ... short rally here???
12-15012007 ... 2 cycles here, may bring news of
further difficulties ???
24012007 ... negative cycle, finance-related???
30012007 ... further negative news expected
14022007 ... negative spotlight on HOV
Then, several minor cycles, until a significant and
positive cycle (finances?), on 13032007.
More later .....
---
In summary, our trading plan for HOV, would
roughly read:
Short, until 15122006, then reverse.
Go long, until year's end.
Short in the New Year, until 08012007.
Short the next rally, around 12012007, for a long
ride south ... maybe even until, about 12032007,
then long again.
Hope this helps.
happy days
yogi
=====
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Re: Hovnanian
Wati ngaalu warru ma-tjarrungarrala mantjilkitjalunku mulya pungu. Ngaltjutjara ducati!
Drink it around a warm fire.Kauri said:You have just got to love obfuscation, always provides a handy exit.
Thanks for the entertainment, and for the bottle of wine my friend now owes me for my predicting your response.. :alcohol:
Nyaapa ngaanya katakurra. Nyuntuka kata purlkanya.
Wati ngaalu warru ma-tjarrungarrala mantjilkitjalunku mulya pungu. Ngaltjutjara ducati!
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Re: Hovnanian
yogi
Thank's for taking the time to provide your analysis.
It is always revealing when asking for analysis in public, who the real traders/investors are, and those who talk a lot.
Your analysis agrees with my own in the short time frame that I am looking at, that is over the next 1 to 4 weeks, and that analysis was based on the technicals, specifically MACD & Bollinger Bands.
The position however as stated is a synthetic arbitrage, thus I am neutral and get paid up or down. As this is a synthetic arbitrage, it should be called a RISK arbitrage, as it does carry risk, but it is fixed.
yogi, if you & enzo want the details, PM me, that way I can filter out the peanuts.
kauri
2 for 2..........damn you're good. I'm sure you'll be 3 for 3 later, there's no getting round the fact, hindsight traders are destined to be billionaires.
jog on
d998
yogi
Thank's for taking the time to provide your analysis.
It is always revealing when asking for analysis in public, who the real traders/investors are, and those who talk a lot.
Your analysis agrees with my own in the short time frame that I am looking at, that is over the next 1 to 4 weeks, and that analysis was based on the technicals, specifically MACD & Bollinger Bands.
The position however as stated is a synthetic arbitrage, thus I am neutral and get paid up or down. As this is a synthetic arbitrage, it should be called a RISK arbitrage, as it does carry risk, but it is fixed.
yogi, if you & enzo want the details, PM me, that way I can filter out the peanuts.
kauri
2 for 2..........damn you're good. I'm sure you'll be 3 for 3 later, there's no getting round the fact, hindsight traders are destined to be billionaires.
jog on
d998
Kauri
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Re: Hovnanian
There you go making assumptions again. I actually forecasted that your next post would contain both of the words nonsense and peanuts, so I am 2 from 3.
Maybe it is the lingering affects of the wine, but I am sure you will be able to explain away this apparent contradiction.
Weya wanti. Watjarnu wantitjaku.
ducati916 said:
There you go making assumptions again. I actually forecasted that your next post would contain both of the words nonsense and peanuts, so I am 2 from 3.
Maybe it is the lingering affects of the wine, but I am sure you will be able to explain away this apparent contradiction.
Weya wanti. Watjarnu wantitjaku.
Realist
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Re: Hovnanian
I would not short this stock at all.
For the purpose of this experiment I will buy long at 35.69 and hold for 4 weeks.
The odds are in my favour, shorting don't work folks!!
I would not short this stock at all.
For the purpose of this experiment I will buy long at 35.69 and hold for 4 weeks.
The odds are in my favour, shorting don't work folks!!
wayneL
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Re: Hovnanian
LOL
Realist said:I
shorting don't work folks!!
LOL
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kauri
Obviously you have cognitive problems.
The trade is a synthetic arbitrage. That is not a technical trade.
I use this style, precisely because I have no faith in technical analysis, mine included. Therefore, although I included my *technical* analysis to Yogi [due to his time spent in providing his analysis for me] I assign a 50/50 outcome to my analysis based on the technicals.
Technical analysis is a 50/50 proposition. I don't like 50/50.
jog on
d998
Obviously you have cognitive problems.
The trade is a synthetic arbitrage. That is not a technical trade.
I use this style, precisely because I have no faith in technical analysis, mine included. Therefore, although I included my *technical* analysis to Yogi [due to his time spent in providing his analysis for me] I assign a 50/50 outcome to my analysis based on the technicals.
Technical analysis is a 50/50 proposition. I don't like 50/50.
jog on
d998
tech/a
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Thats what your getting on your fundamental thread!!!
If you learnt how to turn a profit from less than 50/50 win rate you wouldnt frustrate the hell out of yourself constantly looking for the Holy Grail.
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tech/a said:
Currently that's true.
However, we are not even at 1yr for any of the portfolio, and even less for the later purchases. As to being frustrated, not yet, if it's the same or worse in 2.5yrs, then I might concede frustration.
Besides, technical analysis is not a systems methodology. TT is a systems methodology, it's most certainly not technical analysis.
jog on
d998
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