Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Household economic performance

krisbarry said:
I would stear very clear of the housing market for the next 4 years. Some very nasty things are unfolding. House prices have out-stripped wages so something has to give! I am so glad I do not own or hold property. Get out while you still can or hold onto your seats, the big roller coaster has hit the top and is ready to crash right back down.

These figures were released today.

Man, some families must be REALLY struggling out there....




Median house prices and percentage of weekly wage needed to pay home loan

Median house price Percentage of weekly

wage needed to pay loan

Sydney $511,000 36.4 p/c

Canberra $366,000 19.8 p/c

Melbourne $352,000 29.9 p/c

Brisbane $307,500 32.8 p/c

Perth $275,000 25.9 p/c

Darwin $275,000 17.8 p/c

Hobart $271,000 30.4 p/c

Adelaide $270,000 27.8 p/c

Source: AMP-REIA home loan affordability report
 
ghotib said:
Do you mean things like water tanks or solar power, where the savings presumably will increase as the resource prices rise?
Ghoti
In short, yes.

Water tanks wouldn't make too much financial sense where I live (Hobart) since the mains supply is unmetered (99% of the water coming down the River Derwent flows out to sea unused apart from hydro-electricity so there's no real point in saving it).

But if I was looking at something like solar power or a heat pump etc. then I would look at the aspects of that in itself without thinking "am I over capitalising on this house". If the savings make it pay then who cares about whether or not it adds to resale value of the house?

In terms of how much does it need to return, most energy saving systems etc. are pretty conservative investments with tax free benefits hence I'm willing to accept a relatively low return on capital. As a benchmark I would use the mortgage rates to see if it stacks up since capital could be borrowed at that cost if need be.

:2twocents
 
tech/a said:
My son of Bags.
KRIS.

I agree with you.
Lock down mortgages.If your in the position to sell mortgaged property and place profit in others to freehold then do that.Should be slowley edging up rents each year and should have been doing that for a couple so far.
The run up is over,time to steady the ship.

Ghotib
Just do it---follow the dream.The fall wont be dramatic----maybe 3-5% unless your inner city.
The evidence that I am seeing in Hobart is that nominal prices most certainly are dropping. The recent trend is for asking prices to drop below psychological price barriers so that they ""look" cheap.

If I were to buy today then I could basically buy a 1980's brick house for what I would have paid for 1950's weatherboard (same area) 12 to 18 months ago. Bigger blocks of land and bigger houses too.

A few "desperate looking" sales seem to be starting to appear. Empty properties with the price noticeably lower than others in the area.

Just what I've observed. With the ongoing construction boom here I just can't see it ending well for those who have borrowed heavily for speculative investments in property.

Other states may be different so do your own research. :2twocents
 
Interesting reading through this thread. I gather most of the posters are blokes? Owning versus renting advantages/disadvantages have a fair bit to do with at what stage you buy in the property cycle. While living in New Zealand I was paying 23% in the 70's on a mortgage for an investment property. However, the capital gain during the time I owned it meant that interest was pretty much meaningless in terms of the bottom line when I sold it. Rents were also very high at the time.
Now own my home outright and it has doubled in value in the last two years.
The other factor no one seems to have taken into account (maybe because you are blokes?) is the emotional value of owning one's own home. If I were renting, I wouldn't be particularly interested in adding value via creative gardening etc, but in actual fact derive lots of satisfaction from this aspect of property ownership. It's not all about making money either. I've just installed a heat pump for the pool the $11,000 value of which I will never get back on selling. Doesn't matter. I enjoy the warm pool. It's easy to lose sight of the reason most of us try to make enough money: isn't it so that we can enjoy life? I've known a lot of people who have made constant money making their only aim, and who have unexpectedly met an untimely end.What good did all that money do them? Once there's enouh to provide a comfortable retirement, why not just enjoy what it can buy?
Sorry if I've gone off the track of the original thread. Just the meanderings of one person.

Julia
 
Here is the comparison:

A 3 bedroom Bungalow style family home 7 km from the city of Adelaide could in 2000 be purchased for a bargain price of $155,000

NOW....

That same house in 2005 is worth $400,000

AND....

for that same $155,000 in the same location at current 2005 prices buys you a 2 bedroom dumpy cream brick 70's unit. (Hang on a minute, I'll just change into my flared pants, and tie-dyed peace hippie T-shirt and smoke a pipe) LOL

Hmmmmm.... Its not rocket science, but VALUE in housing has outstripped wages, and something has to give, and yes it has already started. House prices are falling, finally!
 
krisbarry said:
Hmmmmm.... Its not rocket science, but VALUE in housing has outstripped wages, and something has to give, and yes it has already started. House prices are falling, finally!
When an average wage will not buy even a modest house there are only two real possibilities. One is that employers are about to be hit for, and actually pay, large pay rises with a degree of backdating (or even larger rises if not backdated) or the period of rapid house price inflation is over. The latter seems more likely IMO. :2twocents
 
Julia.
Exactly the sort of thing you should be doing to enjoy your OWN property.
I know of many who have even "Over capitalised" on their own home improvements.10 yrs later that over capitalisation isnt an issue.
By the way us "Blokes" like to be proud of our homes like you Gals.

Most of our IP's are more luxurious than home--but home has a feel that only those living in it can create.--Know what you mean.
As for enjoying success again cant agree more--keep telling my 80 yr old dad the same thing.He and mum are still capable of most things---me I spend more time travelling than at the office---or so it seems.

Kris

Thats happenned twice before in my lifetime.It will happen again.Housing prices are relaxing but I,d hardly call them falling.Every property I look at is only slightly negotiable.I will have 2 on the market very soon and their expected sale price is beyond what I'd have thought---and beyond last years prices.Just had 4 properties valued and they ALL were valued at more than 12 mths ago.

Over the years I have always seen FEAR in both the Realestate and Stock Markets when prices reach spike extremes.It does happen more often than youd think.I cant understand this reaction if those making it have implemented risk reduction stratergies.
In the stock market this can be done in the stroke of a key board.
Property in loan lock down and sensible gearing.

There are times for increased exposure and times for risk reduction---simply dont play the same game for ALL occasions.
 
tech/a said:
I will have 2 on the market very soon and their expected sale price is beyond what I'd have thought---and beyond last years prices.Just had 4 properties valued and they ALL were valued at more than 12 mths ago.

.

Just questioning your reason for selling now, if as you say that house price are not falling, or are you getting out b4 the fall, which will eventually hit Adelaide too, if it hasn't already.
 
Kris.
My aim is passive income.

The 2 I'm selling are in my veiw at their current peak in value.
You live in Adelaide so are aware of Seaford and Seaford rise.
It is here that the 2 are.They also have the least equity in them.
$$ wise not % wise. There is about 130K in each while their value is around $250K.
Of the 9----2 are freehold selling these will allow me to place another in freehold. So of the 7 left 3 will be un encumbered returning good rent (2 of them the other is our home) 3 others are Esplanade between Moana south and Pt Norlunga---they have the greatest long term potential as they are still sub $600k each which is crazy for esplanade property---anywhere else in a major city (Including Aldinga,and Sellicks--10 k down the track) are $800k to 1 million plus.

Its a calculated decision to increase cashflow decrease gearing and decrease exposure to possible interest rate increases.The final position will see me positively geared to 11% Interest Rates if they become a reality.

I have some good deductions from other dealings so am not to fussed re capital gain on these 2.(2005/2006)
With 7 left best positioned for passive price increase due to where they are (One is Commercial and flying ,possible super contribution if accountants can convince me!) I think youll agree Im not abandoning the property market.

I'll also be left in a strong position to seek other funds if a "bargain" comes up.
EG 20,000 squ meters of land to sub divide---.

Im just balancing the property books NOW while everything is nice and slow.

tech
Must have a beer sometime.
 
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