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House prices to stagnate for 'years'

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michael_selway said:
when do u think depression will come if it does come?

http://www.depression2007.com/

Still cant believe this guy may be right?

thx

MS
Click to expand...

There is plenty of precedent for the views of the socionomicists(?)... just not recently.

I don't know how right he will be, but he will be "more" right than the permabulls IMO.
 
It would be hard to deny that the global trend is towards higher interest rates. A key plank of the permabulls has not only been eaten by termites and collapsed, it's completely vanished.
 
Bobby said:
Hello Wayne,

Your having a drink tonight arn't you , ask me how I know !

Best wishes
Bob---himself,.
Click to expand...

No grog, but in a particularly good mood
 
Bronte said:
Perth M.H.P. was: $308,000 Sept Quarter
Perth M.H.P. now: $455,000 June Quarter (just relaeased)
Phew! Up a whopping +$147,000 in nine months
Click to expand...
Well our bank is allowing us to sell one property without effecting the existing mortgage (fixed at 6.47%) ......nice of them.
We think our South Perth apartment close to the Swan River will have to be sacrificed
 
Thanks to all ASF members that gave advice, we are happy with this decision.
 
A smart investor only has to do 3 things right..


1. Find the right investment, a solid company, a nice house, a reliable car...

2. Do not buy it if it is expensive. Be very patient.

3. Buy it if it is cheap and hold onto it for as long as possible.


What I am saying is, buyers who jump into purchasing a house when they are expensive are not investing wisely.

Houses like shares go up and down, people like always have short memories - I think they are forgetting houses can go down.

I'm not in the Wayne bear crash depression camp, but he does have some valid points about housing and it is overvalued - simple as that.

Ben Graham said it himself "Never, ever pay too much for anything"
 
I guess Krisbarry would be eating his words.
Almost a year ago he said, as the originator of this thread, " only a fool would be buying realestate in this current market."

In that time Perth real estate has climbed around $150,000.
Well there must be many fools out there, including me !
Rob.
 


Well Unless you sell today Rob - it aint over yet!!

Perth may stay overvalued for many years to come and interest rates may not rise any further.

I would not think either is possible though.

I'm not saying you did the wrong thing, only time can tell that.
 
More houses appearing for sale in Hobart at prices below the "band" of the past two years. Looks like it's breaking down finally. A nice 12.5% off so far seems to be achievable. Even more if you put in an offer and don't simply pay the asking price.

But let's not underestimate the benefits of real estate. LEVERAGE. Those who bought with a 95% mortgage, a situation not uncommon for first home buyers, in typical suburbs of Sydney or Hobart 2 years ago are now well and truly bankrupt, at least in a technical sense. They have lost ALL their deposit and repayments over the past 2 years. Don't buy over priced assets, especially not with high leverage...
 
But... but... but.... houses never go down!

 
"In the United Kingdom, the records from the Domesday Book of 1068
show that capital growth (in property) has averaged almost 10%
for more than 900 years."
 
Bronte said:
"In the United Kingdom, the records from the Domesday Book of 1068
show that capital growth (in property) has averaged almost 10%
for more than 900 years."
Click to expand...

Reference?
 
Bronte said:
"In the United Kingdom, the records from the Domesday Book of 1068
show that capital growth (in property) has averaged almost 10%
for more than 900 years."
Click to expand...
"Perth real estate is certainly not stagnant.
86 people a day are presently migrating to WA
This equates to 50/60 extra homes required per day.
We have been busy buying prime real estate since 1998"
Quote from last October...this thread.

We have been buying at least one property per year since 1998
Today we decided to list our first property to Sell.
 
Bronte said:
"In the United Kingdom, the records from the Domesday Book of 1068
show that capital growth (in property) has averaged almost 10%
for more than 900 years."
Click to expand...

Run an excel spreadsheet to blow that one up.

This is the value of an average property working backwards from £200,000 at 10% for 900 years

£0.000000000000000000000000000000012274562975616

LOL
 
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