House prices to stagnate for 'years'

Tysonboss1 · 17 November 2007

Flying Fish said:
Why would you want to live in a big city? they serve no purpose

In my post I didn't say I did want to live in a big city,.... how ever people live in the capital cities for all sorts of reasons,...

All I said was that so many other people obviously do want to live in the city because the populations of our capital cities are growing and there by putting more and more pressure on the cost of land.

Tysonboss1 · 17 November 2007

numbercruncher said:
I think he means if your a Nurse, Teacher , Policeman , Truck Driver etc he beleives its normal that you cant afford a house in any of Australias capital cities*shrug*

I dont think its normal, or healthy .....

whether it is normal of healthy is not really up to me,...

It's a bit like saying crude oil is to expensive and that it should be $20 a barrel,...

the truth is yes it used to be $20 a barrel,... but like anything when every body wants it and the supply is limited the price must go up.

there is simply not enough land in and around the cities,.... If people want to buy a home they have to change there attitude,...

forget about the 1/4 block 4 bedroom home,... it might be the average family home may have to be a 3bedroom town house or Apartment.

I live in Chatswood in sydney there are 2 bedroom apartments selling next door for $600,000,...... even a smaller home on a average block goes for
$1.5million.

the simple fact is that there is not enough land,.... even if the government capped house prices at $100,000 and said it is illeagal to sell a house for more than $100,000 it would just mean that half the population would have very cheap housing and the other half would have no house at all because the land does not exist.

I can easily see that in 20years even a high income earner will struggle to get a loan for a house even on the fringe of the suburbs,

Tysonboss1 · 17 November 2007

Flying Fish said:
So who can afford it?

In the future ownship of Australian capital city properties will be limited to,

Sopisticated Property investors,,.. High income earners,,.. People that start young with great money managing mindset,... People that look outside the box when it comes to structures which they use to buy the property etc.etc

In the future the people who won't own property are,

Low income earners, middle and high income earners with bad money management, People who can't think outside the box.

Already if you want to raise your family in a home that you own you have to look at it from a 3 or four stage process beginning with a savings and financel education plan from your first job.

you can no longer blow your money through your early 20's and arrive at 28 with nothing and expect to buy a house because you just want one.

the last property boom has knocked alot of people out of property,... the next will be the one that will lock 90% of the people that haven't already got property holdings out of the market for ever.

numbercruncher · 17 November 2007

There is no shortage of land in Australia, we are a continent the size of Mainland USA or Europe, our entire population is less than the two most populous cities on the planet.

Developers, Governments etc are sitting on loads of land, lack of release contributes to artifically high prices.

The cost of a house (ie/ building a new house) is actually quite cheap and affordable imho, you can get 25sq for like 130k.

Im sorry but i dont share your future vision of 20 years time were you believe even high income earners will struggle to buy in outer suburbs, I envision that everything returns to its longterm mean.

Our American cousins are experiencing that adjustment as we speak.

Tysonboss1 · 17 November 2007

numbercruncher said:
There is no shortage of land in Australia, we are a continent the size of Mainland USA or Europe, our entire population is less than the two most populous cities on the planet.

I aggree that we are not short of land,..... what I am talking about is land within 25kms of our major cbds,....

In my first post on this thread I said that housing is not unaffordible,... and that every can afford to buy a house,.. just not in the capital cities,....

a 17 year old part time mcdonalds woker could afford to pay off a 4 bedroom house over 30 years in broken hill,....but he would have buckleys chance in paramatta.

robots · 17 November 2007

hello,

its utter crap that people think police, nurses, fireman etc are on low wages too, they are renumerated quite well

in VicPol, police are on around 70k a year and I would imagine a healthy 15% super too

even cleaners are getting good dollars now, I saw ad on Seek for $50/hr for cleaner

dead on tysonBOSS, they expext to rock up and get single fronted in bondi straight of the cuff

thankyou

robots

Tysonboss1 · 17 November 2007

Flying Fish said:
what utter crap.

House prices in most Australian capital cities adjusted for inflation over the last 30years on average have grown by 10%pa,....

wages have grown by no where near 10%p/a,.....

it's simple maths gradually land around the capital cities will be out of reach,... it's not rocket science. and releasing more land is just a short term fix.

Tysonboss1 · 17 November 2007

numbercruncher said:
Im sorry but i dont share your future vision of 20 years time were you believe even high income earners will struggle to buy in outer suburbs, I envision that everything returns to its longterm mean.

.

Well the longterm mean is that property increases in value by 10%pa.

if somthing increases in value by 10%pa,.... in 7 years its doubled and in 14years it has increase in size by 4 times.

so it is not unlikly that a house in a capital city will be worth 8 times more in 20years.,.. which yes i believe will push the limits of even high income earners

numbercruncher · 17 November 2007

robots said:
in VicPol, police are on around 70k a year and I would imagine a healthy 15% super too

Annual increments are payable. Currently a constable can expect to be earning $50,950 p.a by their fourth year of service.

http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=117

robots said:
even cleaners are getting good dollars now, I saw ad on Seek for $50/hr for cleaner

$50 x 38hrs x 52wks = 98,800 p/a

*yawn* anymore fallacies for debunking please post below .

NC over n out.

robots · 17 November 2007

hello,

and the 7-weeks annual leave, 15 sick days and other generous benefits

so a cleaner shouldnt earn 98k/year?, get real NC, I hope they can earn what ever they can and you too for that matter

what are you whining about if you dont want to live in capital city, like you say plenty of other places to go, hopefully with out internet connection

thankyou

robots

numbercruncher · 17 November 2007

Tysonboss1 said:
Well the longterm mean is that property increases in value by 10%pa.

if somthing increases in value by 10%pa,.... in 7 years its doubled and in 14years it has increase in size by 4 times.

so it is not unlikly that a house in a capital city will be worth 8 times more in 20years.,.. which yes i believe will push the limits of even high income earners

And your belief that even high Income earners wont be able to afford even on city fringes is based on ?? Wages never going up ? Perhaps this will happen if the people vote Costello for Prime minister and his fellow cult members from the HR Nicolls society take the reigns, who knows eh ?

Tysonboss1 · 17 November 2007

numbercruncher said:
And your belief that even high Income earners wont be able to afford even on city fringes is based on ?? Wages never going up ? Perhaps this will happen if the people vote Costello for Prime minister and his fellow cult members from the HR Nicolls society take the reigns, who knows eh ?

Well wages rarely grow by 10%pa,.. It is not likly that a job paying $100,000 this year will be paying $800,000 in 20 years.
even if inflation does push wages that high, inflation will push property prices equally higher again

I am not saying high income earner won't be able to afford a property,... I am just saying they won't find it as easy as they do today,... offcoarse they would be able to buy an apartment or a town house,.... but proabally not a nice house on a 1/4 acre block,.... infact there would probally not be many 1/4 acre blocks left.

if you looked at the outer sydney suburbs 20 years ago then looked ant them today it amazing how much they have changed,.... imagine the growth over the next 20 years,.... I mean they are already building apartment blocks in suburbs 30kms from sydney,.... as far out as campbelltown, this would have been unimaginable 20years ago.

numbercruncher · 17 November 2007

robots said:
hello,

and the 7-weeks annual leave, 15 sick days and other generous benefits

Still isnt 70k p/a salary Robo, Is that how you hook people up with 500k mortgages bit of "creativity" ?

so a cleaner shouldnt earn 98k/year?, get real NC, I hope they can earn what ever they can and you too for that matter

I never said anything of the sort, I think Cleaners should be paid substantially more than R/E agents, Mortgage brokers and other similar creatures ... Least its an honest Business, The question is whether they earn 100k p/a as you claim.

what are you whining about if you dont want to live in capital city, like you say plenty of other places to go, hopefully with out internet connection

thankyou

robots

Im not whining, merely adding to opinion/debate , Is that still ok to do ?

robots · 17 November 2007

hello,

that's right you shouldnt add to the debate,

because you do NO research in relation to how RE is going except making strange statements after somebody comments on what is happening out in the world

did you go to any auctions today?, look up any recent sales? NO NO NO

another good day for RE in melbourne today, around 900 properties auctioned, should be around 80% clearance, went to five, solid as, care to refute this NC with you're own research

thankyou

robots

numbercruncher · 17 November 2007

Relax Robo, you seem to be working towards a coronary .....

I remember you writing the otherday that no one seems to be buying Investment property unless thier Income is 150k plus and the Government claims the average wage is 55k .... That must have some effect on demand already ?

You claim i do no research, yet Im forever substantiating comments with links and quotes - you were the one who just claimed 70k police wages with zero proof - pot calling the kettle black or something ?

I have no Problem with realestate going up up up and away, I have no reason to doubt your St Kilda properties are, Im more into the exploring the Hows and Whys, Ifs and Buts of the overall market than specific pockets.

If the Global economy stalls or wages stagnate surely its not so hard to ponder that Houses at 8x average salaries as opposed to the 4 to 5 times long term average must have some take in them rather than just give give give, or is this a sacreligious concept to hardened property bulls, was no one here alive during the 90s?

On a side note just read the Gold Coast Bulletin, 2001 Census was 10,022 Victorians on the GC, 2006 census down to 3,010, seems house prices have chased them out the article claims (cheaper in Melbourne) ....

Who whudda thunk it.

Flying Fish · 17 November 2007

numbercruncher said:
http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=117

$50 x 38hrs x 52wks = 98,800 p/a

*yawn* anymore fallacies for debunking please post below .

NC over n out.

wat do police do ?

numbercruncher · 17 November 2007

Flying Fish said:
wat do police do ?

Is this a trick question ?

I guess they are the thin blue line between order and disorder

theasxgorilla · 17 November 2007

robots said:
in VicPol, police are on around 70k a year and I would imagine a healthy 15% super too

Actually most of them get a bit over 50k, but their super is up around 28% (very healthy). Detectives and specialists get more of course, but not everyone is a detective.

I have a friend who is a cop and he lives 20ks from Melb CBD in a two story 4br house in a very nice setting. Then again, he didn't actually MAKE his money being a cop...he made it in property

Tysonboss1 · 18 November 2007

numbercruncher said:
Relax Robo, you seem to be working
If the Global economy stalls or wages stagnate surely its not so hard to ponder that Houses at 8x average salaries as opposed to the 4 to 5 times long term average must have some take in them rather than just give give give, or is this a sacreligious concept to hardened property bulls, was no one here alive during the 90s?

Who whudda thunk it.

Well I am not a hardened property bull,...

My investing journey begun with shares,.... and I still love investing in shares.

However I personally have made alot more money in property in the last few years,

Offcoarse econmic factors do effect property prices but the driving fundamental longterm factor is population growth,.... so property will have it's ups and downs but over the last 50 years most cities have averaged 10% growth always out stripping wages growth,....

The property cycle generally works in this order,.... Up,... Flat,...Down,...Flat,...up,... Flat ,... Down,.. flat and so on with the up years ranging growth of between 10%-40% and the down years between -1% to -10%. and the flat years are normally 1year between the ups and down

probally even more so than with shares the good investors will be making money in the ups, flats and downs....

theasxgorilla · 18 November 2007

Tysonboss1 said:
Offcoarse econmic factors do effect property prices but the driving fundamental longterm factor is population growth

I think that the perceived ability of the population to afford property is what is as likely to drive prices. IF the lenders and the borrowers think they can risk/afford to lend/borrow $500k over 50 years to buy their piece of the so-called Aussie dream, then every single time a lender lends a bit more or a borrower borrows a bit more then that transaction contributes to an increase in the stats.

And when everyone is believing what is written in the papers about the end of something or another then we all get nervous together and wait for the stories about rate rises and such to become old news again before we wade back in and start bidding prices up again.

Any truly impacting fundamental crunch for property has to be accompanied by unemployment IMO, and we haven't seen a tap of that kind of problem for a decade or so (with the exception of the IT sector, post 2000. And that was really just a shuffling around of people anyhow...very, very few who wanted to work found themselves unable to get jobs).

House prices to stagnate for 'years'

Tysonboss1

Tysonboss1

Tysonboss1

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

Tysonboss1

robots

hello

Tysonboss1

Tysonboss1

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

robots

hello

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

Tysonboss1

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

robots

hello

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

Flying Fish

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Tysonboss1

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

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