House prices to keep rising for years

[robots]

hello,

come on, shilling, keen and imber are all into spreading propaganda,

these guys spruik all the headlines then behind the scenes take out great mortgages themselves,

these guys wouldnt look you in the eye

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Enjoying these UK reports ... Pretty interesting stuff.

Sounds like they are doing a bit worse than aus.

Any idea why they, and the US, are suffering these falls, especially when their rates are so much lower than ours?

It strikes me that Aus could be doing much worse than it is!

Im convinced the Oz market is doing stacks worse than the Media ( who are in bed with the spruikers) are currently reporting !

Watch the carnage when they cant hide the truth from the Sheeples any longer !!

Anyone using ASF would of known about this great crash 12 months ago and been all ready for it though hey ??

 

[natashia]

Im convinced the Oz market is doing stacks worse than the Media ( who are in bed with the spruikers) are currently reporting !

Watch the carnage when they cant hide the truth from the Sheeples any longer !!

Anyone using ASF would of known about this great crash 12 months ago and been all ready for it though hey ??

Well we could flip the coin and ask would anyone have known when property was overtaking the sky's limits and prices kept escalating to the oblivious? ....I wonder how many sold too early and cut themselves short of thousands!! That's another way to look at it..
Its not so great after the fact is it.

 

[Pommiegranite]

I've just offloaded a property for $510K. Its a 4 months old project home. I haven't sold it too cheap or too pricey. It was on the market for a couple of months and I had offers for arounf $480K. There seem to be a lot of 'bargain' hunters around these days.

Anyways....the same house on the same size block of land would cost the buyer around $570K (Including stamp duty). Surely some of these project home builders are suffering declining sales. With cost also rising, some have to be on the verge of closing down. Surely not many people are that silly to enter a new build contract these days?

 

[Mofra]

Im convinced the Oz market is doing stacks worse than the Media ( who are in bed with the spruikers) are currently reporting !

NC, I'd ask what you are basing that on, but I have my own theory (for outer-suburban areas anyway) based on conversations I've had with people in default management (1 bank, 1 mortgage intermediary).

The default rates reported in the media are actually filtered down results of lenders taking action (non-banks lead the actions taken with 80%+ despite only representing a small fraction of the market themselves).
Banks can routinely take over 180 days to repossess a property, by which time the borrowers may sell prior to an "official" repossession being lodged.

Had a rule of thumb guide of tripling the repossession rate to get some idea of the real rate of forced sales, however can't substantiate this.

 

[pepperoni]

Im convinced the Oz market is doing stacks worse than the Media ( who are in bed with the spruikers) are currently reporting !

Watch the carnage when they cant hide the truth from the Sheeples any longer !!

Anyone using ASF would of known about this great crash 12 months ago and been all ready for it though hey ??

Do you mean this ASF?? With the house thread being "house prices to keep rising for years" and the original thread "house prices to stagnate" being locked ha ha

Im as bearish and anyone on property but where I am, whilst there is some weakness in areas, some average or poor properties are still smashing records?????

One property with a crumbling shell of a house and no view in a nothing part of northbridge went for $1.6m ... over 300k above what anyone would have expected. Really shocking. Another 300m away the same week with a livable house, better aspect and DA passed in without a sensible bid other than the vendor at 1.48?????

I think overall the market is down a bit on average and prices on average are possibly at or a bit below 2004, but there are still sales at WTF high prices just like during the boom????

I think our market is inexplicable resilient compared to the US and UK and that only a recession or higher rates will cause the crashes they have had.

But Im hoping it will all crash and burn in hell much sooner having sold up in late 2006 haha.

 

[wildkactus]

Have seen some of these WTF prices you are talking about on the Gold coast.
We were looking at a property in the kirra area which sold at $200K above our bid, which was above market anyway, it turned out that it was the guy who own the adjacent blocks, making sure he had the land for a future development.

So I guess now we are starting to see the land bankers starting to come in.

 

[pepperoni]

So I guess now we are starting to see the land bankers starting to come in.

I do remember after the "tech crash" around the start of the last boom an auctioneer saying "when shares are down property goes up".

I thought he was nuts with so many taking a net worth hit on shares and super but low and behold property started to go nuts???

In 2006 I anticipated prices being flat till now in my part of Sydney but from here Im more like an even bet on steady fall to steady increase.

 

[robots]

hello,

bit more spruiking from the usual suspects,

http://compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-493855

could always pull the pushie out to get that litre of milk or get the walking shoes on,

are we down to 4x income yet?

thankyou

robots

 

[motion]

Again I have to agree house prices are on the rise in areas people want to live in the most . The thing I hate is the agent saying the house will go for 550k to 600k but it ends up going for around 680k to 730k and this is not uncommon at the moment as this has been the case 8 out of the last 8 auctions we have been too..

I think there is a lot more money out there than people are making out. Off to auctions tomorrow so will see what it brings....

 

[Tysonboss1]

One property with a crumbling shell of a house and no view in a nothing part of northbridge went for $1.6m ... over 300k above what anyone would have expected. Really shocking. Another 300m away the same week with a livable house, better aspect and DA passed in without a sensible bid other than the vendor at 1.48?????

I think overall the market is down a bit on average and prices on average are possibly at or a bit below 2004, but there are still sales at WTF high prices just like during the boom????

.

your not to far from where I live, I think parts of the north shore will outperform the rest of sydney, thats the thing with property you can never paint the whole market with one brush and if you try you will always be wrong atleast 50% of the time.

 

[gfresh]

I think many are still thinking an early 2000's type pullback (which is in their most recent memory), rather than an early 90's, or early 80's pullback where unemployment soared.. Looking at the precarious states of the world economies, I think it's more likely to be the latter.

I know I had this argument with my brother, who bought in that period, and now looking at a investment property - "but it was like that when we bought our first place, and now it's worth heaps, so we're looking at buying now". Whereas I'm of the argument, it's still got a bit further to go before diving in.

There still is a lag time of 12-36 months before we really see too much flow on, and if we assume mid 2007 was the peak, the trough may not be until mid 2009-2010 Most people seem to be of the mindset that recovery may be next year in property based on their most recent memories of more minor economic contractions. Maybe it will be just that, and I'll be wrong,but anybody who has been following the world markets (as most of us do here) will see, this is more a once in 30 year event, rather than a once in 7.

A few businesses we deal with at work are going into liquidation, and people are bitching and whingeing and times as I see it aren't even hard yet. When your mates, or members of your family start losing their jobs, or finding it really hard to find work, then you know times have changed for the worst. At the moment I know in my circle, it's definitely not like that.

I think there is a lot more money out there than people are making out.

Depends when they bought I would have thought. Even 2 years ago they may be sitting on still solid gains if they're selling now. Thing is if they buy now, expecting they're picking the bottom, and in 2 years time it's still flat, or even negative, was there any point they're probably losing money in this interest rate environment if they added up all the true costs.

 

[gfresh]

We were looking at a property in the kirra area which sold at $200K above our bid, which was above market anyway, it turned out that it was the guy who own the adjacent blocks, making sure he had the land for a future development.

My suburb What are your thoughts on the area?

For me, it confuses me a little to be honest! The beaches here are some of the most beautiful in Australia, I will grant that being attractive to live for that aspect. However the affordability...

Everybody here, other than a certain (mostly baby boomer) bracket doesn't seem that wealthy, nobody seems fully employed with 9-5 jobs. There is no established industry, other than tourism, which doesn't pay all that well for those that work in it. Finding a "professional" job with anything other than a small company is pretty difficult anywhere on the Gold Coast. Even then, wages are lower than Melbourne or Sydney.

It's 40 minute hell-drive to the "main" centre of the gold coast, making it a fair distance to where most of the established companies are located. I do it each day, but I've probably got more tolerance than some for that sort of thing - most think I'm crazy for doing it.

I earn probably just above the average wage, and I definitely seem to be the exception. Not many drive flashy cars, and there isn't much outward display of wealth. People who live nearby seem quite poor to be honest, constant churn through rentals.

There are a lot of high rise ($600k+) apartment blocks going up along the beach. But who is buying these things? It's definitely not me or the people around me. Some of the rent on these are $400+, which is definitely out of reach of the "average" local. People just don't clear $1000/wk to be able to afford that sort of place to live in.

My only assumption is that it may be a bit like Surfers, Broadbeach, etc with them going to overseas and interstate investors. And I guess there is also the sea-change mentality, people who have earned their wealth elsewhere and off to live here to take it easier.

 

[Mofra]

Again I have to agree house prices are on the rise in areas people want to live in the most.

Agree, the typical "flight to quality" that characterises the transition period from "boom over" to "more stable pricing".
I'd hate to be holding mortgage belt properties, but no way am I looking to offload anything close to the CBD.

 

[Macquack]

My suburb What are your thoughts on the area?

For me, it confuses me a little to be honest! The beaches here are some of the most beautiful in Australia, I will grant that being attractive to live for that aspect. However the affordability...

Everybody here, other than a certain (mostly baby boomer) bracket doesn't seem that wealthy, nobody seems fully employed with 9-5 jobs. There is no established industry, other than tourism, which doesn't pay all that well for those that work in it. Finding a "professional" job with anything other than a small company is pretty difficult anywhere on the Gold Coast. Even then, wages are lower than Melbourne or Sydney.

It's 40 minute hell-drive to the "main" centre of the gold coast, making it a fair distance to where most of the established companies are located. I do it each day, but I've probably got more tolerance than some for that sort of thing - most think I'm crazy for doing it.

I earn probably just above the average wage, and I definitely seem to be the exception. Not many drive flashy cars, and there isn't much outward display of wealth. People who live nearby seem quite poor to be honest, constant churn through rentals.

There are a lot of high rise ($600k+) apartment blocks going up along the beach. But who is buying these things? It's definitely not me or the people around me. Some of the rent on these are $400+, which is definitely out of reach of the "average" local. People just don't clear $1000/wk to be able to afford that sort of place to live in.

My only assumption is that it may be a bit like Surfers, Broadbeach, etc with them going to overseas and interstate investors. And I guess there is also the sea-change mentality, people who have earned their wealth elsewhere and off to live here to take it easier.

I agree.

The downside for "low income" earning "locals" is that Kirra is a world renowned surfing location. Current world champion Mike Fanning is a local. Also, eight-times world champion Kelly Slater rates Kirra as the best point breaking wave on the planet. With such recommendations, sounds like a good place for a beachside apartment.

 

[Tysonboss1]

I think many are still thinking an early 2000's type pullback (which is in their most recent memory), rather than an early 90's, or early 80's pullback where unemployment soared.. Looking at the precarious states of the world economies, I think it's more likely to be the latter.

.

heres a 5 min commentary you may be interested in,

http://www.propertyinvesting.com/go/299

 

[Tysonboss1]

I agree.

The downside for "low income" earning "locals" is that Kirra is a world renowned surfing location. .

that doesn't sound like a down side to me.

 

[Macquack]

that doesn't sound like a down side to me.

Downside in reference to housing affordability as the "locals" compete with wealthy investors from across the globe for local real estate.

 

[wildkactus]

Gfresh,
I was looking to buy the property for my folks as there retirerment home. the area is what they liked, quitish, close to the beach & airport, an not in the middle of the GC.

I myself also think the area has a lot of growth Potential, but as you said it's not for the 9-5 worker at present, it is really a place for the retirerment crowd, Surfer or the self employed, but that said so was surfers 20 yrs ago.
I think this whole area south of palm beach is the best part of the coast, and is a really good spot to live, also think that the property in the area will be some of the hottest on the coast in the future, as there is just becoming less land that close to the beach and with the block sizes that are still on offer. The height restrictions on building are also a good thing as this will limit the amount of dwellings that can be built in the area.

From what I can see most of the apartments are going to O/S or intersate buyers, there is a property seminar up here (HK) for AUS property every couple of weeks.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Downside in reference to housing affordability as the "locals" compete with wealthy investors from across the globe for local real estate.

well obviously expecting a low income earner to beable to afford prime beach front land is not really realistic, we live in a supply and demand market economy.... If there is not much of somthing that allot of people want then it will go to the person willing to pay the most for it.

As the area has more and more wealthy people wanting a slice, then lower income earners must lower their expectations and settle for less than there dream beachfront 5 bedroom home,

Maybe if they absoulutly have to live in the area then renting is there only option, i mean saying that people should be able to always afford to buy into a certain location just because they were born there is a bit crazy.