House prices to keep rising for years

[wayneL]

There are trollish posts creeping back into this thread. Let's stick to proper debate.

Fair warning OK guys

 

[pepperoni]

Figures released today by the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) show the median price for a detached Melbourne home in the March quarter was $432,500, down 8.4 per cent from the December 2007 median of $472,250.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23601336-31037,00.html

 

[numbercruncher]

Figures released by the REIV in Feb say that the Dec 2007 Median was actually 485k instead of the 472 claimed in that article, indicating a 10.8pc drop

http://reiv.com.au/news/details.asp?NewsID=617

 

[CAFA1234]

Figures released by the REIV in Feb say that the Dec 2007 Median was actually 485k instead of the 472 claimed in that article, indicating a 10.8pc drop

http://reiv.com.au/news/details.asp?NewsID=617

So, when is a government going to be brave enough and take on all the vested interests and legislate to ensure timely and accurate information
e.g. force all closing transaction (when signed) prices to be published in real time (maybe allow 48 hours for those hard worked real estate people).

I can't think of any other market where one has to make a buy / sell decision based on 3 /5 month old data. Would you buy BHP shares today if you only had 3 month old data? Of course your stockbroker / real estate agent / broker / lender all have very recent data.

The vested interests don't want to share their price knowledge as it allows them to continue to play games with the 90% of non-industry individuals.

It is shocking and they should be ashamed of themselves.

Of course the real estate industry will put up one reason after another as to why this is not a good idea of the technology does not exist.

I say bull***t to that - we put a man on the moon and he came back 40 years ago - this is just a database. Regulate the industry NOW.

 

[numbercruncher]

With prices crashing Realtors have worked out ways of keeping the bottom line bumping along !

GREEDY real estate agents have fleeced homeowners, tenants and landlords by increasing sneaky fees and charges by 16 per cent over the past year.

Preying on the rental and property markets across the country, agents have subsidised their income from home sales and commissions with an increases in hidden costs.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23579071-5013951,00.html

Not a bad deal that RE business, they win all the way up and all the way down

 

[gfresh]

Now agents have the job of convincing vendors their properties maybe aren't worth as much as they initially thought, simply to get a sale, and their commission in their pocket. Those BMW payments aren't cheap..

That works on the way down too

 

[CAFA1234]

Now agents have the job of convincing vendors their properties maybe aren't worth as much as they initially thought, simply to get a sale, and their commission in their pocket. Those BMW payments aren't cheap..

That works on the way down too

With a tad of luck it will remove some of the 'Johnnie come lately' lads from the market - maybe the second car market is holding up, or they can give financial advice to little old grannies.

 

[Macquack]

With prices crashing Realtors have worked out ways of keeping the bottom line bumping along !



http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23579071-5013951,00.html

Not a bad deal that RE business, they win all the way up and all the way down

I have developed a new view of business practices in Australia.

If your not robbing somebody, your out of business!

 

[robots]

hello,

gee wow look at that, for the last 4 yrs prices have dipped in the March quarter

many would love that on a stock (hint hint)

its tough when you cant do much about it though

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

gee wow look at that, for the last 4 yrs prices have dipped in the March quarter

many would love that on a stock (hint hint)

its tough when you cant do much about it though

thankyou

robots

So is a 10pc dip in the March quarter the usual ?

 

[robots]

hello,

look at the graph, every march quarter has dipped,

goodluck

thankyou

robots

 

[explod]

hello,

look at the graph, every march quarter has dipped,

goodluck

thankyou

robots

A friend I have in the r/e business stated that the fall in the last quarter was caused by the last month of it.

So next quarter could be towards 20% drop, who knows ?

Looks like a good sector to stay away from for awhile

 

[robots]

A friend I have in the r/e business stated that the fall in the last quarter was caused by the last month of it.

So next quarter could be towards 20% drop, who knows ?

Looks like a good sector to stay away from for awhile

hello,

exactly explod,

you are well entitled to your investment decisions explod just like anybody else

thankyou

robots

 

[theasxgorilla]

look at the graph, every march quarter has dipped,

So you combine seasonal weakness with real weakness and you get substantial weakness...to state the obvious. Hope all you bargain hunting bears are cashed up. If history is anything to go by the bargains might not last that long in the scheme of things.

 

[wayneL]

I'm wondering if it's a bit of a statistical anomaly.

8.4% is an enourmous drop for one quarter, we would definitely have heard of that sort of dumpage in real time.

Even though a bear, I don't believe it. If it was real, people would be slitting their wrists already.

<edit to add> We've had a MoM ~2.5% in the UK(can't remember the exact figure) and the doomage is palpable and comes only after months of negative sentiment, gnashing of teeth and extremely low turnover... in short, a Mexican stand-off between buyers and sellers.

It takes a while for sellers to eventually blink, in my experience... unless the whole market is going to hell in a handbasket. Which it isn't, yet.

 

[explod]

So you combine seasonal weakness with real weakness and you get substantial weakness...to state the obvious. Hope all you bargain hunting bears are cashed up. If history is anything to go by the bargains might not last that long in the scheme of things.

From here in Victoria on average prices need to fall 30% to reach fair value. Of course as allways happens in a sell off panic takes it below fair value before the recovery starts. So at least 50% fall and then I will be ready.

 

[numbercruncher]

8.4% is an enourmous drop for one quarter, we would definitely have heard of that sort of dumpage in real time.

We did hear about it in real-time, but the Bankers the realtors and the media are all in bed together and get to paint things over and shrug them off.

Weve had all the individual snippets of news but not one single media outlet connects all the dots.

Individual news reports on many things such as record amounts of properties to market, nose diving clearance rates, Worst affordability to income ratio on the planet, falling applications for and dollar figures on finance, good chance of more rates rises, and many more individual news items. But nearly each of these things gets dismissed by an expert, or some feeble but believable to the masses excuse released.

As I mentioned I beleive Melbournes median fall for last quarter was 10.8pc using figures from the REIV itself, but a double digit quarterly decline would be unacceptable for public release and could possibly trigger panic selling is why Im thinking its been fudged or errored

The next quarter is what seals the deal.

Watch this space

 

[numbercruncher]

Heres an entertaining and oh so true read about how Australia got in such a bubbly bubble Ill quote a little .....

This yarn (Aussie for story or tale) about Australia’s housing bubble, arguably of even greater proportions than the US and UK bubbles is largely the story of one man, my old mate (Australian vernacular for buddy) John Symond.

From here events take a predictable turn. With the financial stars aligned for mortgage brokers, mortgage originators, financial packagers and securitisers, valuers, conveyancers, lawyers and a horde of assorted hangers-on the US model to bubbledom was adopted. We got lo-doc and no-doc loans; no longer did you have to prove your income; you just “stated” it and paid a few points more in rate. Principal was deferred, wrapped or made into a “balloon” that was never paid as mortgages were refinanced before the new shrubs in the garden could grow more than a few feet. With almost unlimited access to funding, Aussies and Kiwis (natives of New Zealand) went on a buying binge unequalled in history. Houses had no established intrinsic worth anymore, all you had to know is that they were going up 20, 40, 60% a year so you just HAD to get into that market and buy that house right now. This indeed was the way to health, wealth and happiness.

Those of us old enough to remember previous booms were continually proven wrong.....$360K for that piece of junk I said; they’re joking!! The opening bid was 600K!!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/danielcode/2008/0116.html

 

[wayneL]

We did hear about it in real-time, but the Bankers the realtors and the media are all in bed together and get to paint things over and shrug them off.

Weve had all the individual snippets of news but not one single media outlet connects all the dots.

Individual news reports on many things such as record amounts of properties to market, nose diving clearance rates, Worst affordability to income ratio on the planet, falling applications for and dollar figures on finance, good chance of more rates rises, and many more individual news items. But nearly each of these things gets dismissed by an expert, or some feeble but believable to the masses excuse released.

We heard about value concerns real time, all of which I agree with and have shoved down people throats as much as the next bear, but there were no anecdotes of being severely crunched on price in the last quarter... only really that properties were starting to stick.

I mean that is full blown crash figures for a quarter... are we really seeing that yet?

 

[numbercruncher]

Yes I think the full blown crash is starting, 10pc is huge ! Im guessing most is currently being shaved from the top so far, Medians are great for stirring bubble mania but they look equally bad on the way down too.

And check this out, what I was going on about the Median being changed or fudged or whatever, The medians are shown clear as a bell here in the age ,in the same article only paragraphs apart and it doesnt even look like the reporter noticed!

MELBOURNE house prices have recorded their biggest quarterly fall in value since 1993 as interest rate rises and fears of a slowing economy dull buyers' appetites for homes.

The median price for a detached home in Melbourne in the March quarter was $432,500, a slide of 8.4% from the December quarter median of $472,250.

The sharp fall will raise the hopes of many people who have been locked out of the housing market in the nation's housing affordability crisis.

The National Australia Bank yesterday lifted its variable mortgage interest rates by 0.1 percentage points, raising its standard variable home loan rate to 9.46%. On Thursday, the ANZ bank decided to raise rates by 0.1 percentage points.

Real estate agents and property experts had tipped a cooler market this year after Melbourne's median price surged 23.4% in 2007 to $485,000.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/rates-hit-home-prices/2008/04/25/1208743253101.html

lol gotta love the realestate game.