House prices to keep rising for years

Beej said:

Speaking of which ABS house price series out today: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

Headline: ABS national house price index up 4.2% for the Sept quarter, and now 6.2% year/year to Sept quarter.

City by city results: (qtr/qtr/ y/y):

Sydney 4.3%/5.9%
Melbourne 4.7%/8.4%
Brisbane 4.4%/5.6%
Adelaide 1.7%/3.7%
Perth 4.5%/4.4%
Hobart 1.8%/5.4%
Darwin 3.4%/12.3%
Canberra 4.3%/7.8%

Cheers,

Beej
Sydney

Cheers,

Beej

Click to expand...

A sure indicator of a market out of control, run for cover when it reverses.

Beej said:

Speaking of which ABS house price series out today: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

Headline: ABS national house price index up 4.2% for the Sept quarter, and now 6.2% year/year to Sept quarter.

City by city results: (qtr/qtr/ y/y):

Sydney 4.3%/5.9%
Melbourne 4.7%/8.4%
Brisbane 4.4%/5.6%
Adelaide 1.7%/3.7%
Perth 4.5%/4.4%
Hobart 1.8%/5.4%
Darwin 3.4%/12.3%
Canberra 4.3%/7.8%

Click to expand...

Paul Braddick, head of property and financial systems analysis at ANZ, said the housing industry and policy authorities have a lot of work ahead to ensure supply issues don't further skew house prices.

Migration added 439,000 people to Australia's population in the year to March 2009, the strongest increase on record, he said. But dwelling completions are forecast to fall below 130,000 in the year ahead, he said.

"Unless significant action is taken to remove the structural impediments to housing supply, Australia will face an intractable shortage of housing that will drive a deterioration in housing affordability beyond anything we have ever seen before," Mr Braddick warned.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26293347-5018001,00.html

Click to expand...

I don't think the insertion of a "smiley face" is really totally appropriate given the current situation.

Beej said:

Give the man a cigar! As stated, these are early, indicative results - DYOR to be sure what's going on in your target suburbs. Over the days/weeks/months following any given weekend 100% of the sales data becomes available and is used to formulate the various house price index results that get published. RP Data actually publish supposedly more accurate city by city auction clearance rates on each Thursday following the weekend - they claim waiting until then let's them get more comprehensive and accurate data from the agents.

Speaking of which ABS house price series out today: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

Headline: ABS national house price index up 4.2% for the Sept quarter, and now 6.2% year/year to Sept quarter.

City by city results: (qtr/qtr/ y/y):

Sydney 4.3%/5.9%
Melbourne 4.7%/8.4%
Brisbane 4.4%/5.6%
Adelaide 1.7%/3.7%
Perth 4.5%/4.4%
Hobart 1.8%/5.4%
Darwin 3.4%/12.3%
Canberra 4.3%/7.8%

PS: Prof Keen has now officially lost his house price bet with Rory Robertson, (which was based on the ABS house price index), and I'm looking forward to coverage of his walk from Canberra to the Snowy Mountains!

Cheers,

Beej

Click to expand...

Meanwhile its kid in a candy store time for anyone looking to buy outside of the major cities. Just when you think it cant get any better… it does. If its 0.5% tomorrow the flood gates will open.

0.5% will indicate to me that your party is over, the banks are going to extract every last cent out of the mortgagees. Thanks for saving the economy by buying some houses folks... now enjoy years of interest rate rises while your house price just sits there looking like a stunned mullet!

Beej said:

Give the man a cigar! As stated, these are early, indicative results - DYOR to be sure what's going on in your target suburbs. Over the days/weeks/months following any given weekend 100% of the sales data becomes available and is used to formulate the various house price index results that get published. RP Data actually publish supposedly more accurate city by city auction clearance rates on each Thursday following the weekend - they claim waiting until then let's them get more comprehensive and accurate data from the agents.

Click to expand...

I understand that Beej, and that's what Satanoperca covered in his post.

I, on the other hand, was referring to the accuracy within the presented data itself..........all the numbers are there and it should be simple to reconcile them against each other, yet they don't seem to add up

cheers

I reckon rates go up .5% tomorrow.

hello,

yes yes yes, great info Beej and Dr Keen wont front for the walk

looks like he got the big capital L on his forehead like all the others at GPHC, all the anti-property bloggers

sold his apartment to back himself up too, hahahahahahahaha

bring on the next one Macca, hahahahahahaha

hahahahahahahahaha, hahahahahahaha, hahahahahahaha

oh man, life

sorry sorry i know i know i know, interest rates are going to 50%, unemployment to 50% because a blogger told me so, its like Japan, interest rates are going to ZERO, loans are going to be for 5000yrs

thankyou
Doctor Robots

robots said:

hello,

yes yes yes, great info Beej and Dr Keen wont front for the walk

looks like he got the big capital L on his forehead like all the others at GPHC, all the anti-property bloggers

sold his apartment to back himself up too, hahahahahahahaha

bring on the next one Macca, hahahahahahaha

hahahahahahahahaha, hahahahahahaha, hahahahahahaha

oh man, life

sorry sorry i know i know i know, interest rates are going to 50%, unemployment to 50% because a blogger told me so, its like Japan, interest rates are going to ZERO, loans are going to be for 5000yrs

thankyou
Doctor Robots

Click to expand...

Here's your new avitar robots, suits well and explains your posts all in one go.
You'll have to resize it somewhat.

hello,

yes it is very clear that i sure are on a higher level than most Mr Burns (especially here at ASF)

not from that dangerous weed though, things you will never experience the glory of

well done to those with titles today, as expected data out from ABS showing the number one asset at it again

thankyou
Doctor Robots

robots said:

hello,
bring on the next one Macca, hahahahahahaha

hahahahahahahahaha, hahahahahahaha, hahahahahahaha

oh man, life

Click to expand...

Why are you having a go at me.........it's not my fault Enzo cant get his figures straight

I go to the trouble of putting up something interesting I found while looking through the numbers and asked why they don't make sense, and all you do is post this kind of dribble...........what, is my calculator broken or something

cheers

MACCA350 said:

I understand that Beej, and that's what Satanoperca covered in his post.

I, on the other hand, was referring to the accuracy within the presented data itself..........all the numbers are there and it should be simple to reconcile them against each other, yet they don't seem to add up

Click to expand...

Well that's possibly a straight error in the REIV published results. Check their website today - have they corrected any of the numbers? When I check such calcs on the APM reported numbers they seem to add up - have you checked the APM Melbourne auction results for the weekend against the REIV numbers?

Cheers,

Beej

hello,

not having a go Macca, just discussing the issues around Property and S.Keen has been one interesting issue

thankyou
Doctor Robots

hello,

just in case:

ABS Stats Melbourne up 8.4% YoY, 4.7% Qtr

paradsie man

thankyou
Doctor Robots

hello,

sunshine and lollipops

well called professors, utopia

thankyou
Doctor Robots

QBE LMI predicts 23% price growth

Australia's capital cities will enjoy double digit house price growth over the coming three years, a new report by lenders' mortgage insurance firm QBE LMI has claimed.

The company's Housing Outlook 2010-12 report highlights record-low interest rates as being a key factor both in alleviating mortgage pressure on households and in maintaining affordability. Other positive cited include healthy rental returns, housing shortages and price reductions in top-end properties giving home owners the opportunity to trade up.

http://www.yourmortgage.com.au/news/3422/default.aspx

A new report is warning rising interest rates will lead to climbing defaults on home loans in the Australian mortgage market.

The report by investment bank JP Morgan and Fujitsu Consulting found housing affordability has barely improved, despite interest rates being near 50 year lows.

Households remain highly indebted, with first home buyers borrowing on average 25 per cent more than they did before the global financial crisis.

Fujitsu Consulting's managing consulting director, Martin North, says house prices here remain among the most expensive in the world.

"In Australia, the average price compared with income, is a lot higher than the UK or the US, or almost any other Western country. And what that means is that most people have to pay more than they would in those other markets.

"So affordability at low levels of interest rates are roughly at long-term levels, but of course as interest rates go up then affordability will deteriorate quite rapidly."

While Martin North does not believe Australia has a house price bubble, he does believe the high prices are due to a large supply shortage.

"It depends how you define a bubble. If you look back since 1990, house prices have moved up dramatically and consistently, with a few wobbles. We've seen areas of the market move up very quickly. So, for example, the First Home Owner Grant stimulated the bottom end of the market," he said.

"I don't think we're in a bubble. I think it's a much more fundamental economic question, which is, what is the right supply and demand equilibrium point in the housing industry?

"I think, at the moment, we've got the situation where we have a lot of demand and we haven't got enough supply, and therefore long-term rates are high, prices are high, and what that means is not so much a bubble as a longer-term economic challenge."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/06/2706219.htm?site=local

hello,

great trainspotter, sure isnt bubbleland

everybody i am just going to have a bath and enjoy a chicken snitzel sandwich, glass of pepsi and will be back soon

thankyou
Doctor Robots

trainspotter said:

QBE LMI predicts 23% price growth

Click to expand...

A mortgage insurance company better hope for rises like that otherwise they'll be down the shute very quickly when the defaulters start to roll in.

I think it's industry BS.

The mass recognition of any bubble is the sound of it popping.

drsmith said:

The mass recognition of any bubble is the sound of it popping.

Click to expand...

Exactly oil was $147 dollars with very sound fundamentals that ensured it would go to $200 plus That wasn't a bubble either We could blame the speculators !What were they saying about properties fundamentals again Low supply heaps of demand and of course the RBA is going to stop a bubble forming Better late than never I suppose but being cynical I'd say that guarantees we are at the end of a bubble

Beej said:

Well that's possibly a straight error in the REIV published results. Check their website today - have they corrected any of the numbers? When I check such calcs on the APM reported numbers they seem to add up - have you checked the APM Melbourne auction results for the weekend against the REIV numbers?

Click to expand...

My first post on ASF (although been reading a lot), so be gentle

What I fail to understand is why do we have to rely on Enzo to provide dodgy (or not) numbers. Why don't we have transparency in the RE market, just like any other market?

People are following articles in the electronic and printed media, like a herd, without being able to make an informed decision when buying / selling a property. These articles are driven / payed for by interesants, resulting in massive confusion and a distorted market.

I mean, goverment (state or canberra) must know all the RE transactions results to collect stamp duty - isn't this info public property (if not, it should)?

And why can't you fine experts apply technical analysis techniques to the RE market (median figures maybe) and reach a conclusion (or at least an agreeent)?

Cheers, Joshua

trainspotter said:

QBE Loan Mortgage Insurance predicts 23% price growth

Australia's capital cities will enjoy double digit house price growth over the coming three years, a new report by lenders' mortgage insurance firm QBE LMI has claimed.

The company's Housing Outlook 2010-12 report highlights record-low interest rates as being a key factor both in alleviating mortgage pressure on households and in maintaining affordability. Other positive cited include healthy rental returns, housing shortages and price reductions in top-end properties giving home owners the opportunity to trade up.

http://www.yourmortgage.com.au/news/3422/default.aspx

Click to expand...

Loan Mortgage Insurance is a rort.

One of the new breed of 'insurance products' (product my a*se) that requires one party to pay a premium for the benefit of insuring another party!

If you default on a loan, it is not you who benefits from the insurance, but your lender.

The report goes on about housing affordability. I suggest this form of rip-off insurance be scrapped which will improve housing affordability.