House prices to keep rising for years

[MrBurns]

hello,
OH YEAH:
http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162
apologies for the late posting of auction result, MASSIVE 83%
hahahahahahaha, paradise hey WayneL? the one and only supreme country up there as usual
thankyou
Doctor Robots

Dodgy figures.

 

[robots]

It might come sooner than that, I can feel a chill in the wind.

hello,

keep the spruiking going, herd the $ into the cfd betting agencies, forex companies, futures brokers, option brokers,

handout crew

thankyou
doctor robots

 

[MrBurns]

hello,

keep the spruiking going, herd the $ into the cfd betting agencies, forex companies, futures brokers, option brokers,

handout crew

thankyou
doctor robots

Keep the dollars in the bank waiting for the bargains, it wont be long now.

The BS meter is off the scale, thats a sure sign the party's almost over.

 

[DB008]

This is my first post on this thread. And, to be honest, l haven't been bothered to read the 100 other pages.
As was said in the very first post, there is a limited supply and building isn't keeping up with supply= price rise, simple.

 

[ojm]

Robots, you are tops. Have never had as many laughs out of one person on a forum before. Perhaps the Late Show with Prof (or Doctor?) Robots in the near future?

On the topic of property, I am looking at buying my first in the near future. Perhaps a one bed apartment in Footscray. Would suit my price range quite nicely. However, am still uncertain if there is going to be much growth in the market for the next few years.

 

[robots]

hello,

thanks OJM, life is a great ride brother and i hope my contributions have made it even more enjoyable for you

not sure of your position regarding buying to live in or to rent out joint,

tomorrow when you walking down the path to get a latte dont look at the next 10 steps and where it leads you but look at where the next 100 steps will take you

dont buy new, buy old, slow and steady the way many go

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[robots]

hello,

check check:

http://www.theage.com.au/business/n...ouse-prices-to-keep-rising-20091030-hpyx.html

not-surprised commentary from Mr(dont come to me unless you have 500k)Bailey, these guys never "suggest" property ever, but hey diversify the $ into some shares (management/kickbacks) and yes Managed Funds

good night, kickin off Dreamtime to line up another terrific day tomorrow

thankyou
doctor robots

 

[italiandragon]

*Sigh* You have posted that silly report here many times - it is rubbish, and has been covered in this thread many times before. See this article at Business Spectator for a pretty solid debunking:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...a-Dogma-$pd20090129-NQTPP?OpenDocument&src=mp

Cheers,

Beej

many times?

Considering that was my 4th post in this forum, I doubt it. I did post it ONCE before. It was in March, the second of my posts.

You call it it silly and rubbish.

I don`t.

Respect other`s people opinions.

And I will respect yours even if the article you quote comes from this source:

"Christopher Joye writes Business Spectator's property blog and is managing director of research group Rismark International which produces the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic House Price Indices. "

which to me is not neutral either...

 

[italiandragon]

This is my first post on this thread. And, to be honest, l haven't been bothered to read the 100 other pages.
As was said in the very first post, there is a limited supply and building isn't keeping up with supply= price rise, simple.

yes ...right...hang on: let me hurry up to buy that unit for $500,000 before it reaches $1,000,000 next year and $2,000,000 in 2011.....

No its not brand new, its a "renovator`s delight", basically I need to demolish it totally and remove the asbestos just enough to let it otherwise tenants may get mesothelioma...

Or I could buy RARE land for the cheap price of JUST $299,000 in a RARE UNKNOWN suburb which may explode....whatever.

I`m going to rent paying much less than the mortgage and invest my cash in the stock market which gave me already very good returns this year.

 

[wayneL]

Respect other`s people opinions.

Indeed.

Many argue as if our opinion was important for the future of prices.

NEWS FLASH: It isn't!

House prices will do what they will under the pressures of supply and demand (whether manufactured or not).

I argue prices >>>>****should****<<<< be much lower. But they aren't, and the truth is, nobody knows whether that will change.

I just know that value is very poor. I won't be buying any more properties for investment purposes until this rectifies itself.

 

[basilio]

Came across an economic analysis of the current situation and looking forward and backward.

It's view of all economic activity is depressing basically because of the huge level of indebtedness we currently face. Naturally housing is seeen as yet another vastly overpriced product.

]Stoneleigh, the world economy seems to be suffering from two great structural woes at present, namely stubbornly high energy prices that are linked to demand that is persistently ahead of the supply curve, and a level of debt that has destabilized the global finance and banking systems. Can you explain for us the scale and structure of this debt and to what extent write-downs and quantitative easing (QE) have solved this problem?

Firstly, I would say that the energy prices that currently seem stubbornly high should fall substantially as the speculative premium evaporates and demand falls on a resumption of the credit crunch. The sucker rally that has spawned all the talk of green shoots is essentially over in my opinion. The result should be a reversal of a number of trends that depend on the ebb and flow of liquidity - we should see stock markets and commodity prices fall, a significant resurgence in the US dollar and a large contraction of credit. The scale of the reversal should be substantial, as should its effects on energy demand. Demand is not what one wants, but what one is ready, willing and able to pay for, and in a severe credit crunch the capacity to pay for supplies of most things will be severely reduced.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50573

 

[Beej]

many times?

Considering that was my 4th post in this forum, I doubt it. I did post it ONCE before. It was in March, the second of my posts.

You call it it silly and rubbish.

I don`t.

Respect other`s people opinions.

And I will respect yours even if the article you quote comes from this source:

"Christopher Joye writes Business Spectator's property blog and is managing director of research group Rismark International which produces the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic House Price Indices. "

which to me is not neutral either...

Apologies for the "many times" reference then - I did recall correctly that you posted the exact same article in the thread though, and it has certainly been posted many times by other typically "hit and run" posters. This thread is like deja vu where the same arguments have come up for YEARS, with such certainty from the bear side, and yet they continually have proven to be completely wrong based on what has actually happened in the market.

OK I do respect others opinions, but I maintain that if you are basing a negative view on the AU property market on that demographia report, then I think you will turn out to be wrong. The Demographia report is patently rubbish - it's analysis so one dimensional and simple that it produces conclusions like the Sunshine Coast being more expensive that New York City and London! Fails to even consider things like the fact area's exist where cashed-up big earning retirees might buy when they stop working?? I mean it's pretty obvious stuff....

As for biases etc, at least Chris Joye declares who he is, unlike the author of your cited report who does not. In fact RP_Data make there money from statistics collections, distribution etc, so they make money whether prices are going up or down (like a commercial stock market data provider). Joye has also authored reports on housing affordability for the Howard government, and I believe also worked at the RBA, so others might also argue that he in fact is an expert in the AU residential property market. Anyhoooo....

In the meantime Melbourne auction clearance rate still very high, Sydney posted 71% yesterday on preliminary APM figures (http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf), reporting 216 sales with a $735k median, so lot's of higher prices sales.

Indeed.

Many argue as if our opinion was important for the future of prices.

NEWS FLASH: It isn't!

House prices will do what they will under the pressures of supply and demand (whether manufactured or not).

I argue prices >>>>****should****<<<< be much lower. But they aren't, and the truth is, nobody knows whether that will change.

I just know that value is very poor. I won't be buying any more properties for investment purposes until this rectifies itself.

I agree that none of our opinions matter in terms of actually driving what outcome occurs. But it might matter for our own long term personal financial position with regard to what decisions we each make about property based on our opinions!

Re value, I have seen *some* value out there. However, personally I'm not buying investment property either right now, equities have more income/growth potential IMO and that's where my spare cash is going right now. I think though the debate should also consider PPORs as that is of interest to many, and if I didn't already own my PPOR, I *would* consider now as good a time as any to take that plunge.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[joeyr46]

I agree that none of our opinions matter in terms of actually driving what outcome occurs. But it might matter for our own long term personal financial position with regard to what decisions we each make about property based on our opinions!
Agreed but different opinions are useful in that they offer other potential reasons for falling or rising house prices and give food for thought.
Back in the eighties I listened to stories of the great depression thinking that was a bubble (well it lasted a lot longer ) which is a bit scary because it will fully retrace back to the start as all bubbles do.
Mentally it makes no sense as that means a collapse of the monetary system etc. I seriously hope I'm wrong but house prices are Dependant on three things not two. Supply and Demand and liquidity or a willing lender and a willing borrower, value has no bearing other than to make someone a willing buyer but if the lender sees no value then there is no transaction.
At the moment I don't believe people see houses as value but are being driven by fear they might miss the boat. As for a recovery of the economy (which is more than needed to drive house prices higher) I am hearing a lot of stories that are not saying recovery and the charts of the major stocks say more trouble ahead. the next 3 months are going to be very interesting But you have to look at long term charts not just 10 year or so
Beej you asked were I got the figures for every $16000 you should get $40 rent can't remember the name of the book but I think it was Ridges guide to Real Estate (written after the great depression dont know when exactly) but they gave figures for real estate and how it fared in the 30's If you fully owned it and recognised what was happening and had more than 1 property you could reduce the rent and get tenants and cover rates which in many cases rose very rapidly to allow councils to survive. However at least the bank did not close with all your money so you still had more than most. A lot of properties were auctioned just to cover back taxes apparently. Can this happen again, almost certainly as are debts are way above what they were then.

Re value, I have seen *some* value out there. However, personally I'm not buying investment property either right now, equities have more income/growth potential IMO and that's where my spare cash is going right now. I think though the debate should also consider PPORs as that is of interest to many, and if I didn't already own my PPOR, I *would* consider now as good a time as any to take that plunge.

Cheers,

Beej[/QUOTE]

 

[MACCA350]

Dodgy figures.

No doubt.
I recorded last weeks figures started a spreadsheet to keep track............first dodgy thing I noticed was this:

TOTAL AUCTIONS......24/10/09.......01/11/09

This week....................818..............339
Last Weekend..............603..............837
This time last year........862..............170
Next Week...................400...............N/A

Seems Enzo forgot the hard figures he reported on how many auctions he used for last weeks figures ...........then he expected 400 auctions this week yet came up short by 61, hmmm

Dodgy brothers mate

 

[MACCA350]

I tell you what, it's a nightmare trying to reconcile his report, nothing really adds up.

For example take this weeks S,SB & SA against the total and you get 81.7% NOT 83%
Add up the total houses, units & land and the number does not equal total auctions or just those sold............really they should equal those sold since they are used to generate the median yet there are far more than were reported sold so those medians are fudged using guesstimates of values of many of those that didn't sell

Mate, my mind is going into melt down looking at these figures.........looks to me like creative accounting gone wrong, I mean if you're going to fudge the numbers at least reconcile what you report

What am I missing fellas, where am I going wrong

cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

people arent allowed to cancel an auction during the week,

thats right they have to contact the real estate police, constable Macca, inspector Satanoperca, superintendent WayneL, front desk Dave to make sure its okay

i hope you put this much effort into the number of second hand bicycles selling in the Trading Post, is there a site on bicycle prices crashing

thankyou
Doctor Robots

 

[MrBurns]

Seems Enzo forgot the hard figures he reported on how many auctions he used for last weeks figures ...........then he expected 400 auctions this week yet came up short by 61, hmmm

Dodgy brothers mate

It's Enzos job to pump up the real estate industry, no matter what the reality is.

 

[MACCA350]

hello,

people arent allowed to cancel an auction during the week,

Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 2

Nope, not it...........next?

 

[satanoperca]

Hi Macca,

I did the same thing a couple of weeks ago. Recorded all auctions on REIV website and then tried to reconcile with results on Monday. Gave up.

It was my belief that the REIV auctions results should be seen as indicative of the market only, put in a variance of -5% are you will be closers the reality.

The only value that came out of the exercise was to do your own research so that you can self determine if prices are up or down for your given target suburbs.

Cheers

 

[Beej]

Hi Macca,

I did the same thing a couple of weeks ago. Recorded all auctions on REIV website and then tried to reconcile with results on Monday. Gave up.

It was my belief that the REIV auctions results should be seen as indicative of the market only, put in a variance of -5% are you will be closers the reality.

The only value that came out of the exercise was to do your own research so that you can self determine if prices are up or down for your given target suburbs.

Give the man a cigar! As stated, these are early, indicative results - DYOR to be sure what's going on in your target suburbs. Over the days/weeks/months following any given weekend 100% of the sales data becomes available and is used to formulate the various house price index results that get published. RP Data actually publish supposedly more accurate city by city auction clearance rates on each Thursday following the weekend - they claim waiting until then let's them get more comprehensive and accurate data from the agents.

Speaking of which ABS house price series out today: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

Headline: ABS national house price index up 4.2% for the Sept quarter, and now 6.2% year/year to Sept quarter.

City by city results: (qtr/qtr/ y/y):

Sydney 4.3%/5.9%
Melbourne 4.7%/8.4%
Brisbane 4.4%/5.6%
Adelaide 1.7%/3.7%
Perth 4.5%/4.4%
Hobart 1.8%/5.4%
Darwin 3.4%/12.3%
Canberra 4.3%/7.8%

PS: Prof Keen has now officially lost his house price bet with Rory Robertson, (which was based on the ABS house price index), and I'm looking forward to coverage of his walk from Canberra to the Snowy Mountains!

Cheers,

Beej