House prices to keep rising for years

[Gordon Gekko]

Gordon Gekko,

The USA overhang on the global economy is yet to be full realised and will be felf by the world and sundry in time.

China will continue to imerge as a global powerhouse but like all periods of growth the road with be pathed with potholes that will cause ripples in dependant economies like Oz.

What all this means for Oz RE is for those that have crystal balls but sooner or later the IOU's become worthless.

A tip to happiness.

Always decant a aged bottle of red to discover the pure essence of
love

Yes I happen to enjoy a good bottle of red every evening
A tip for you which I live by is:

Live modestly, travel extensively

And the US overhang which you mention above is not at all in IMHO not priced in, if that is what you meant.

G

 

[satanoperca]

Live modestly, travel extensively

I couldn't agree more.

As for the US it is all smoke and mirrors for the rest of the world until another Lehman Brothers has a heart attack on debt.

 

[Nyden]

Yes I happen to enjoy a good bottle of red every evening
A tip for you which I live by is:

Live modestly, travel extensively

And the US overhang which you mention above is not at all in IMHO not priced in, if that is what you meant.

G

You drink a bottle of wine every day? Your liver must be trashed.

 

[MACCA350]

hello,

i agree Cutz, this share trading provides no wealth at all, no benefit to GDP, nothing

non-productive and ties up mega-capital which should be used for other purposes,

thankyou
professor robots

You're joking aren't you ............other purposes like providing companies with capital to continue to employ people and produce all manner of products and services

cheers

 

[satanoperca]

You drink a bottle of wine every day? Your liver must be trashed.

Only if it is a bad bottle, so my doctor tells me.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

You drink a bottle of wine every day? Your liver must be trashed.

Well actually I enjoy a good bottle of wine with my much younger beautiful wife before retiring on a large pile of money under my mattress in a villa that is paid for by the company.

All the best

G

 

[Beej]

You're joking aren't you ............other purposes like providing companies with capital to continue to employ people and produce all manner of products and services

cheers

Share TRADING provides exactly zero capital for companies to use to employ people, conduct productive enterprise etc. Who exactly do you think you are trading shares with? Ask company CEO's what they think of traders who short their companies shares on market for example.....Active traders are really profiting by clipping/arbing the capital as it passes through the supposedly "efficient" market, and yet many here (not all) have the audacity to look down on property investors, bankers etc as sort of societal leeches!

The share market can at times provide the ability for companies to raise needed capital, but it is long term investors/funds etc usually providing that rather than active short term traders.

EDIT: To be clear, I am not critising share trading, I use to day trade myself a few years ago for a while. I see nothing wrong with legally profiting from any opportunity that markets of any sort provide for those willing to have a go and take the risk, property included. I'm just trying to point out the hypocritical stance of some when it comes to the property market in particular.

Anyway this thread has gone a bit off topic - the title is "house prices to rise for years" (?) - I think it is clear they will be rising in Australia for the next few years, and after a dip last year have certainly risen strongly across the board this year, as was in fact predicted by several posters going back to early last year on this and the "prices to fall" thread.

With regard to the economic arguments around the allocation (or mis-allocation) of capital that may or may not result from supposedly high house prices (although there are actually lot's of cheap houses/units in all cities as is continuously pointed out here), and the resulting economic cost, perhaps a new thread should be started to discuss the issue of efficiency of capital allocation in general, and the impact of the housing market on this specifically? Then we can discuss that issue away from the context of what we think house prices are going to do, rather than what we think they should do.

PS: A bottle of red a day does keep the doctor away! Well certainly a glass or two does anyway (which is what I usually partake of most evenings!)

Cheers,

Beej

 

[wayneL]

This forum needs an ignore function...

You can do it through your User CP.

But then you don't get to see what a fool someone has become.

 

[wayneL]

Share TRADING provides exactly zero capital for companies to use to employ people, conduct productive enterprise etc. Who exactly do you think you are trading shares with? Ask company CEO's what they think of traders who short their companies shares on market for example.....Active traders are really profiting by clipping/arbing the capital as it passes through the supposedly "efficient" market, and yet many here (not all) have the audacity to look down on property investors, bankers etc as sort of societal leeches!

True

But traders don't receive the benefit of electoral bribery and pork barrelling... and it is allowed to correct more naturally.

Australian property investors have their hand in the taxpayers pocket (sometimes directly, sometimes indirectly).

 

[MACCA350]

Share TRADING provides exactly zero capital for companies to use to employ people, conduct productive enterprise etc.

Ok before I read any more...........without the ability to TRADE shares, who would buy shares in the first place, who would put up their cash to allow companies to RAISE capital(which is used for all those things you and I mentioned) in the first place.

Put it another way, if you could not sell your properties, would you buy an investment property?

cheers

 

[MACCA350]

I'm just trying to point out the hypocritical stance of some when it comes to the property market in particular.

I believe the point of difference lies in the fact that housing is primarily and directly a means to house people(ie a fundamental and basic need for every human is a roof over their head)........the same cannot be said for shares.

At least that is what I see as the defining difference, many property bulls seem to forget that and see housing as a money making scheme instead of the basic need it was designed to fill...........seems to me like mistaking your veggie patch for the loo, just in this case it's not a mistake, it's being done on purpose

cheers

 

[robots]

You can do it through your User CP.

But then you don't get to see what a fool someone has become.

hello,

a fool I am then, i will gladly take being called a name and have the $ piling in my pocket

now what was it:

"st Kilda units to drop 50% 2009"

remember that one up there with the avatar, did that cause the walkabout, throwing in the towel?

thankyou
professor robots

 

[wayneL]

You can do it through your User CP.

But then you don't get to see what a fool someone has become.

,

a fool I am then, i will gladly take being called a name and have the $ piling in my pocket

now what was it:

"st Kilda units to drop 50% 2009"

remember that one up there with the avatar, did that cause the walkabout, throwing in the towel?

thankyou
professor robots

I didn't mention any names robots.

It is interesting that you assume that I am referring to you. Is this because you believe you are acting like a fool?

 

[satanoperca]

Anyway this thread has gone a bit off topic - the title is "house prices to rise for years" (?) - I think it is clear they will be rising in Australia for the next few years, and after a dip last year have certainly risen strongly across the board this year, as was in fact predicted by several posters going back to early last year on this and the "prices to fall" thread.

The reason that house prices have come back strong this year is :
1) Unemployment has not reached the predicted rates of 8% - a good thing
2) FHBG - massive stimulation using tax payers money which benefited sellers and the banks
3) Lowest interest rates in 50 years

As was seen in 2008 at the height of IR's, property prices started to retracted. What is stopping this happening in the future given pent up demand has been released with low interest rates and demand bought forward with the FHBG and unaffordability issues about to be put back on the table.

Also, taxes will need to go up to pay for the huge deficit the govnuts have given us.

Oh, crap forget that this dimwit government will do everything it can to artificially kept prices high at the expense of future taxpayers.

Good Morning

 

[Soft Dough]

Share TRADING provides exactly zero capital for companies to use to employ people, conduct productive enterprise etc. Who exactly do you think you are trading shares with? Ask company CEO's what they think of traders who short their companies shares on market for example.....Active traders are really profiting by clipping/arbing the capital as it passes through the supposedly "efficient" market, and yet many here (not all) have the audacity to look down on property investors, bankers etc as sort of societal leeches!

The share market can at times provide the ability for companies to raise needed capital, but it is long term investors/funds etc usually providing that rather than active short term traders.

EDIT: To be clear, I am not critising share trading, I use to day trade myself a few years ago for a while. I see nothing wrong with legally profiting from any opportunity that markets of any sort provide for those willing to have a go and take the risk, property included. I'm just trying to point out the hypocritical stance of some when it comes to the property market in particular.

PS: A bottle of red a day does keep the doctor away! Well certainly a glass or two does anyway (which is what I usually partake of most evenings!)

Cheers,

Beej

No the leeches are real-estate agents - never ever ever ever trust a real-estate agent, they are the dogs of the earth, with absolutely no moral values.

Actually share trading, and increasing share prices protects companies from predatory takeovers from foreign companies, and in the case of China a country.

We will look back and regret allowing foreign investment in our resources, as this will drive the income generating assets into foreign hands for very cheap prices.

Housing alsoshould have been left alone, but Krudd has sold us out there too.

PS Good choice of a drop, just make sure you keep going to the doctors for check ups and any elective surgeries, you need to keep some of us employed you know

 

[kincella]

Housing shortage may derail state's recovery
Amanda O'Brien | October 10, 2009
Article from: The Australian
A SENIOR West Australian banker has warned the Barnett government the state's rebounding economy will come unstuck if a deepening housing shortage is not urgently addressed.

"There's no question there is going to be a major housing crisis in Western Australia; the only question is when," NAB state business banking chief Andrew Whitechurch told The Weekend Australian. "It is a big issue and it's about to get bigger."

With a string of major resources projects promising thousands of new jobs from next year, Mr Whitechurch said the lack of land release and a "ridiculous" approvals process were creating roadblocks for developers.

He said Premier Colin Barnett had shown appropriate concern but it needed to translate into action.

NAB has been increasing its business presence in WA, adding an extra 37 business bankers last year, and planning up to 30 more this year. While part of the expansion was opportunistic, to try to gain market share from the fallout from last year's CBA-BankWest merger, Mr Whitechurch said the economy was the key factor.

"We've identified for the next 20 or 30 years there's going to be continued outperformance of the national economy," he said. "The net migration numbers alone are enough to give you a reasonable degree of confidence that this is going to be a great state."

But he said the projects underpinning growth would be stymied if there was nowhere to live.

Treasurer Troy Buswell revealed on Tuesday that fewer than 19,000 homes were built in WA in 2008-09, when 24,000 were needed just to cater for population growth of more than 67,000, without touching existing problems.

Mr Whitechurch said: "The number of people coming in is not stopping, so the problem gets worse every day, and even if you get through the approvals process you can't provide additional supply for 12 to 18 months."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26189736-25658,00.html

 

[Macquack]

move one suburb out 40k in pocket, two suburbs back 80k in pocket, 10 suburbs out 200k in pocket,

sell up and buy trailer for the pushie and a tent, all in pocket,

Robots, you dont need to have inflating house prices to do what you suggest.

the holders of true wealth, and its all TAX FREE

If you buy a house at a point in time and sell the same house at later point in time, it still is the same house. The house does not actually grow for the government to be able to ligitamently tax it. I think that is the philosophy behind no capital gains tax on PPOR.

 

[robots]

Robots, you dont need to have inflating house prices to do what you suggest.


If you buy a house at a point in time and sell the same house at later point in time, it still is the same house. The house does not actually grow for the government to be able to ligitamently tax it. I think that is the philosophy behind no capital gains tax on PPOR.

hello,

yeah?

if you thinking of throwing in the towel send us a pm i may be able to help, sometimes it doesnt always go your way, thats okay

probably the first thing is dont make embarrassing predictions

thankyou
professor robots

 

[MACCA350]

hello,
probably the first thing is dont make embarrassing predictions

Bit of an oxymoron there Robots:

A prediction cannot be known to be embarrassing at the time it is made, so by definition the phrase "don't make embarrassing predictions" is self-contradictory as anyone making a prediction has no conformation it is indeed embarrassing.

As such it is impossible for anyone to knowingly make an embarrassing prediction, and hence impossible to knowingly refrain from doing so.

cheers

 

[wayneL]

Bit of an oxymoron there Robots:

A prediction cannot be known to be embarrassing at the time it is made, so by definition the phrase "don't make embarrassing predictions" is self-contradictory as anyone making a prediction has no conformation it is indeed embarrassing.

As such it is impossible for anyone to knowingly make an embarrassing prediction, and hence impossible to knowingly refrain from doing so.

cheers

The gam eisn't over either