House prices to keep rising for years

[moXJO]

It is hard seeing interest rates going up with the current height of our dollar. I was very bearish on housing this time last year. But the rba has its hands tied at the moment concerning interest rates. There also seems to be another rush on property (offshore investment as well) and unemployment is still low when all things are considered. The fact that property only came down a little was also concerning. We may be paving the way for another boom before a bust?

 

[Taltan]

There could very well be a mini-boom especially with the govt/RBA pumping liquidity into our economy and many people scared off the stock market.

I say mimi-boom only because prices are high to begin so with net rental yields at 3-4% there is a limit to how low they can go. After the 1987 ASX crash property boomed for another 18 months before the bust. I believe we have the same sort of property optimism at the moment.

 

[cutz]

many people scared off the stock market.

I dunno about that, haven't you heard the latest.

The bull(s***) market is back, stronger than ever.

 

[MrBurns]

For those posters who like to follow Neil Jennmans advice.....
guess what, how does 10 million sound for making money out of a con...
extract...........
Desperate Property Spruiker Neil Jenman planning to "stitch up" more consumers in last ditch effort for a grab for cash and credibility.

Our investigations reveal that Property Spruiker Neil Jenman is close to releasing his latest book called "Stitched", which is apparently about 150 property spruikers that he thinks you should avoid.

As expected, Neil Jenman himself isn't featured in the book despite himself being renowned as one of the most unethical property spruikers in the industry for the last 15 years
http://www.consumer-warning.com/index2.htm

You risk your own credibility by quoting that dodgy web site, they don't identify themselves and the owner of the domain name is hidden, what a bunch of wankers.

Jenman has made a name for himself exposing agents rorts and there's plenty of them, he is hated by the industry but much of what he says is probably true and there's a lot worse he doesn't say.

If I told you what I know you'd be gobsmacked and it would be on the evening news ........no doubt.

That's not to say all agents are bad but there are some bad apples out there, where's there's money at stake you see people at their worst, and there's big money in real estate be it commissions or just turning a property over.

 

[Taltan]

I dunno about that, haven't you heard the latest.

The bull(s***) market is back, stronger than ever.

We're back to bullish compared to Feb/Mar but still 50% down on Nov 2007. Our big 4 banks are paying p/e (especially after imputation) much higher than rental yields and yet there are a lot of people right now who prefer property at the moment due to the perception of safety.

 

[kincella]

maybe some are a bit too gullible about Jenman.....Jenman calls other agents all sorts of names and accuses them of all sorts of things.....then yells at them, if you dont like it sue me....now to sue him will cost an agent up to 300k plus...
so rather than sue him, he encourages them to sign up as Jenman agent....which costs them on average 1500 a month...silence money, so he will not call them anything.....a lot of innocent agents went along with this idea.....too much potential damage to their business.....

apparently there are a load of cases waiting to take him to court....

so how about that ....easy money for a con man....so far he has made over 12 million dollars.....only a couple of people have actually been saved by him...its all about the publicity to believe he is looking after their interests,
when in fact he is just as big a con artist or bigger and jealous of said Henry Kaye
oh, and Jenmans agents have to learn his tricks of the trade.....which are at best are the worst tricks any RE agent will get up to.....
how to suck innocent people into paying the highest commissions etc...

apparently the ploy of naming another agent as a con man, knowing full well it will cost them too much money to fight him in court, is his greatest con....

maybe a little bit of research would not go astray....rather than be fooled by another con man

 

[MrBurns]

maybe some are a bit too gullible about Jenman.....Jenman calls other agents all sorts of names and accuses them of all sorts of things.....then yells at them, if you dont like it sue me....now to sue him will cost an agent up to 300k plus...
so rather than sue him, he encourages them to sign up as Jenman agent....which costs them on average 1500 a month...silence money, so he will not call them anything.....a lot of innocent agents went along with this idea.....too much potential damage to their business.....

apparently there are a load of cases waiting to take him to court....

so how about that ....easy money for a con man....so far he has made over 12 million dollars.....only a couple of people have actually been saved by him...its all about the publicity to believe he is looking after their interests,
when in fact he is just as big a con artist or bigger and jealous of said Henry Kaye
oh, and Jenmans agents have to learn his tricks of the trade.....which are at best are the worst tricks any RE agent will get up to.....
how to suck innocent people into paying the highest commissions etc...

apparently the ploy of naming another agent as a con man, knowing full well it will cost them too much money to fight him in court, is his greatest con....

maybe a little bit of research would not go astray....rather than be fooled by another con man

Jenman might be all you say but I dont see any research on this piece of rubbish you're quoting from -

http://www.consumer-warning.com/index2.htm

They dont even identify themselves

 

[nunthewiser]

LOL what a great thread :bonk:

 

[wayneL]

maybe some are a bit too gullible about Jenman.....Jenman calls other agents all sorts of names and accuses them of all sorts of things.....then yells at them, if you dont like it sue me....now to sue him will cost an agent up to 300k plus...
so rather than sue him, he encourages them to sign up as Jenman agent....which costs them on average 1500 a month...silence money, so he will not call them anything.....a lot of innocent agents went along with this idea.....too much potential damage to their business.....

apparently there are a load of cases waiting to take him to court....

so how about that ....easy money for a con man....so far he has made over 12 million dollars.....only a couple of people have actually been saved by him...its all about the publicity to believe he is looking after their interests,
when in fact he is just as big a con artist or bigger and jealous of said Henry Kaye
oh, and Jenmans agents have to learn his tricks of the trade.....which are at best are the worst tricks any RE agent will get up to.....
how to suck innocent people into paying the highest commissions etc...

apparently the ploy of naming another agent as a con man, knowing full well it will cost them too much money to fight him in court, is his greatest con....

maybe a little bit of research would not go astray....rather than be fooled by another con man

Total nonsense.

I have a family friend in Melbourne who is using the Jenman system. I happen to possess the entire Jenman literature for agents... as a matter of fact I'm putting it all in boxes right at this very moment (packing up to move house).

Not withstanding a minority of firms who may have some dispute with jenman, you are talking total bollocks.

 

[robots]

hello,

spot on Kincella, just another Keen wanting to get all over the tv

has saved people nothing and made nothing for anybody also, unlike us brother who have guided many through the money making process

and for us its only about upholding the community spirit, offering people a hand, helping out fellow man and woman achieve and have a most enjoyable life

the troll crew just dont understand, amazing

anyway, what happened to the huge reduction in Immigration? another false prophecy

thankyou
professor robots

 

[kincella]

Robots,...halleluja...
what a beautiful song that is..
oh, and for what its worth....................
halleluga...................

*** spot on from you about Keen............yes another con artist...ponzi scheme..............
and for the gullible....they just lap it up....its like a bible to them

follow a ponzi scheme...aka steve keen, neil jenman,, storm financial, lehmann brothers, you name it.......
there are a million poinzi schemes out there for the others to follow....

aka lambs to the slaughter......??? ever visited an abbatoirs ????
its not for the faint ahearted

 

[nunthewiser]

Did someone spike the water cooler again ?

 

[Mr J]

I'd be worried if house prices didn't keep rising for years, given that it is what most Australians rely on to battle inflation.

 

[wayneL]

I'd be worried if house prices didn't keep rising for years, given that it is what most Australians rely on to battle inflation.

I think we dealt with that about 10,000 pages back

 

[Mr J]

Fine, but I don't see how it hurts to bring it up again. Most aussies rely on property performance to keep their head above water, but even reasonable inflation, current interest rates and a modest mortgage may only be a breakeven proposition. It may be a significant loser to many, as many borrow to their limit. Many aussies look at property prices go up and think they're winning .

 

[Beej]

Did someone spike the water cooler again ?

I don't think I drank from *that* water cooler???

 

[nunthewiser]

I don't think I drank from *that* water cooler???

i dont thinkso either beej

i find the majoroity of your posts well researched , intelligent and well written , they may be slightly biased : because of those "rose coloured glasses" but well worth reading nonetheless

however

there are some posts here that make we wonder at times .

 

[wayneL]

i dont thinkso either beej

i find the majoroity of your posts well researched , intelligent and well written , they may be slightly biased : because of those "rose coloured glasses" but well worth reading nonetheless

however

there are some posts here that make we wonder at times .

Agreed

 

[Mofra]

I'd be worried if house prices didn't keep rising for years, given that it is what most Australians rely on to battle inflation.

*ducks in*

AWOTE tends to outpace inflation by a couple of % annually

*slinks away*

 

[wayneL]

Michael Shedlock's latest post on houses prices.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/mish-mailbag-how-does-one-tell-if.html

....Here is the video in question: Mish Videos - On the Edge with Max Keiser.

Dear CC

You do not need articles. You just need common sense.

Here are some things you should consider.

#1) How much are home price out of whack with rental prices? (i.e. What does it cost to own vs. rent a similar house? Keep in mind maintenance, property taxes, etc.)
#2) How much above the trendline growth in price appreciation are home prices selling? (Was there an unexpected or unwarranted acceleration in prices over a number of years?)
#3) How much have home prices appreciated vs. wages?

Any of those significantly above their trendline is a huge warning sign. When bubbles burst, prices will not only revert to the mean but overshoot as well.

Note that housing markets will vary based on availability of jobs, local wages, and amenities. Thus, cities like Vancouver and Toronto will carry premiums just as San Diego, Chicago, and New York do. However, premiums are not unlimited. The desirability of San Diego and Miami did not stop a crash in the US. It will not stop a crash in Vancouver either. Moreover, desirability can change at a moment's notice as happened in Florida and Las Vegas.

Your question is not really about Canada given the same metrics apply to London England, Sydney Australia, Shanghai China, or anywhere else. Simply put: The more out of line those factors are, the bigger the bubble. And the bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash.

There may be other considerations, but financially speaking, if home prices are out of line with rental prices, wages and wage growth, and jobs, you are better off renting. The more out of line they are, the better off renting you are, anywhere worldwide.

Regardless of rental prices, don't be a debt slave to your house and don't buy just because home prices are going up!

At times it may seem that greater fools are everywhere. However, that is the way things always look at market tops. Here's three things to always keep in mind:

1) The pool of greater fools is not endless.
2) Unlike stocks, houses are not liquid.
3) Sentiment can change on a dime, far faster than someone can sell a house. That applies double for condos.

Finally, if mortgages... are recourse loans (you cannot just walk away), you need to be all the more cautious.

Use common sense, not emotion. Don't get trapped.