House prices to keep rising for years

[kincella]

Beej, and Mofra....they are both excellent responses....and of a high standard...as expected....
waiting for the peak to come down, is probably not out of the question.....for some, since some of the excuses from the anti brigade were similar...out of this world scenarios.....armageddon type predictions....

anyway we have some good reporting coming out of the likes of RP data, the business spectator and morrell and koren sites now....

I also note the similar low % of positive people on other property sites....its like 10% are positive and 90% negative....
similar to the top wealthy % of the total populations

I do wonder if the rates will go up the .25% in October....since its usually a lousy month on the stock market...unless you are buying....they reminisce about that crash in 87...

 

[satanoperca]

While I am not a doomsayer, interesting how anyone who does not believe that the world is flat, no, thats RE will keep rising for years is a doomsayer, I would be willing to do some of the walk with anyone who has the intellect for free thought and is willing to go against popular belief such as Prof Keen with well research and thought out arguments.

His blog has contributed much to the discussion about debt and it burden on society and is an interesting read.

I love this country, anyone with a different opinion must be labeled so that the masses feel comfortable with their own belief.

Interest how, SK came out in the media that it would be disastrous if IR are increased, if he was so intent on RE dropping you would have thought he would encourage the RBA to lift rates.

Just to add to a previous comment on mine about increasing household income so property prices can continue increasing :

First there was a single income family, then came along was a dual income family, with no more adults to go to work along come the government with government grants to bolster the family income.

Ah but you say, it was only the FHBG. An additional 7K which lead to extra $35k to borrowings (80% LVR), which in turn pushed up the prices, the FHB then gives the Second HB an extra $35k which the SHB borrows an extra $175 and push up the prices of the next tier and so on and so.
I will give it to Government, a brilliant concept to get money flowing in the economy but unfortunately is was not savings but rather just more debt.

What goes one way can work in reverse when the FHBG is partially reduced.

But we must not discount the fact that the government could intervene again and again and again until they run out of money.

Cheers

 

[Early Bird]

can some of you guys go over to the property forum, take a look now and again....there are some new posters over there with questions...am sure some on here can provide the answers for them...I would if I could, but I dont have the answers for them
cheers

hi does anyone have a link to this property forum please? can't seem to find it on the forum list on the homepage... is it a seperate site?

Also, thanks for a highly educational thread... although i cant say i'm any closer to deciding whether the market is about to crash or keep steadily rising...

i've been in australia 2 years (from the uk) and in that time prices in my own area (queenscliff, sydney) certainly seem to have fallen, although i cant seem to see any official data to support this. i do get the impression though that house price data comes mainly from those with vested interests?? i dont know whether anyone could point me towards an independent source of information?

i am also struggling to understand why the common opinion seems to be that interest rates are due to rise in the near future. to my mind, ocne the stimulus has washed through the system, if the economy stutters lowering IRs will be the main tool left to stimulate the economy?? and how lucky australia is that it has still got some lowering left to be done, not like the UK on 0.5%!

 

[Beej]

While I am not a doomsayer, interesting how anyone who does not believe that the world is flat, no, thats RE will keep rising for years is a doomsayer, I would be willing to do some of the walk with anyone who has the intellect for free thought and is willing to go against popular belief such as Prof Keen with well research and thought out arguments.

His blog has contributed much to the discussion about debt and it burden on society and is an interesting read.

........

S-opera - I don't rate you as a doomsayer either, and of course it's healthy to have a range of views and arguments on any topic of interest presented! You don't have to be a big time bull to be rated a non-doomsayer! One of the problems with this whole argument is how polarised it has become - "house prices must either boom or crash - there can be no in between" etc. Of course there are actually a range of views out there; my primary goal here has always been to explain why I think the AU market was never headed for a Prof Keen style crash as so many seem to have pinned their hopes on. But that's not to say that I believe prices "must double every 7 years" or whatever other tripe I am supposed to believe because I've been labeled a "property bull".

As for Prof Keen - I think if he had not been such a media-tramp and gone all over the mainstream media (60 minutes, 7:30 report, ACA etc etc) frightening people with his 40% fall prediction, then he would not be getting so much blow-back now. What he did was just plain irresponsible and was really acting against the financial interests of the majority of people in the country - undermining confidence at the worse possible time etc.

Housing affordability is an issue yes - a serious one. We all want housing to be affordable for all (well at least most) and our kids etc, but the answer is not to wish for a cataclysm that would financially ruin a large proportion of the population who have worked/saved/paid off mortgages etc over many many years. Affordability can only be addressed through increased building and de-centralising industry and population. Ie the development of more economically viable and vibrant centres away from the current major cities.

The US has done this, that's why they have cheaper houses (in many area's anyway) than us. I note though that in the big US cities like NYC, Chicago, good area' of LA, San Francisco etc, that houses are NOT cheaper than here - even now after their big GFC/subprime housing market collapse. Funny that isn't it?

I also note the similar low % of positive people on other property sites....its like 10% are positive and 90% negative....
similar to the top wealthy % of the total populations

I think this is because the age groups that frequent internet forums tend to be biased towards the younger/GenY sort of ages, which a smattering of "older" folks. Young people are less likely to already own property, and therefore think it is very expensive/over-priced, vs older people who are more likely to own property and have figured out what you need to do to get ahead financially in this world etc!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[nomore4s]

hi does anyone have a link to this property forum please? can't seem to find it on the forum list on the homepage... is it a seperate site?

Here you go.
Aussie Property Forums

 

[satanoperca]

Beej,

As for Prof Keen - I think if he had not been such a media-tramp and gone all over the mainstream media (60 minutes, 7:30 report, ACA etc etc) frightening people with his 40% fall prediction, then he would not be getting so much blow-back now. What he did was just plain irresponsible and was really acting against the financial interests of the majority of people in the country - undermining confidence at the worse possible time etc.

Couldn't agree more, it was irresponsible, one bite of the apple at a time might have been more appropriate but that may not have given him air time.

However, I do feel it was against the best interest of the national to increase the FHBG, only time will tell if this increase is going to have any negative effects in the next 5 years.

It is hard to see the bottom end of the market growing much more after the FHBG is reduced, but we should starting seeing growth in the middle of the market as an effect of the FHBG.

Cheers

 

[samt75]

Hi

We're in WA and as much as they think house prices have come down it's not really as much as analysts have been predicting and with this Gorgon Project going ahead soon it's only going to drive prices up more because the people working on these projects like the previous mining boom have got the buying power because they are on the higher incomes unlike the people that work in the metropolitan and surrounding areas.
I may be wrong but i think house prices will continue to keep rising maybe not as sharp as the 2005 -2007 years but they will climb slowly.

 

[moXJO]

As for Prof Keen - I think if he had not been such a media-tramp and gone all over the mainstream media (60 minutes, 7:30 report, ACA etc etc) frightening people with his 40% fall prediction, then he would not be getting so much blow-back now. What he did was just plain irresponsible and was really acting against the financial interests of the majority of people in the country - undermining confidence at the worse possible time etc.


Beej

He is actually pretty well versed on how credit bubbles build and deflate. I think he shot the gun a bit early though. And will now be famously be remembered for being a media ho, and being hated by property forum users. I think stimulus package, second wind in both commods, and spending might have delayed the inevitable. I suppose the next few months will sort out if that is true or not.

Some houses in my area have come off 40% since the boom. Considering how overpriced they were its no surprise. Good houses are still hard to come by though (I'm still looking).

Interesting to see they didn't raise interest rates again.

 

[Mofra]

While I am not a doomsayer, interesting how anyone who does not believe that the world is flat, no, thats RE will keep rising for years is a doomsayer, I would be willing to do some of the walk with anyone who has the intellect for free thought and is willing to go against popular belief such as Prof Keen with well research and thought out arguments.

saatnoperca, stating that RE will fall/trend sideways etc. and adding reasons why you believe it to be so doesn't put someone in the category of doomsayer.
Reading some of the comments in the other thread about 40%+ falls, stockpiling food, is gold a defensive enough asset and so on, there are definately some here who made cataclismic predictions that seemed perfectly apt to attact the title of doomsayer.
Even predicting rises to match inflation as the fallout of the GFC continues I wouldn't be buying in "leg up" areas because I don't now (and never have) believed that all areas recover at the same time or same rate.

 

[Beej]

Beej, what would be the point? They'd just stand at the foot of the mountain waiting for the peak to come down

BTW: Love your work

Beej

 

[gfresh]

FHOG should have never been introduced on older properties.. New home starts are still faltering, which is just stupid, when the effect of the stimulus on older properties could have been re-directed towards construction to create new homes and ease any shortages.

Unfortunately, with current government policy (doesn't matter which party), not owning any property is disadvantageous as well. So in some ways, the reason why I bought a house recently is to hedge the idiocracy of government. This I don't expect to change anytime soon.

 

[satanoperca]

FHOG should have never been introduced on older properties.. New home starts are still faltering, which is just stupid, when the effect of the stimulus on older properties could have been re-directed towards construction to create new homes and ease any shortages.

It was as simple as that and why not go one step further and offer better tax rebates for investors of new homes and reduce tax incentives for older homes.

Ease shortages while increasing workforce. I must be missing something, it cannot be that simple, I will ask the genius of the family my 3 year old son.

Cheers

 

[Early Bird]

thanks for the link no more 4s.

 

[robots]

hello,

good evening everybody, another great spring day, Sun Shining bright for us in Melbourne, this is fanatastic, cant believe it

gee how's the economy going brothers? nothing new in today's figures

we Australia, we on the ride

another month of rises for property, this is great

thankyou
professor robots

 

[bowseruni]

Just got back from the auction i was looking at bidding at, the house is 1940's vintage, untouched from then so needing a heap of work on a flat 600sqm block.
Comm bank valued it at 420k, i was prepared to go to 400k.......bidding started at 400k and ended at 515k...what a joke. House is either knock down or spend 150k plus to get any good.

the bubble keeps inflating........still saving for the time being

on a good note, the local bottle shop had Corona slabs on special, not all that bad of a night

 

[robots]

hello,

yes, and people like Schiller spout out houses return 0.1% p/a, just amazing

the media outlets want to get a mic down to Robots joint, Kincella's, Beej's or Shadow's for an expert account

thankyou
professor robots

 

[kincella]

Robots,
or the media could talk to all those people sitting pretty in their own homes, or the people upgrading to bigger better homes....no good talking to the banks...they would play down the numbers, in order to fattern their pockets and profits...

oh, when I heard those numbers yesterday I smelt a rat....and there was Swany preening his feathers saying look how good am I....and the other Rudd, playing it down....
I reckon all those public servants have been doing too much overtime and stuffed up the numbers...to make the govt look good....and play up to the banks to raise interest rates....

here is a snippet from the article................

The GDP numbers don't add up
TIM COLEBATCH
September 3, 2009
YESTERDAY'S GDP figures are certainly wrong. But for now, we don't know which of its figures are wrong - and so we don't know Australia's real rate of economic growth.

Sorry, but that's the truth.

The figures released yesterday do not add up. They will be heavily revised. Their bottom line could be flipped upside down, turning growth negative.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/the-gdp-numbers-dont-add-up-20090902-f8fc.html

 

[Mr J]

Would be of interest to know what their average wealth is and what part of the world is the average immigrant from. I know a number of South Africans are now coming to Australia & many of them are quite wealthy who can afford to buy medium priced houses.

South Africans have been coming to Australia in large numbers for a couple of decades (at least) now.

It's silly for anyone to suggest that property doesn't increase in value over time. If the population of a city grows, land value will increase. Is it as much as most think? Probably not, but that's no different to any other asset.

I reckon all those public servants have been doing too much overtime and stuffed up the numbers

They've been working 4 days a week?

 

[finnsk]

I dont know if it has been covered in this thread, but if interest is on the rise what % will the banks give you, if you lock it in for the next say 5 years 7-8-9-10% or more?
What will happen to house prices if interest goes to 10%?

 

[robots]

hello,

yes long term fixed rates are around 8%,

interest rates went to 9-10% just last year and the prop market was knocked up about 5-10%

some segments went a lot more, but good ole run of the mill well located RE hanged in well just like the previous time around 1990

thankyou and have a great evening

professor robots