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House prices to keep rising for years

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just some notes for the sceptics...foreign ownership has been eased...so you have a bit more competition than you realised, and cashed up buyers paying multi millions for the houses...they are not on a low wage, but may give the fhb some competition as well.....
couple of points to note those auctions at the w/e at 80% clearance...you will find they are selling a higher number by private treaty rather than auctions..
and its now easier for foreigners to buy,and thats what they are doing....if you want to know whats really going on check out this site...loads more million dollar homes changing hands...these are buyers advocates...looking for the best lowest prices for the dream home buyers

http://www.morrellandkoren.com.au/topend/

Bayside: Invasion of the property snatchers.
Last December, while the rest of us were breaking up for Christmas, our Assistant Treasurer quietly announced proposed changes to the Foreign Investment Review Board regulations governing the purchase of residential property by foreign nationals. The changes were implemented in March and have greatly relaxed the restrictions and reporting requirements on non-Australian citizens buying a home or land.

For the observant, evidence of these changes has become apparent over the past three months; with a marked increase in the numbers of overseas buyers attending open houses and auctions.

Agents seem to have been caught flat-footed and are largely unaware of the amendments - but are obviously grateful for the increased traffic. No doubt some are even taking credit for attracting this new class of buyers claiming it is the result of their fabulous marketing or incredible web presence. Or charisma.

Whatever.

In reality, it’s the buyers who are a step ahead and are taking advantage of the changes to buy into the weakened top end of the Bayside market; Brighton in particular.

Last week we reported the sale of 49 South Road, Brighton for $4.25 million to a Chinese buyer. It seems this is only the beginning.

This week 15 Kent Avenue, Brighton has finally been sold after languishing on the market for almost 12 months. Originally being touted at over $5.25 million, agent number three has found a buyer at last. It sold before last Saturday’s scheduled auction for the sobering price of $4.225 million to another overseas buyer.

The same vendor has also offloaded a vacant allotment at 4 Miller Street, Brighton for $3.85 million. Originally marketed as the site of two luxury new homes with sweeping bay views, development plans were shelved recently due to lack of interest. This buyer is a local, having just sold a landmark residence at 32 Middle Crescent (see our report of the 30th March), for a price now believed to be much closer to $10 million, and intends to build a new family residence on the site.

Over in East Brighton, the agent has done the almost impossible by finally selling 13 Lysander Street. The newish house was not blessed with universally appealing looks, but was spotted on the internet by another overseas buyer and it was love at first sight. The keys changed hands for $1.85 million.

Last week we reported a passed-in result at 328 St Kilda Street, Brighton with a post auction price of $2 million+. The property has now been sold to another overseas buyer for $2.3 million. It’s 1500sq m and a potential development site, we will keep a keen eye out for a planning application sign to appear on the front fence.

Over the road in The Golden Mile, 4 St Ninians Court has been sold for $3.025 million. It’s 690 sq m (7425 sq ft), a level and vacant site carved from a neighbouring property.

The standout sale for the week is the relatively efficient sale of 19 North Road, Brighton. Designed by Charles Webb, the 1886 property sits on 2440 sq m (26,300 sq ft) and has not been touched in many many years. A local admirer has paid a price believed to be in the vicinity of $6.75 million against a private sale offering price of $7.3 million.

Bayside auctions (with the exception of Bentleigh) took a back seat to the number and scope of private sales negotiated throughout the week.

Following the disgraceful performance at 3 Butler Street, Brighton last Sunday, auctioneers and agents were largely on their best behaviour with most properties selling within an acceptable margin of the quote.
 
Kincella,

I think you should have posted that article in the other property thread. Brighton property - blue chip, got smashed last year. I have been informed by friends in the banking industry that there is a glut of high end properties available in Brighton for sales due to foreclosures but the banks are releasing them slowly as not to flood the market. Most of the foreclosures we due to margin loans going into default. I know of two people who got caught out last year who owned in Brighton and had to sell.

I was down in Brighton on the weekend, yes people in all the cafés, real estate office full of expensive properties for rent, no to many sold stickers on property for sale.

Overseas people have been buying property is Australia for a long time, it is not something new. Two Chinese business partners have asked me a look for properties in Melbourne, their children have relocated here. Both have several million in cash to spend.

My Malaysian business partner has a portfolio of commercial and residential real estate here and will continue to grow it but only ever pays cash.

If you investigate who has been buying all the apartments in South Melbourne on City Rd you will find the majority are from East Asia - I believe the developers have been granted special permission to sell to overseas people but when they sale they must sell back to Australians.
 
I know foreigners have been here a long time...but they were restricted on what they could buy..restrictions have been eased since Feb 09...dont have time to check now...out for meeting...
the article mentioned the increased buying from overseas...
are you looking or kicking tyres ?
 
are you looking or kicking tyres ?

A bit of both. Brighton was one of the areas I was concentrating on for them as prices had already been knocked about and there is some good buys in the 750K-1.1 range. We be far more active in the later part of this year, early next year.

This cycle still has a long way to go.

I see that the NSW Gov has published some stats for RE.

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/About+Us/Reports+Plans+and+Papers/Rent+and+Sales+Reports/Latest+Issue/

No lolipops up there, could it be Melbournes turn next with the vast majority of suburbs in Sydney showing negative growth for YoY, what did you say, negative growth cannot be we are different here.

Just proves that assets all have a maximum inflation rate, before a leak occurs and they slow deflate until reaching equilibrium again.
 
entry level public service jobs pay from 38,000 for those under 21 to 49500 for over 21's...then level 3 go to starting at 59500....
believe the private sector pays more....the above are just basic admin jobs
lady I know is an office manager, small office mainly admin...earns 75000
labourers earn 45-50k min...and spouse working low paid jobs about 40k....
surely

Go nuke...you obviously did not check the link I gave yesterday...
full time adult earnings in 2006 were 56700 per person...and disposable income per household was 73200.....
dont know where you get your figures from...but these are the govt numbers...dont you believe them ????

Thank you for your reply kincella.

entry level public service jobs pay from 38,000 for those under 21 to 49500 for over 21's...then level 3 go to starting at 59500....
believe the private sector pays more....the above are just basic admin jobs
Basic admin paying up to 59500?
I don't believe that would be the norm. My partner working in the private industry as a senior admin person and doesn't crack the 50K barrier.Nor any of the other admin people except one.

labourers earn 45-50k min
Im sorry but where did you come up with that crap?
As a boilermaker my wage is approx $54K and thats for being a qualified tradesperson.
Now when I recieved my super generous pay increase of -1% this year I was told that Im earning more than my supervisor AND that I'm lucky I'm not paying my company money back! lol...a slap in the face I know, but what do you do when there are few other jobs available.

Therefore I know alot of other tradies and those working in the manufacturing industry who Im sure would also love to dispute the figures you have put forth.

dont know where you get your figures from...but these are the govt numbers...dont you believe them ??
Quiet simply no I don't believe them. Thats why I said that I prefer the MEDIUM income gives a more accurate picture of the the general population is earning.

I get my figures from every person I know...friends, family etc and I have to say, not that many of them earn over the 56700K you have mentioned.

Now in all fairness though, someone once told me that everyone they know earns more than that.
There are two sides to every story.
I just get fustrated and upset when people don't realise how many people out there dont earn the so called average income.

This is in no way a personal attack on you Kincella, just an attempt to broaden your mind ;)
 
Kincella,

I think you should have posted that article in the other property thread. Brighton property - blue chip, got smashed last year. I have been informed by friends in the banking industry that there is a glut of high end properties available in Brighton for sales due to foreclosures but the banks are releasing them slowly as not to flood the market. Most of the foreclosures we due to margin loans going into default. I know of two people who got caught out last year who owned in Brighton and had to sell.

I was down in Brighton on the weekend, yes people in all the cafés, real estate office full of expensive properties for rent, no to many sold stickers on property for sale.

Overseas people have been buying property is Australia for a long time, it is not something new. Two Chinese business partners have asked me a look for properties in Melbourne, their children have relocated here. Both have several million in cash to spend.

My Malaysian business partner has a portfolio of commercial and residential real estate here and will continue to grow it but only ever pays cash.

If you investigate who has been buying all the apartments in South Melbourne on City Rd you will find the majority are from East Asia - I believe the developers have been granted special permission to sell to overseas people but when they sale they must sell back to Australians.

HAHA how funny does that sound....
I believe the developers have been granted special permission to sell to overseas people but when they sale they must sell back to Australians

No wonder everyone is moving to QLD, they want to live in Australia...not another Asia.
Typical of the government...Housing affordablity is out of reach for some Australians...lets sell it off to foreigners who have loads of cash.
 
Typical of the government...Housing affordablility is out of reach for some Australians...lets sell it off to foreigners who have loads of cash.

Just keeping the bubble growing, that all that matters, how are we to reach 4.5% growth without a housing lead recover?

Affordability - whats that? Something to do with a hippy commune?

Welfare for the developers maybe.
 
hello,

keep the posts coming Kincella, you legend man

great informative reading each day

Go Nuke has OFFICiALLY wiped the credibility of the ABS(Government) so any data from this department cannot be used now, oh well

any other sites we can get housing data from?

thankyou
associate professor robots
 
I have access to some actual wages information... my clients...maybe they are in a higher income bracket than most.... although the majority are business people....and I see the wages they pay their employees.....

if you really want to test whats available just go to some of the job placement sites to see whats on offer regarding the wages....
yes they show what the wages on offer are....

have no idea about you...but maybe you and friends are under 21, or all working in similar industries that do pay a low wage....

there are some mongrel employers out there....

think the worst class are the women who do all the sewing at home...they are the lowest paid...
I have family that on average earn $20 ph or thereabouts,,,800 pw or 50,000pa...they think its an OK wage ...and with both working its 100k pa
 
hello,

good evening and hope everyone having a fine day

please just relax, its only debate and discussion with the money box crew getting all excited yesterday

having been away from the computer and when i logged on just now i have 378 pm's requesting those sites again, so here they are:

rpdata.com.au

apmpropertydata.com.au


thankyou
robots

hello,

i knew some guy had posted a couple of housing data sites a couple of weeks ago, i have found them for everybody

good informative sites with lots of data by the looks of them

will now have second thoughts about data the government presents

thankyou
associate professor robots
 
As a boilermaker my wage is approx $54K and thats for being a qualified tradesperson.
Now when I recieved my super generous pay increase of -1% this year I was told that Im earning more than my supervisor AND that I'm lucky I'm not paying my company money back! lol...a slap in the face I know, but what do you do when there are few other jobs available.

You could crack the tonne easy if you worked the heavy industry/mining/shutdown/construction jobs. 10 to 12 hour days and 6 or 7 days per week. It aint in Brizzy though.
 
We don't hear much of the news out of the UK here anymore - so for what it's worth, here's a snippet from an article on business spectator today: (http://www.businessspectator.com.au...surge-pd20090519-S6TTJ?OpenDocument&src=sph):

Finally, in the UK, house prices rose by 2.4 per cent in May, following a 1.7 per cent increase in April to show the biggest monthly increase since 2003. It’s no wonder that a Reuters poll has found that more than half of euro zone money market dealers think that the worst of the liquidity crisis is past.

Surprise surprise! House prices actually rising in the UK now? In the middle of a deep recession? After the worse credit crunch/liquidity/banking crisis seen in the UK since the 30s?

What does this tell us? As stated before I don't think the AU and UK/US housing markets are really directly linked in any significant way. However I think the emerging recovery trend in the UK does tell us that even in such a bad situation as they had over there, which was much worse than here in terms of the banks situation and their freeze on new lending and inability to pass on interest rate cuts etc to consumers, the housing market will only fall so far before picking up again.

According to RP-data, APM, auction clearance rates and anecdotal evidence, (almost all sources except for ABS) prices in AU (led by Sydney/Melbourne and lagged by Brisbane/Perth) have started recovering after mild falls last year. I really find it hard to see what will trigger any further significant falls in AU (Sydney and Melbourne in particular). Remember unemployment etc is rising in the UK faster than here and is higher than here! Real lending rates are still higher there as well, and they had a systemic banking crisis, and yet prices there are now rising again? That picture doesn't really fit well at all with most of the bearish arguments made here and elsewhere re the likely direction of the market here in AU over the next 12 months.


Cheers,

Beej
 
Beej, and this from the US....and nuke take note of the average pay over there...
US builders are growing increasingly confident about the new-home market, a sentiment index showed.

The National Association of Home Builders' latest Housing Market Index rose to 16 in May, from 14 in April and nine in March.

With the second straight increase in the index and other positive indicators issued recently, builders hold hope the worst might be near in the crisis.

"There are a number of signs that indicate we could be turning a corner," said Jerry Howard, president of the builders' group.

But builders and analysts agreed pitfalls litter the road to recovery.

"Lower home prices, lower interest rates, and tax incentives have helped move some buyers off the sidelines to the closing tables," said Mike Larson, an analyst at Weiss Research.

"But the recovery process will likely take some time, given the still-large inventory overhang, mostly in the 'used' home business."

A separate, quarterly NAHB report -- the Housing Opportunity Index, or HOI -- showed nationwide housing affordability jumped January-March to its highest on record.

The HOI showed 72.5 per cent of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $US64,000 ($83,510), up from 62.4 per cent during the previous quarter. The 72.5 per cent marked the highest level since records began 18 years ago, the NAHB said. :D
and further rate cuts likely
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens also left the door open for further cuts in interest rates, saying changes in monetary policy still played a role in confidence. :D

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25505483-5018001,00.html

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25505000-25658,00.html
 
ok...about wages, plumber here now, urgent job, waited 8 days...3.5 years of apprentice completed...earns 45 k....will go out on his own when 4 years up...about 6 months...will earn about 80k

hes not 21, said the supervisor earns about 80k
 
Surprise surprise! House prices actually rising in the UK now? In the middle of a deep recession? After the worse credit crunch/liquidity/banking crisis seen in the UK since the 30s?

Hi Beej, do you know the reference to these figures purported by the Business Spec and it is interesting that they say May prices have increased when the month has not even finished.

Quick bit of research and I find this, April UK house prices down -0.4% but they did show a rise in March, but given the current economic environment it was a short lived rally of one month. YoY -15%. They thought they were different as well.

Ever seen a dead cat bounce?

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2009.pdf

Cheers
 
ok...about wages, plumber here now, urgent job, waited 8 days...3.5 years of apprentice completed...earns 45 k....will go out on his own when 4 years up...about 6 months...will earn about 80k

hes not 21, said the supervisor earns about 80k

Not very bright then is he.

Why own a business with risk, when you can be a supervisor and earn the same money.

I think you have been given a bogus amount what he can earn, I have a suspicion that a subcontractor would earn well in excess of $80k per year thanks to Kevin Rudd.
 
Hi all.

Thank you Kincella for doing all that research and posting some useful information.

I was honestly amazed at this bit
The HOI showed 72.5 per cent of all new and existing homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $US64,000 ($83,510), up from 62.4 per cent during the previous quarter
Though I'm assuming that the combined income as it says "families".

Wysiwyg....
You could crack the tonne easy if you worked the heavy industry/mining/shutdown/construction jobs. 10 to 12 hour days and 6 or 7 days per week. It aint in Brizzy though.
Correct!

Kincella....
have no idea about you...but maybe you and friends are under 21, or all working in similar industries that do pay a low wage....
Actually Im 31 this year as are my friends and my partner is 35 this yr. Their occupations range from trades,admin,government jobs etc. I guess I have 1 or 2 mates are are in the IT industry and are on good money 70K+ I think.

As I say, there are also alot of people out there that don't earn the "average" wage.

Robots...
credibility of the ABS(Government)
lmao.
Thats a joke in itself:bananasmi
 
attitude says it all...why be supervisor at 80k when you can be your own boss for the same amount....well I choose being my own boss, and a bit smarter than the supervisor, and the opportunity to earn a whole lot more than 80k...easy
this kid is only 19....to him 80k sounds like heaps of money...and like he said you get to pick and choose the good jobs...lots of benefits of being self employed....and thats the way he intends to go....
a good worker,,, and the magic...he cleaned up after himself....
he wants to buy a house once he is out there for a couple of years on his own...
I bet he goes places in a big way:D
 
I have family that on average earn $20 ph or thereabouts,,,800 pw or 50,000pa...they think its an OK wage ...and with both working its 100k pa

Your maths is a little out Im sorry to say.

$20 x 40hrs/week x 52 weeks a year is only $41.6K.
Thats a big difference to $50K/yr.

That example in itself highlights that not everyone earns the "average" income.

Anyway..back to housing, we'll just keep saving:)
Hard work will get us there:)
 
I agree soft dough I'm a sparky and would rather supervise than run my own business for 80k. For it to be worth considering you would have to earn at least 150k and would need regular contracts to keep you going in slow periods.
 
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