House prices to keep rising for years

[robots]

hello,

will go past in the morning

thankyou
robots

 

[Largesse]

hello,

will go past in the morning

thankyou
robots

Robots,

You are a true gentleman.

 

[robandcoll]

I have been following this thread now for a couple of months. My only advice is caution.

Rudd has guarenteed the big 4 and now extended a 1 year extension for repayments. Why?

Check your credit account and mortage, then check the real sellable price of your asset. Alot of people would be in the red. The area I live in has gone down $200,000 plus. Seaside resort south of Perth. House 3 doors up would have got $750,000 2-3 years ago. Sold for 460,000 and took along time to sell.

How many people have reinvested into propery or the boat and caravan on equity. Second mortages for the boats and caravans and the holiday homes.

Wait for the bottom of the market - July onwards looks real good as the first home buyer bonus will cease, but even I wouldnt dable. Long way to go yet and thats when you make your move. Remember what comes down must go up and that includes overvalued property prices which we still have and interest rates.

 

[Trevor_S]

I guess this guy will hope prices/rents keep going up, otherwise he will look be doing much soul searching in the years to come

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51677

I must admit I don't "get" a business strategy that celebrates a $1900 loss per month that has to be topped up from the ATO and out of ones pocket, with all the self management and reno work he does, surely buying a business that makes actual money each month would be a better proposition ?... Resi. Prop Investors claim it is a "business". Would ANYONE buy a share in a business listed on the ASX that guaranteed to lose money every month ? surely it's gambling i.e you KNOW you are going to loose, unless you get a payout (CG)

I am aghast at the slaps on the back and the good on ya's I guess real estate agents love this sort of person.

 

[nunthewiser]

My old man when I showed him had the same reaction as Nun.




His only comment was
"If only I knew then what I know now!!

The irony for all those who are in the Nun Tribe is

YOU DO KNOW NOW.
Its only fear which holds you back and always will.

I really hope one day that Nun's handle changes to
MUCHWISER.

Somehow I doubt that.

LOL unreal . um dear tech i suggest you scroll through my posts here darl ..... i hold property, family home , rental, and land .... geez your a funny one and as usual taken ppls posts out of context YET again

LOL unreal m8 , perhaps i should return the personal and toxic attacks you like to dish out so freely but then that would make both of us as pathetic as each other hey?

love ya work darl

 

[nunthewiser]

By the way tech/a .. ( apologys for my off topic post)

i have noticed lately a fair bit of angst and toxicity in a lot of your replies to various posters of late... everything ok ? contracts still ticking along? trading going ok ? machinery sitting there idle?


sincerely tho , do hope that the reasons for your latest toxic behaviour and obvious misreading of posts , is not too serious and we can have you back to your normal pigheaded self without the attacks as soon as you get whatever that ails you sorted

yours sincerely

a concerned much wiser nun

 

[singlefished]

we prop bulls are much smarter than the average bear.....we are not easily fooled.....

the difference between chiefs and the indians....or the queen ant and the worker ants

Its only fear which holds you back and always will.

The condescension on this thread lately drips like honey from those with obvious vested interest ehh? Is it too complicated for you to come up with a compelling argument given the current state of the economy?

Statements like these really sound about as mature as "I dare you..."

Please, enlighten me! I'm obviously missing the apparently obvious signs that tell me the market is about to BOOM and potential buyers are on the cusp of missing the boat forever!!!

What do I have to fear if I intend to enter the market when I see the economy starting to recover and the property market starts to move in the right direction. Why should I be buying in now?

Do you really believe that prices are going to BOOM within the next 6~12 months with rapidly rising unemployment, tightening of lending criteria by the banks, etc? Are houses about to suddenly disappear into thin air and will become an even more "valuable" commodity???

At the moment I'm sitting pretty watching prices dropping in my target market by between 10 and 20 percent over the last 6 to 12 months. I've got nothing to lose and nothing to fear, I'm laughing actually since the timing is perfect!!!

The only real fear I can see is coming from those with a current vested interest, the people and sectors with the most to lose...

 

[nunthewiser]

yeah i dont think this sort of stuff matters these days hey?

Bankruptcy up as job losses take their toll

19th April 2009, 10:00 WST


Amid rising debt and unemployment, the number of filings for personal bankruptcy is just shy of a record, a government agency says.

Personal bankruptcies have risen to 7164 for the March quarter, a report from the Insolvency and Trustee Service of Australia shows.

The number is just five fewer than the record number of personal bankruptcies of 7169, in June 2001.

The March quarter 2009 figure represents a 7.75 per cent rise from the 6649 bankruptcies lodged in the December quarter and is up 13.66 per cent from the March quarter last year.

ITSA executive director Peter Lowe said 85 per cent of bankruptcies were from consumers who had lost employment or could not manage credit debt levels.

“The causes that people give on the consumer side of our ledger are loss of income or employment, people moving between jobs and all those factors, or inability to manage their credit levels," Mr Lowe said.

“They’re the two biggies.”

“Consumer bankruptcies are well over 85 per cent of all bankruptcies."

Total personal insolvency activity including debt agreements and bankruptcy rose to 9300, an increase of 18.25 per cent, compared with 7865 for the same period in 2007-08.

Mr Lowe said a growing proportion of people were entering into voluntary debt agreements, rather than being declared bankrupt.

The ITSA report showed that in 2008, 2055 people entered debt agreements, an increase of 36 per cent from 2007-08.

“The bulk of individuals in financial difficulty voluntarily go bankrupt,” Mr Lowe said.

“One way of capturing a picture of this is to look at the activity happening under the Bankruptcy Act.

“A growing proportion of people are taking the initiative and repaying a substantial proportion of their debt.”

Hall Chadwick Accountants and Business Advisers partner Paul Leroy said the increase in the number of debt agreements demonstrated the serious nature of personal insolvency.

“This situation is very serious and it is clear that despite the latest interest rate cut and government attempts to kick-start the economy, personal debt and insolvency are still running high,” he said.

“Consumers who are in difficulty are relying more and more on credit to cover day-to-day costs. Something has to happen; consumers can’t continue to sustain these current debt levels without long-term consequences.”

A survey by St George Bank this week found that 35 per cent of respondents planned to use the one-off Federal Government bonus of as much as $900 to pay down their credit cards and personal debt.

SYDNEY
AAP

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=159&ContentID=136805

 

[kincella]

singlefished...
I have never suggested anyone buy now....never ever...suggested to get it now.....so you must be taking the words out of context...because I have not seen anyone else suggest that either....for the past 4 months....
we prop bulls only say we believe it is a good investment......
we like it...it works for us....
and there have been enough compelling arguments about property, from both sides, on this thread for about 4 years....

 

[Beej]

Do you really believe that prices are going to BOOM within the next 6~12 months with rapidly rising unemployment, tightening of lending criteria by the banks, etc? Are houses about to suddenly disappear into thin air and will become an even more "valuable" commodity???

I don't argue the above - all I argue is that is no widespread massive crash brewing either. And I now point out that in fact in some areas and price ranges prices have been rising for the past few months. Will they keep rising given the economic environment in the short term (6-12 months)? Probably not - but they might. They might fall a little to. Doesn't look they will crash though......

There is nothing wrong with your strategy at all Singlefeshed, as long as you have a plan, actually observe the market first hand in your target area, and move when it works for you and you think the outlook/trend is right.

It's the forever negative property bears that will ultimately miss out on any up turn in the property market as they will never buy unless they see prices fall 40%+ - which will never happen.

PS: In the meantime, even I now think this FHB mini-boom may be getting out of hand as buyers rush to beat the June 30 deadline: http://www.smh.com.au/national/firsthome-buyers-swamping-banks-20090419-abgp.html

First-home buyers swamping banks

LENDERS are struggling to keep pace with an unexpected increase in applications from first-home buyers, taking as long as a month to approve loans, which has led to some buyers missing settlement dates.

And then there is this little gem:

A spokesman for the Commonwealth Bank, Steve Batten, said the bank had also taken on extra staff in its mortgage processing division. .

He said about half of all applications received by the bank for the first-home buyers grant in NSW required "a rework" because of insufficient or incorrect information provided on the forms, adding to delays. The figure was 90 per cent in Queensland.

So does that mean that QLDs are generally less literate than NSWers?

Cheers,

Beej

 

[darnsmall]

It's the forever negative property bears that will ultimately miss out on any up turn in the property market as they will never buy unless they see prices fall 40%+ - which will never happen.


Cheers,

Beej

why not? Shares crashed by more than 50% in some cases why not housing? If the US recovery effort fails and investors don't buy into a sick/plagued economy...If consumer and business confidence continues to remain low...why not?
If America falls, which will bring down Japan, Europe, China, more than what it already has. How will housing in Australia survive a massive crash?

I'm amazed at how many people are getting into debt at time of so much uncertainty. Even more amazed the govt and banks are offering to bail them out if it falls. The next 5 - 10 years will be a very interesting experiment in government economic policy.

 

[kincella]

years ago I read the book 'the 7 habits of highly effective people' to check to see if I had missed something in my life...
one of the good habits is ''to start with the end in mind'
that is my approach to property.....its the end result I am looking for...and those 20 or 100 year charts point to a pretty impressive result...

some of you might like to read the book....A fortunate life...by A B Facey...
he taught himself to read and write...went to war....lived through the depression etc...and was pretty happy with his life....
cheers
:sheep:

 

[nunthewiser]

some of you might like to read the book....A fortunate life...by A B Facey...
he taught himself to read and write...went to war....lived through the depression etc...and was pretty happy with his life....
cheers
:sheep:

brilliant book actually

 

[kincella]

nun..is that a first...that we can agree on at least one thing ???
the books was similar to the kid with polio...and I can jump puddles...inspirational for overcoming life's problems

this is interesting....is gen y that bad ?
the recession they...gen y... had to have

http://smallbusiness.theage.com.au/...es!-614121229.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2

:sheep:

 

[michael_t_f]

Singlefished I agree, I am in the same boat and will not buy now. Why would you buy now it seems like a perfect storm for disaster.
Rising unemployment, other assets halved in value, FHOG ending soon, way overpriced properties, Australians in record credit card debt, other countries property prices well down. There is no way these prices can be sustained let alone boom unless there is large wage increases which will not happen.
The best thing to do with property at the moment in my opinion is to only buy if you have a large deposit and you can positively gear your investment and think long term, these people with a fhog getting a 95% will get burned.
I would be spruiking the same as the bulls though if I was mortgaged up to my eyeballs in overleveraged, overpriced
properties making no capital gains or if I was in the RE/mortgage industry.
I would like to have it explained to me by someone without an over biased opinion, with better expainations than "because my graph says so" or "property always goes up" or "in 1972....."

 

[robots]

hello,

Largesse, i went past that place and no SOLD sticker on it so dont know what has happened with that one,

I cant believe it, it just doesnt make sense, this cant be right

yeah chill out brothers, relax man, crack a can and sit back

thankyou
robots

 

[satanoperca]

Hi,

While I agree that in the long term property is a excellent vehicle for investment but we are discussing now and it seems that while some are seeing the bottom the government really has no clue as to how deep this contraction will be or does have a clue but doen't want all those sheepie running towards the cliff.

Treasurer Wayne Swan warned last week: "The simple fact is that a global recession, and deep downturns for our key trading partners, make it certain that our own forecasts for growth and revenue in the Budget will be substantially worse than in UEFO", referring to the Updated Economic and Fiscal Outlook, released in February.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25359475-601,00.html

Given the huge debt the government is amassing and the continuing downgrading of the world and Oz economy, if this is a long recession, then prices will fall. It would seem at the moment due to the low volumes that people are holding back from selling on the hope that those green shoots will turn into money trees in the next 12months.

At least the Chinese will still need our resources which would provide us with some cushioning.

Looking more at home, it would seem that RE prices in and around Port Melbourne have made a nice come back from the drop late last year. A couple of auctions that I have attended over the last few weeks have seen a good turn up of interested parties and several bidders, with good sales results.

Thanks Kincella for the book reference, will purchase it and add it to the book reading list.

Robots, it would seem that you are edging ahead, start licking those lips, but don't get to excited just yet and no fasting, still have several months to go.

Cheers

Benjamin

 

[robots]

hello,

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...-a-boomtime-clearance-rate-20090419-abg8.html

and when you have suburbs which have a majority which go to auction not much you can do,

anyway, If i want X for property you can give me X,

not much building going on to build another place, paradise

thankyou
robots

 

[Beej]

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...-a-boomtime-clearance-rate-20090419-abg8.html

Interesting article!

MELBOURNE'S auctions bounced back after Easter with a 79 per cent clearance rate reminiscent of boom times, but agents suggested prices and clearances were being kept high by low stock.

I stated this would happen 1 year ago on this thread - exact repeat almost of what happened in 1991.

Mr Fisher said March had been his agency's "best month in seven years" and April was looking fantastic.

"We've had quite a few buyers in that $700,000 to $1 million price range," he said. Obviously, the first-home buyers are out there, but the people who've sold to first-home buyers are now out looking themselves."

It's also been clear from looking at the auction results this year that this was starting to happen as well - the upgraders now more active as the FHB buying flows through. The boost to the market from the FHBs grant has quite a while to run through the whole market yet - probably to the end of the year and beyond even when the grant boost tap is turned off after June.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[robots]

hello,

thats right Beej, you spot on legend, get yourself a treat on the way home tonite man

i thought tonnes of properties for sale everywhere? but looks like people just staying put

thankyou
robots