House prices to keep rising for years

[nunthewiser]

hello,

yes Nun, great joint melbourne, the apartments are just new towers being offered by the likes of Central Equity, Becton and other mostly private developers

i would be more inclined to get an exisiting 1-bed or 2-bed in sth yarra, richmond, prahran, east melb

thankyou
robots

gday Robots

actually more intrested in these brand new u bewt swanky pads that maybe willl sit there unsold when they are finally completed ... maybe a firesale to cover costs ??

YES re richmond etc .much more character and buzz around there but not really looking at the established "proven" pads as they already got an expected pricetag that "normality" will keep up to a certain level ......

lol i wanna squeeze myself a nice new one from some poor hard done by developer type

anyways ..... have a great day man and enjoy that vast range of food and culture you guys have got so close to home

 

[Junior]

gday Robots

actually more intrested in these brand new u bewt swanky pads that maybe willl sit there unsold when they are finally completed ... maybe a firesale to cover costs ??

YES re richmond etc .much more character and buzz around there but not really looking at the established "proven" pads as they already got an expected pricetag that "normality" will keep up to a certain level ......

lol i wanna squeeze myself a nice new one from some poor hard done by developer type

anyways ..... have a great day man and enjoy that vast range of food and culture you guys have got so close to home

Docklands is the area where much of the development is occurring...they do seem like they're overdoing it there, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a few bargains in the coming years. However there's also some huge office developments happening including an ANZ building, so I guess this will provide some demand for accommodation in the immediate area.

Another area to look at is East Melbourne, there's two new luxury apartment developments happening. One of them is One East Melbourne, which is right on the fringe of the CBD, the penthouses are incredible and are advertised at 3-4 million+. The other is on Clarendon street overlooking Fitzroy gardens.

 

[robots]

hello,

gee there is some real sour apples around in society

most new towers in southbank, city or carlton get filled up by tenants (overseas students), alot of the developers (private) left in the game have many other business interests and just sit, sit, sit and sit on the property by either renting or slowly selling

Meriton is a classic example whereby he held heaps and converted them into short term executive type apartments,

we have one development kicking off on Chapel St, Sth Yarra next to como whereby a permit has only just been issued yet already well underway with basement carpark, crane onsite etc

bigW and some other shops going in and probably 200+ units

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

robots,
spot on...the kids and everyone else just love chapel st, its hot, its vibrant, and always busy......

have to take the dog down at least once a week..she likes KFC for a treat

parking is easy, in the car parks, a fav cake shop down there, and chemistwarehouse (so cheap, when you get a bit older and need all that stuff) then all the other hip fashion bargains.....and of course the fav eateries

btw...no it does not matter
I use chapel st as a barometer of society.....and its going strong for the gen Y's and gen X's
cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

yes kincella, its fantastic probably the hippest street in australia at the moment and we part of it brother just plodding along in life

everybody accepted down there

now cakes, people talk Acland st cake shops, Pattersons etc but if you after the real deal and not those gelatine infused vanilla slices then get down to this place:

http://www.womow.com.au/biz/Avivs-Cakes-Bagels/

the review there on the apple crumble is spot on, vanilla slices, any of the french or danish pasty,

another one past Coles on glenhuntly rd as well, support the economy

thankyou
robots

 

[ned_beaty]

hmmmmmmmmmmm

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=771092

"Declan Murphy, the chief executive of online home loan provider BidMyLoan, said the weakening local economy and rising unemployment would leave first home owners vulnerable to falling house prices."

I know I'll hear "that's not true because......" or whatever, but even the main stream is turning.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

[Bill M]

It’s cheaper to buy than rent

A new RP Data report shows 74 Australian suburbs where it is cheaper to buy than rent, reflecting the fundamental shifts in the property market.

The differences in savings ranged from as little as 42c a month to a whopping $3877.48 in Baynton, Western Australia.

FULL STORY HERE

 

[kincella]

buy a house for 1.50 plus 10,000 rates

...surely some can afford these prices
at under $500.....but apparently the houses come with yearly taxes of up to 8000.....but they can claim the interest as tax deductible...

I guess they also need to be able to afford the air fare....unless they just buy them over the internet....

read an article a few weeks ago of up to 400 people at a time, being taken in buses to view all those empty houses for sale,,,and the buyers were snapping them up

cannot understand why all those people in sacremento are living in tents,,,when they can buy a house for 1.50

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25184134-5013951,00.html

 

[overlap]

It may surprise you most of the world doesn't live in or care about places like Chapel St, Docklands....

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25181373-664,00.html

Hard times hitting home

First homebuyers are all but propping up the property market. After years of sitting on the sidelines they can now afford to buy. And with $21,000 (plus) from the Government, and interest rates at record lows, they can afford to borrow a bit more they email me about it all the time.

The banks understand this. So do the developers and the real estate agents. Yet as my mate, property expert Neil Jenman, says, committing yourself to the maximum when rates are at their minimum is a recipe for maximum pain in the future.

The storm will erupt in a few years time when many of these young homebuyers lose their jobs as a result of the prolonged economic downturn. Little savings, rising repayments, are ingredients for disaster (especially with an extra mouth or two to feed).

 

[ned_beaty]

buy a house for 1.50 plus 10,000 rates

cannot understand why all those people in sacremento are living in tents,,,when they can buy a house for 1.50

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25184134-5013951,00.html

Ummmm maybe because they have defaulted and there is no-one willing to loan them even $10000 to pay the rates for these. These people are in financial ruin from speculative property purchases. I'm pretty sure if it was as easy as flippin a buck fiddy to the guy and moving in they would take the option.

 

[sinner]

Read the comments, the last one rings true.

Been able to buy these houses for a few years now all over the US for anyone who was watching sub-prime unfold.

Funny how everyone over there was screaming "bargains! bargains!" the whole way down :/

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The problem for the RE permabulls is that the latest government subsidy, that helps to keep them from economic reality, looks like being too successful. Why rent when you can buy? Why buy an existing house when you get more taxpayer money from building a new one? So we have less renters and more new houses. And, down the track, less renters and more new houses and rising interest rates and rising unemployment.

This is how the (global housing bubbles) problems started in the first place - risk was subsidised or underpriced.

In other words, monetary policy that kept interest rates low for an extended period of time, tax policy that favored debt over equity, regulatory policy that allowed financial institutions to operate opaquely, and social policy that pushed home ownership regardless of affordability, all combined to create artificial economic demand that could only be financed with debt because the savings (i.e. equity) to purchase them did not exist.
Moreover, as more and more debt was created through financial engineering and policy prescription, the prices of these were bid up higher and higher. This led these products to become grossly inflated in value compared to any inherent economic worth they might possess. Once the bubble burst, their value dropped precipitously.

by Michael E. Lewitt

Unless you think that Australia is immune from the rest of the globe's financial, trade and manufacturing meltdown? The perfect storm brewing, but will they face reality?

 

[kincella]

and the RE permabears response....look at the US or anywhere else...one price fits all...everybody is the same...its a global village etc

the US has a surplus of over a million homes.....we have a deficit

sounds more like jealousy....than reality....

the bears can always go and buy the cheap houses in the US.....

I am providing for myself and family....no centrelink handouts needed ....
nor wanted..
I have a standard of lifestyle, that I intend to retain until I die....no way could I live on a pension....and I have no intention of living like a pauper

so I fund my own lifestyle....and so far property has proved very successful...
I also provide a service to the community...I provide good rental accommodation...to those who want, need or prefer to rent

in the meantime...I will be buying more props, and taking up as much of this 'window of opportunity' as I can....to support me for the future
cheap houses, low interest rates.....its heaven for a property investor..

otherwise to each their own....

 

[IFocus]

and the RE permabears response....look at the US or anywhere else...one price fits all...everybody is the same...its a global village etc

I own investments properties and have made strong returns as a result.

However I would be a complete fool not to have some appreciation of the global economy and its implications on the Australian economy flowing through to housing.

As said many times before this current Global story unfolding is unprecedented in your life time or as many now think all the way back to the 30's, you keep mentioning how you have been successful and as such should continue.

Not you nor I can tell what will happen in this current situation which dare I say it again is unprecedented. If you use your history or any history of housing pricing in Australian its going to be at best what?

Like you have already experienced?

As for the bear / bull thing I can only see it as a risk seeking environment or risk defending environment. I believe this is a risk defending environment now, when the next credit expansion starts I will return to risk seeking.

I am providing for myself and family....no centrelink handouts needed ....
nor wanted..
I have a standard of lifestyle, that I intend to retain until I die....no way could I live on a pension....and I have no intention of living like a pauper

And long may it continue

in the meantime...I will be buying more props, and taking up as much of this 'window of opportunity' as I can....to support me for the future
cheap houses, low interest rates.....its heaven for a property investor..

Remember many here who may read this and may not be in your strong position....

 

[Glen48]

I see the feds are talking about cutting Neg.gearing and only allowing a tax claim against the income from the IP not the total income of the owner/s.
They seem to think this ruling was one of the causes for suckers getting into property.
If you want 25% of a penthouse go to the GC or go to USA and get a house for $1.5 to 5K and get 10k in tax credits.

 

[Beej]

I see the feds are talking about cutting Neg.gearing and only allowing a tax claim against the income from the IP not the total income of the owner/s.
They seem to think this ruling was one of the causes for suckers getting into property.
If you want 25% of a penthouse go to the GC or go to USA and get a house for $1.5 to 5K and get 10k in tax credits.

Which Feds? Are you talking AU or US? Got a link to that story? Or is that just the speculation of some unknown blogger?

Government here in AU has always been adamant since the failed Keating/Hawke attempt to remove negative gearing for IPs in the 80s that it was here to stay.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[joeyr46]

article especially for the bulls, report for the government by The National Housing Supply Council in the Daily Telegraph (not sure last couple of days)

"In 2008, the housing shortfall was about 85,000 dwellings. In three years' time the number was expected to reach 203,000 and hit 431,000 by 2028.

The forecasts were based on recent housing development and government funding trends. If these trends slowed, the predicted shortfall could top 800,000, the report warned.

The shortfalls could also be higher than the report predicts because it fails to take in the impact of the global financial crisis."

Perfect example of linear thinking just like the experts did when oil was $150 a barrel, and of course we know the results of that. No I'm not bearish yet but not long term bullish either another run 6 to 12 months IMO should see us all forget the GFC but dont see any real shortage. Who knows with an ageing economy and a failing health system might get a surplus

 

[satanoperca]

For those who are interested :

The eight members of the National Housing Supply Council will be:

Mr Brendan Crotty, former Managing Director of Australand.
Mr Saul Eslake, ANZ Chief Economist.
Ms Sue Holliday, former Director General of Planning NSW.
Mr Chris Lamont, HIA Chief Executive - Policy.
Mr Marcus Spiller, Director SGS Economics.
Ms Marion Thompson, WA Urban Development Coordinator.
Mr Stuart Wilson, Managing Director of Wilson Homes.
Ms Judy Yates, one of Australia's pre-eminent housing researchers

A report is only as good as those that contribute to it.

 

[joeyr46]

For those who are interested :

The eight members of the National Housing Supply Council will be:

Mr Brendan Crotty, former Managing Director of Australand.
Mr Saul Eslake, ANZ Chief Economist.
Ms Sue Holliday, former Director General of Planning NSW.
Mr Chris Lamont, HIA Chief Executive - Policy.
Mr Marcus Spiller, Director SGS Economics.
Ms Marion Thompson, WA Urban Development Coordinator.
Mr Stuart Wilson, Managing Director of Wilson Homes.
Ms Judy Yates, one of Australia's pre-eminent housing researchers

A report is only as good as those that contribute to it.

No conflict of interest there then LOL

 

[lioness]

I had my auction today, not one bid. Amazing. An inner city townhouse priced between 450K and 500K and not one bid.

God help me when property does collapse.