House prices to keep rising for years

Beej said:

However, the above statement is a little condescending don't you think?

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No not really.. he was saying he got burnt over the "tech wreck" and that was what I was referring to in my quote. Losing money then is like saying I got busted for speeding by going fast in front of the Police. If people were buying shares at PE's of high double digits, on companies with no or negative earnings, and pie in the sky promises, one has to wonder at their ability to pick shares and I actually thought I was being helpful by recommending a LIC. No condescension was involved at all.

Beej said:

The current market burned many experienced players

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Indeed but once again that's not what he was talking about originally and not what my quote was in reference to.. that aside, some of us were simply accumulating cash for the last 18-24 months or so waiting for the overpriced market to correct, while people at STORM (for example) where pushing prices through the roof, albeit it corrected a whole crap load more quickly and to a greater depth then I expected, as you rightly point out.

Beej said:

I have been burned by this stock market simply by being in a very diversified SMA type set-up But what can you do? Made me wish I was still day trading through the whole thing to be honest, as I would have been able to cut my losses much sooner at the very minimum, but, c'est las vie!

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Day trading is a magic art that is of no interest to me. I understand I am not smart enough to beat the market so I don't attmept to, best of luck to others that try.

I haven't lost a cent, as I have not realised any gains (eg all my BHP portfolio is in the black) or loss's (some ANZ and some WBC for example). At the moment I have no real intention of selling for at least another 20 years.

I asked my friends who sold out and took the CG hit, what they intend to do.. invariably their response is to leave it as cash... it will be 3% soon... do they intend to invest in shares again I ask ? Absolutely, when the market recovers... when is that, ?ranges between 4000 and 6000 points apparently... so.. they sold out of good shares, some made a decent CG, some lost, some came out about even, those that made a CG took the tax hit on that, then are happy to park it in cash and buy back in (with less of an investment as they lost lots of their capital to tax) at about the same price they sold out for..that makes no sense to me what so ever but apparently that makes me the insane one "They" could be right, it might take 10 years before we see a return to where we were but I will have earned dividends way above what they are earning in interest in the mean time and have no need of the capital...

Your one of the guys I pay read on here by the way (no condescending again) I value your input and discussion, even if sometimes I don't agree with you.

I have made money out of both shares and property over the decades but I will never understand residential property (I like making cash and negative gearing is a anathema to me, and I seem to never find residential properties that are positively geared that appeal), it makes me nervous and is mostly why I avoid it... (only one IP left out of 4 owned) below sums up why I don't "get it"


no use investing on something you don't understand. As to commercial property, I have always been outbid by southerners (normally Syndey siders who bid site unseen) on local commercial property where I was looking at 10-11% nett returns and they were happy with 6% (lucky local landlords I guess who sold ) so while I tried in the past to dip my toes, I never got anywhere and decided to use my capital to expand my business instead.

A tough time to invest in real estate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/wor...39million-deposit-worlds-expensive-house.html

Adam A said:

I,m very suspicious of any real estate reporting in any newspapers
I think a lot of it is loaded with self interest. In my local area a full page colour add cost $4000.00 for one issue
Ive also noticed that my colour section of the real estate in my local rag, has dropped quite a lot in quantity of adds in the months prior to christmas.

I also understand that realestate adds are number one in revenue for the papers with car adds next!

The papers must be hurting

I believe the press will grab at any positive news, and will ride to death all the way down, just like they did in the UK

I have two friends currently on the market,both of them are now at prices from 2004,both are still not sold

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Bit of an update for people
Both properties still not sold even with further reductions (northern beaches location)
Id be interested to know re northern beaches sales under $600.000 if the current sellers are ppr upgrading or investers getting out and offloading to fhb

to each his own...
I bought a commercial that was returning 10%...on very cheap rent...fixed that......mv was double that amount, anyway there were some stuff ups, it was a bargain, agent had no idea, I have no intention of selling...hand it down to the kids
in the meantime..earning 5% on combined resi and commercial props...100,000pa ....which meant I could semi retire earlier....
I am in the group that does not care about returns on resi...its the capital growth....and the tenants pay the holding costs....
other little props I bought, when everyone else was still in negative mode, and sold when everyone started buying....returned about 400,000 cash in the bank, after paying back the loans....not bad for a couple of years passive income.....

kincella said:

to each his own...
I bought a commercial that was returning 10%...on very cheap rent...fixed that......mv was double that amount, anyway there were some stuff ups, it was a bargain, agent had no idea, I have no intention of selling...hand it down to the kids
in the meantime..earning 5% on combined resi and commercial props...100,000pa ....which meant I could semi retire earlier....
I am in the group that does not care about returns on resi...its the capital growth....and the tenants pay the holding costs....
other little props I bought, when everyone else was still in negative mode, and sold when everyone started buying....returned about 400,000 cash in the bank, after paying back the loans....not bad for a couple of years passive income.....

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I was in a syndicate years ago, I got out, they went broke for a while when the crash of the early 90's took hold.

Mainly office buildings refurbishment , strata then sell off.

I'm very conservative they weren't.

I should be out looking for deals now but feel it's too early, what do you think ?

I think you should start looking now, who knows how long it will take to find the right prop....now is the time to keep an eye out, with everyone panicking...when bargains may turn up...and the agents are fried....depressed, like rabbits stunned by the glare of headlights

property trusts are in trouble with all the borrowing...so you might find something to suit in a sell off
who knows how long this thing will last...but anytime within a year or so, and you have to get it right

took me 5 years to find the property I wanted...well it was the location more than anything...and then I missed out on another 2...terrific bargain prices...
had my eye off the ball...a lot of props in that area had been handed down from generations to generations....hardly ever on the market...

I am only interested in retail shops....not offices...not strip shops (low rents)
main st locations...or bigger well known areas like chapel st, bridge road, not swan st etc
was one in chapel st for 500.000 about 5 years ago..same today would be double that amount....self funded retirees and dyo superfunds have been in that market past 10 years...offering competition...

I sold so many bargains when I was an agent, oh well thats in the past.

I tend to look at the big picture too closely, I feel that if it hits the fan ( I think it has already) business won't be able to pay the current rents so returns and prices will go backward.

I always will only buy location, never a tenant or a lease, you have to say to yourself "if this was vacant could I find a tenant?". If the answer isnt an immediate "yes" then forget it.

Good luck with yours

chapel st is gen Y territory, and tourists..plenty of traffic...small shops...
been as busy as ever down there lately....shops have big discounts...
good idea to keep watch on that spot.....since gen y live at home..no mortgage...
in Melb they change the offices to resi and back again depending on the economy...just never liked offices...aka small business...and they can panick and close up shop quickly...
have to go out and have a look...see if there are any closing down sales...
I do not like Toorak Rd either....or anywhere its a clearway...very damaging to business
you have been in the game..so you know what to look for...were you only selling commercial...did you ever buy commercial ??? thought the agents get the good ones for themselves ???

kincella said:

chapel st is gen Y territory, and tourists..plenty of traffic...small shops...
been as busy as ever down there lately....shops have big discounts...
good idea to keep watch on that spot.....since gen y live at home..no mortgage...
in Melb they change the offices to resi and back again depending on the economy...just never liked offices...aka small business...and they can panick and close up shop quickly...
have to go out and have a look...see if there are any closing down sales...
I do not like Toorak Rd either....or anywhere its a clearway...very damaging to business
you have been in the game..so you know what to look for...were you only selling commercial...did you ever buy commercial ??? thought the agents get the good ones for themselves ???

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Was in commercial for over 20 years.

Bought some but you cant buy your own listings so had to be careful, also had the agent mentality when I saw a good one I was on the phone to clients without thinking of ME. Thinking more of the commission than the big picture.

Not keen on strip retail thats the first to go in a downturn even Burke Rd Camberwell gets the shakes every now and again.

You have to buy something with an edge to to, when I was in the syndicate we had millions of dollars in office blocks and industrial but there had to be a development edge, borrowed the lot even stamp duty and refurbishment costs, had no money in many times but knew the outcome would be profitable so there wasnt a problem. I got out when I saw their confidence was over the top, they thought they were invincible.

Different story these days but I might start looking again, just talking about it has got my interest up again.

I think Burke rd is very different to Chapel st, its an older different market...so I would really want a bargain there to tempt me, prefer chapel st any day...and little hiccups are ok...

are you retired, still have a licence...get into the game again part time...or just find something for your self..

there was a place I was interested in..right price and location, and it was vacant...just what I wanted...then the agent leased it at a low rent to some PC guys..tied it up for 10 years.....I totally lost interest...the tenants were totally unsuited to that particular location, and to be tied up for so long...grrrr

I could have taken the risk that the tenant would fall over within 3 years....but interest rates were rising and the rent would not have covered even an interest only loan....

kincella said:

I think Burke rd is very different to Chapel st, its an older different market...so I would really want a bargain there to tempt me, prefer chapel st any day...and little hiccups are ok...

are you retired, still have a licence...get into the game again part time...or just find something for your self..

there was a place I was interested in..right price and location, and it was vacant...just what I wanted...then the agent leased it at a low rent to some PC guys..tied it up for 10 years.....I totally lost interest...the tenants were totally unsuited to that particular location, and to be tied up for so long...grrrr

I could have taken the risk that the tenant would fall over within 3 years....but interest rates were rising and the rent would not have covered even an interest only loan....

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Still got the license, retired I guess, but still want to earn money somehow instead of relying on 4% interest in the bank

More news from the Northern Beaches.
------------


Buyers crowd into Collaroy

BUYERS have descended on Collaroy and Collaroy Plateau this month with people fighting for property and agents rushed off their feet.

"We had 38 groups through, four active buyers and it was a race to buy with no building or pest reports, no cooling off and the first one with a cheque on my desk,’’ he said.

FULL STORY HERE

Bill M said:

More news from the Northern Beaches.
------------


Buyers crowd into Collaroy

BUYERS have descended on Collaroy and Collaroy Plateau this month with people fighting for property and agents rushed off their feet.

"We had 38 groups through, four active buyers and it was a race to buy with no building or pest reports, no cooling off and the first one with a cheque on my desk,’’ he said.

FULL STORY HERE

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It would appear RE agents are taking to written English literature classes in desperation.

http://www.travismorien.com/FAQ/realestate/reliars.htm

As well as "the run" you also get the infamous "BUY NOW!!!" and "BUY THIS!!!" advertorials in papers, where regardless of where in the cycle we are, and whatever the property is like, glowing marketing hype extols the probably non-existent virtues of the market right now being the ideal time to buy and this property being the ultimate investment opportunity. There is very little truth in advertising in real estate, you have to be very cautious when reading anything written by a real estate agent. The market is always "booming" and now is always the "last chance" and this is always a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity". You cannot rely on real estate agents to provide any kind of realistic unbiased analysis. They make their money convincing people who thought they were happy where they were to tell their homes, and people who actually wanted something quite different to buy them.

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UBIQUITOUS said:

It would appear RE agents are taking to written English literature classes in desperation.

http://www.travismorien.com/FAQ/realestate/reliars.htm

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Except the originally referenced article contains information on specific, verifiable property sales (with addresses). So if you doubt the veracity of those, by all means check and PROVE your assertion that the article is nothing but RE marketing BS.

Cheers,

Beej

Beej said:

Except the originally referenced article contains information on specific, verifiable property sales (with addresses). So if you doubt the veracity of those, by all means check and PROVE your assertion that the article is nothing but RE marketing BS.

Cheers,

Beej

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If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck.......

Here is some more who should have purchased in St.Kilda:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/02/18/article-1148887-0390B97F000005DC-465_468x349_popup.jpg
From Patrick.net

UBIQUITOUS said:

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck.......

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it's a swan, according to the RE agents :

hello,

wow, what another fantastic day 25 degrees sun out and shining bright for all of us

went for bicycle ride along the Elwood and Brighton foreshore what a splendid area being enjoyed by many, had a couple of cafe latte's at Brighton, very very nice, utopia

oh well at least some can keep attacking real estate agents, as we still at 7x income to average price, rents up, interest rates down and property prices plodding along,

thankyou
robots

Do you work Robots? Or do you just hang out and enjoy the weather? I think alot more people will be able to enjoy the sunshine in Melbourne now that they are unemployed. Will house prices be able to stand up without this demand...

hello,

yes i work, but to me its just life rolling on (the easiest way of making $ for our existence)

finished early afternoon so detoured and went on a luxurious ride down along the foreshore track

flipped 2-bob to some guy out the front of Coles St Kilda muttering things very similar to what Glen48 writes

kevin07 is keeping the country rolling on but its up to the people man

thankyou
robots