House prices to keep rising for years

[shaunQ]

Only heard the tail end of a story on the radio today but they were saying one of the big problems with QLD (and especially the Gold Coast) was the purchase of units off the plan. It was something like 1300 constructed and only 36(ish) have been settled. The rest remain unsold or will be forced sales. People can't meet the requirements for settlement now they are completed. This will drag down the QLD median price.

Within 10 kms I can name 10 estates midway through. No real price movement though, just extras. The remainder of the market seems stable but on edge, if these all rush on it, combined with the increasing unemployment it could be devastating.

 

[robots]

hello,

vested interest, gee it all sounds so familiar

thankyou
robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

considering the sensitivity of the issue, and no doubt BTL will be the first article Wayne will pull up, which is not a lot different to buying a new product

no worries man

thankyou
robots

'bot

In case you didn't realize, BTL stands for Buy To Let which is the process of buying residential property in order to rent it out for money.

BTL(England) = IP(Australia)

How is that somehow not relevant to the argument? What's the difference?

 

[numbercruncher]

New releaase from ABS ....... raises a Q or 2 ....

"Between 1986 and 2006, the number of private dwellings in Australia increased by 45% (or 2.6 million dwellings), while the number of people living in private dwellings increased by substantially less at 28%. "

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/C9B7D8423519C6F7CA25754C0025E098?OpenDocument

 

[wayneL]

hello,

vested interest, gee it all sounds so familiar

thankyou
robots

 

[robots]

'bot

In case you didn't realize, BTL stands for Buy To Let which is the process of buying residential property in order to rent it out for money.

BTL(England) = IP(Australia)

How is that somehow not relevant to the argument? What's the difference?

hello,

BTL is very much packaged, promoted as an Off the Plan, New Apartment, New Product, multi-story, gold coast unit etc etc

and therefore $ for a developer, promoter etc and has shown to be very ordinary as an investment

sure that has changed in the UK with the issues at hand (ie more existing stock is "packaged")and similarly things changed here back in 03-05 after the likes of Kaye, Central Equity, Meriton etc

thanks, top effort

have a great day

thankyou
robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

BTL is very much packaged, promoted as an Off the Plan, New Apartment, New Product, multi-story, gold coast unit etc etc

and therefore $ for a developer, promoter etc and has shown to be very ordinary as an investment

sure that has changed in the UK with the issues at hand (ie more existing stock is "packaged")and similarly things changed here back in 03-05 after the likes of Kaye, Central Equity, Meriton etc

thanks, top effort

have a great day

thankyou
robots

Wrong.

To be certain, BTL has been packaged up as you describe by many "entrepreneurs", but BTL is simply the purchase of property to let out... any residential property; from London flats, to country estates.

My 2 BTLs are 4 bedroom houses in a village in Somerset. Not bought off the plan, not flats, not even bought from a developer... just pain old second hand houses. Yet they are still BTL.

Why?

I Bought To Let.

 

[dirty_harry]

Are Yellow, brown , white suburbs better investments ?

Political correctness should not get in the way of stating the facts.
Unfortunately he is quite correct, for example the median price in Detroit is around $10,000. I wonder why. If you want to live in fantasy land you could buy a house in Somalia, Congo, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Chad, or Sudan.
Good luck.

 

[2BAD4U]

New releaase from ABS ....... raises a Q or 2

I'll see your Q or 2 and raise you an A or 2:

The higher rate of growth in housing stock can be linked to the steady decline in the average number of people per occupied private dwelling, from 4.5 persons in 1911 to 2.51 in 2006. A range of demographic, economic and social changes are associated with this decline. Families having on average fewer children, and a decreasing prevalence of multigenerational households, have been strong drivers of smaller average household sizes. More recently, smaller average household size has also been attributed to an increase in lone person and couple only households.2 The growth in lone person and couple only households is explored further in ‘Living arrangements overview’, p. 60–72.

Another factor in the greater growth in dwelling numbers compared with the population has been the general increase from 1911 to 2006 in the proportion of private dwellings that were unoccupied on Census Night (from 4% to 10% of private dwellings). This growth does not necessarily mean a greater proportion of homes are not being lived in, but is more likely to have occurred due to changes in lifestyles and increasing affluence. Some houses may be unoccupied as they are second or holiday homes; alternatively, houses may be temporarily vacant due to the occupants being away on business or vacations, or at other people's homes on Census Night. In 2006 the proportion of unoccupied dwellings was higher in rural areas (22% of dwellings unoccupied in Bounded Localities and 16% in Rural Balance) than in the rest of Australia.

linklinklink.....link

 

[2BAD4U]

If you have the time and want to brush up on why the Australian banking system is different to the rest of the world then read THIS .
Basically if our banks are still lending it will stimulate the housing market (and Mr.Swan and KRUDD are stimulating :alcohol, if foreign banks aren't lending and having to foreclose at greater levels then this will have adverse effects on housing.

And the final word goes to Swanee:

Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday: "Supporting the construction industry, boosting it and boosting demand generally, of which construction is a significant part", was a "very high priority" for the Government

 

[MR.]

http://compareshares.com.au/case39.php

According to the study of 265 markets across Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States – the Sunshine Coast in Queensland takes out the number one spot as the most unaffordable place to buy a home, closely followed by the Gold Coast in third spot and Sydney in fifth. Bundaberg in Queensland, Adelaide, Melbourne, Mandurah and Woollongong also feature in the top 20.

-----------
8/20 for Australia.
St Kilda might still have room to move up yet!
Now what's happening in the real world?

 

[dirty_harry]

I think house prices probably will come down around Australia. However one very important thing to consider is that we have no property taxes (except land tax for investment properties). Property tax in the US is around 1.5% of the value per year depending on the state, i.e. a 2mill house would have taxes of 30,000/yr. Compared to this our council rates are trivial. Similar around Europe. In Australia we have high entry and exit costs like stamp duty, but relatively low holding costs if it's your primary residence. This supports relatively higher prices.

 

[numbercruncher]

Political correctness should not get in the way of stating the facts.
Unfortunately he is quite correct, for example the median price in Detroit is around $10,000. I wonder why. If you want to live in fantasy land you could buy a house in Somalia, Congo, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Chad, or Sudan.
Good luck.

??? wtf ....

We talk suburbs and you bring up countries and a city .... always changing the goal posts ...

Im not sure what your saying .... is it that detroits median is 10k because of black people ?? Because realists would say it because of a collapsed Auto industry and mass exodus of people from the city regardless of colour ...

But Australian permabulls live in an altered reality so nothing you guys say surprises me anymore ....

And yes I do realise that some suburbs have depressed prices because they become ethnic ghettos etc ....

 

[numbercruncher]

I'll see your Q or 2 and raise you an A or 2:



linklinklink.....link

Awesome your article compares 1911 to 2006 mine compares 1986 to 2006.

Keep up the good work ....

House prices to boom forever.

The Global economic crisis does not exist.

My neighbour will not lose his job.

Kangaroos are our saviour.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Awesome your article compares 1911 to 2006 mine compares 1986 to 2006.

Keep up the good work ....

House prices to boom forever.

The Global economic crisis does not exist.

My neighbour will not lose his job.

Kangaroos are our saviour.

I thought Koala skins were more valuable?

PS: Can ride for up to 2 hours and walk for up to 1 hour now Numbs. Actually managed to walk up and down the fairly steep 300m hill behind our suburb the other day. Could feel the tendons and ligaments stre-e-tching! Hows your gammy pin?

 

[wayneL]

Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday: "Supporting the construction industry, boosting it and boosting demand generally, of which construction is a significant part", was a "very high priority" for the Government

So basically, the construction industry cannot survive on its own merits; it needs taxpayer funds to support it.

hmmmm, what's that telling us?

 

[numbercruncher]

So basically, the construction industry cannot survive on its own merits; it needs taxpayer funds to support it.

hmmmm, what's that telling us?

Exactly .... and it seems Swan song is suggesting the Government pulls on both ends of the string .... how they plan to do that is anyones guess but it sounds expensive .... perhaps they can let the failing hospital system completely collapse so they can build more empty shopping centres, factories etc ???

Supporting the construction industry, boosting it and boosting demand

 

[numbercruncher]

I thought Koala skins were more valuable?

PS: Can ride for up to 2 hours and walk for up to 1 hour now Numbs. Actually managed to walk up and down the fairly steep 300m hill behind our suburb the other day. Could feel the tendons and ligaments stre-e-tching! Hows your gammy pin?

Oh yes I forgot about those pesky lil Koalas dont see them often these days, Robi is probably turning them into Lattes or something ...


Awesome news on the foot m8, must be geting close to 100pc seen your doing hills ? I cant do (steep) hills yet but improving rapidly , should be close to as good as ill get in about 8 weeks, the bone has healed now ....

 

[numbercruncher]

The golden child WA seems to be getting a hammering !!

THE West Australian property market is being decimated following the evaporation of the resources boom, with values of $1 million-plus properties plummeting 20 per cent and the equivalent of more than two years' supply of homes flooding real estate agencies.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24929833-2702,00.html


Kincella and Harry how could this happen ? Did the good people of WA use to much tanning lotion ?

 

[Aussiejeff]

Exactly .... and it seems Swan song is suggesting the Government pulls on both ends of the string .... how they plan to do that is anyones guess but it sounds expensive .... perhaps they can let the failing hospital system completely collapse so they can build more empty shopping centres, factories etc ???

Gummint is starting to look like a one-armed juggler with 50 balls in the air - and that one arm looks like it is getting a bit tired.....

A growing number of analysts seem to be suggesting that the scale of the problem means Oz's miniscule economy is looking just a wee bit more fragile and parlous than the eternal she'll-bounce-back-soon-don't-miss-the-bargain-now optimists might spout.


aj