House prices to keep rising for years

[numbercruncher]

Dont worry Beej your house (and Robis) arnt losing value, thats all that matters mate.

 

[Geoff]

Your lucky that the Labor party bubble lovers are proping it up, slowing the demise a little.

Funny how things pan out, Turnbull reckons he would let it burn.

Market forces will get their way in the end. If you pour money into the economy you blow out foreign debt and eventually your economy goes down the ****ter anyway.

All Labor are doing is delaying the inevitable and putting us in bad shape for the recovery. Maybe we'll get a softer ride down but that's about it.

 

[Glen48]

Ch 7 news House valued at 17M owner wanted 14M went to auction he got 9M.
Penthouse on G.C paid 2.5 M sold for 700K .
Luck only the high prices house are collapsing eeehh?

 

[numbercruncher]

Yes "pent up demand" and Gov incentives have slowed the entry level price crash a little, day of reckoning draws near ...

 

[numbercruncher]

Plenty of RE gamblers getting smoked in mining towns.

TIMES are tough throughout the Australian mining industry.

In recent weeks, a seemingly endless stream of cutbacks and closures - from the smallest miners to the world's largest, BHP Billiton - have rocked regional towns around the country.

A collapse in commodity prices and demand is responsible for what industry veterans have deemed the most rapid switch from boom to bust in mining history.

Newly minted mining towns such as Hopetoun, Western Australia - near the site of the Ravensthorpe nickel laterite operation BHP decided to close last week - have never experienced this sort of instant devastation.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/boom-to-bust-in-mining-town-20090125-7phb.html

 

[Aussiejeff]

Yes "pent up demand" and Gov incentives have slowed the entry level price crash a little, day of reckoning draws near ...

With interest rates about to hit all time lows, is there not just a teeny-weeny bit of danger in hooking zillions of first home buyers up with monster mortgages?

I mean, what happens when hyper-inflation hits and interest rates sky rocket?

If you have 1,000's now just being able to afford to sign up for a new home at today's & tomorrows rates (let's speculate 4-5% on average by mid 2009?), what happens when the rates soar rapidly to 9-10%? (pure speculation as to when but possibly in as little as 2 years time).

Will many of those who jump in now be able to afford rapidly increasing monthly repayments?

I'm sure Brother Robots can enlighten me...

 

[numbercruncher]

Heya AJ - hows that foot fairing mate ?


Yes a spike in Interest rates would hurt em hard ....


Nearly all the papers over Australias bubble as shown by demographis today ....

An international housing affordability survey has rated all of Australia's major capital cities as severely unaffordable housing markets.

Australia now has some of the most expensive housing in the world.

The fifth Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey covers 265 markets in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The survey compares median house prices with median household incomes in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States, and has rated Queensland's Sunshine Coast as the most expensive housing market in the world.

A rating of 5.1 or more indicates a severely unaffordable market and the Sunshine Coast rates 9.6.

It is followed by Honolulu in Hawaii, the Gold Coast in Queensland, Vancouver in Canada, and Sydney, in fifth place.

Adelaide and Melbourne have tied for 12th place, ahead of New York and London.

Perth, Brisbane and Hobart ranked in the twenties, with Darwin not far behind.

Canberra may only come in at 60th on the list, but it is still considered severely unaffordable.

No Australian towns or cities made it into the survey's list of 87 affordable housing markets.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/26/2474087.htm

 

[overlap]

Apparently Oz isn't so bad after all. It should be noted that affordable, expensive and over-valued are different things.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/26/2474283.htm

A leading property analyst says a survey, which rates Australia as having some of the world's most expensive housing markets, does not take a large enough sample of countries into account.

The fifth annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey ranks the Sunshine and Gold Coasts in Queensland, and Sydney in New South Wales, among the five least affordable housing markets.

The survey sample included 265 markets in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the UK and the US, comparing median house prices with median household incomes.

No Australian towns or cities made it into the survey's list of 87 affordable housing markets.

But Louis Christopher from the investment research group, Adviser Edge, says if the survey took Asian countries and more of Europe into account, Australia would not rate quite so highly.

"If we included most of the first world, we would have been in a situation where we probably would have been in the middle of the road, perhaps getting towards the high end, but certainly not at or near the very top in my opinion," he said.

Mr Christopher says because affordability can be measured a number of different ways, the findings can be skewed.

"On the break-up of a price per square metre basis, Australia's still looking quite affordable," he said.

"It's one thing to compare a house in Sydney with a two-bedroom terrace in the middle of London, and judge our property as being far more expensive when the reality is on a price per square metre basis, we've really got it made."

 

[numbercruncher]

"If we included most of the first world, we would have been in a situation where we probably would have been in the middle of the road, perhaps getting towards the high end, but certainly not at or near the very top in my opinion," he said.

Hilarious !!!


Why doesnt the bludger get off his backside and actually compile a study instead of Guessing ???

 

[roofa]

With interest rates about to hit all time lows, is there not just a teeny-weeny bit of danger in hooking zillions of first home buyers up with monster mortgages?

I mean, what happens when hyper-inflation hits and interest rates sky rocket?

If you have 1,000's now just being able to afford to sign up for a new home at today's & tomorrows rates (let's speculate 4-5% on average by mid 2009?), what happens when the rates soar rapidly to 9-10%? (pure speculation as to when but possibly in as little as 2 years time).

Will many of those who jump in now be able to afford rapidly increasing monthly repayments?

I'm sure Brother Robots can enlighten me...

I'd be suprised if the majority didn't lock in long term if they felt any danger of not being able to service the debt.

 

[kincella]

just to keep some things real....heres a list of melb suburbs...auctions on 13.12.08...lists each burb and the price sold etc....roughly half sold....all prices....cheapies to over millions....something for everyone out there....
real people with real money buying and selling.....not listening to the naysayers on this site...too busy doing something about a roof over their heads....moving on...whatever

from the domain site...pick your state and check it out

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/melbourne_domain.pdf

 

[numbercruncher]

Hello Kincella,


Yes I see clearly " roughly half sold " , prices down as well huh .... not adding much to the " House prices to keep rising for years " theory ?


Thankyou.

 

[kincella]

you are guessing the prices are down...they could be up...those little one bdrs? ...
a suburb I watch, they have been paying top dollar for the little awful things out there...just because they are cheap...
and some props are up 300% over the past couple of years...whats 5% here or there then...
I am not talking about half mill or one mill dollar props....or the one that sold for 10 mill...turned down offer of 13-14 mill months ago....
but I know of a 200,000 prop thats now worth over a mill....but not for sale...it may come on the market for 2 mill some time in the future

 

[Glen48]

It appears Wives are turning up at their husbands work place with the soon to be Ex husbands belongings and tell the poor bloke it is all over...how many more Houses will that put on the market??

 

[numbercruncher]

but I know of a 200,000 prop thats now worth over a mill....but not for sale...it may come on the market for 2 mill some time in the future

As we huddle around the BBQ to tell fishing stories .....

 

[Glen48]

It is not worth 1 mill until it is sold for that amount, then you will know what it is worth.

 

[kincella]

glen, I know what its worth,.......easy to compare, its not like rolling the dice and where the number lands is the price.....the history charts can guide you to future prices.....I did not say when it was purchased, it could have been held for 20 odd years, or more....
also know the cost of another prop for 12,000 in 1970, now land value alone is 1 mill.....40 years on....long time to wait,,, sorry living in the family home....

a lot of city folk have been in that situation....then sold and gone to tree or sea change areas, buy similar prop for a third of the price and have a heap of cash for those rainy days...

above examples were just modest props, nothing fancy, in fact quite ordinary

you cannot see where the prices of houses will go in the future can you ????

hint look at the history....ps talking aus props...not japan or iceland etc

 

[nunthewiser]

LOL sunshine and lollipops


blessya

 

[Beej]

Ch 7 news House valued at 17M owner wanted 14M went to auction he got 9M.
Penthouse on G.C paid 2.5 M sold for 700K .
Luck only the high prices house are collapsing eeehh?

It appears Wives are turning up at their husbands work place with the soon to be Ex husbands belongings and tell the poor bloke it is all over...how many more Houses will that put on the market??

Are these stats/stories as accurate as your proven completely wrong/false Toronto stats??

Was just chatting to various friends/folks at a nice Australia Day BBQ today - one friend of a friend selling a terrace in trendy water-side inner west suburb looking for ~$1.6M+ - first weekend on the market this weekend 39 groups inspected the property.... Another couple at the BBQ just bought a house on north shore, going to knock it down and build a new house - been their goal/dream for years, now going through with it because interest rates are low, they saved their money already etc and the numbers now stack up - why would they wait any longer? Same BBQ, one friends partner works at one of the big four in the 100% LVR mortgage department! (Thought they were all extinct according to everyone here???) They said business is booming - never been more volume for them - according to this guy they are very careful about credit checks, income checks, valuations etc etc and their default rate is currently running at < 0.5%, with any risk to the bank of losses covered by the mortgage insurance still, and everything still going strong. Most of their funding is from local sources, some o/s component. Some tightness from the o/s side but still money around and certainly no major credit crunch/freeze according to this person - with AU seen by o/s as a low risk market even in the current environment and even for the 100% LVR loan market.

Life goes on folks, people still buying selling property (in Sydney at least) every week. Watch this space - Sydney leads the AU market - mark my words. There is no great crash.

Beej

 

[Glen48]

Kincella
If you want to stand in front of an oncoming Forest fire that's your business. me I saw it coming and ran.
Home owners will be able to start bleating soon about how the Feds should have warned them house prices would dive or complain the FHO set them up in a trap or want the ATO to bail them out just like the suckers in Storm.