House prices to keep rising for years

[sinner]

the graph defies logic....interest rates were rising.....what happened in March 08 to make it escalate so much ???? a gain of 60%

robots was "nice" enough to clip out the site disclaimer stating that the suburb had less than 35 sales for the quarter therefore the readings are "volatile" and probably not representative.

 

[robots]

hello,

some would say Sinner that is a very strong reason for the results on the graph,

thanks for highlighting that point, less than 35 sales, silly me

the title still going strong brothers

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

sinner, I did check that graph against CBA's information...it too did not have enough sales...but whats the other option for suburbs that have too few sales....consistently.....you just have to take it as it is......obviously a low turnover suburb,,,,similar to Toorak
ps..CBA use only loan data to give a report...so if for some reason CBA did not generate loans in a suburb for any reason....than forget it.....however I believe CBA has the biggest loan book of all 4....and they do not change the figures for CPI or any other reason.... some reports I have seen going back 30 years or more have been changed to reflect now, the CPI costs then....and it makes it harder to substantiate those graphs against other reports of actual prices...who knows what else has been tampered with

 

[numbercruncher]

the graph defies logic....interest rates were rising.....what happened in March 08 to make it escalate so much ???? a gain of 60%

Yes demonstrates the RE market left to self regulation in Oz has seen it become one big fat scam ..... Imagine if the stock markets etc were run in the same non regulated fashion.

 

[robots]

hello,

thats right Kincella, you just have to take the results as they are when you consistently have less than 35 sales, that's life man

thats life man, nirvana

and for those who work hard and put in in society the rewards are there, well done to those putting in

thankyou
robots

 

[grace]

.............

..........................................................
some or all of the above sound familiar to you ???
well most of it comes from the bears .....they all have some excuses or many excuses.....and it comes in the form of the arguments they have against property as an investment......
hence the reason there are so few property bulls....less than 10% of the population invest in property....90% do not...
but 70% of the population buy their own home.....
I think its funny

I am a property bear at present. I bought my first house at the age of 21 (at 13.5% interest rate I might add). Paid it off in 3 years. Bought my second house then, and so on.

But right now, we are nearlly all in cash (own a few shares and a bit of real estate, not much).

Just because we are bears does not mean we don't like investing in property!

Just not the right time yet.....

 

[Glen48]

Come to the Sunshine Coast and save a 100K off in Holidays homes. no competiton FHO's are the only buyers using ATO money.

 

[numbercruncher]

Time to change subjects...

Reasons.

a) limited supply and increasing demand (immigration)

b) increasing building costs of new homes ripples through to all housing

c) increasing minimum expectations (McMansions)

d) increasing wealth trickling down from mining boom

e) increasing cost of capital (interest rates)

f) increasing wage pressure

This was the opening post with arguments why " House prices to keep rising for years " .......

All the permabulls agreed with the OP - then medians fell and how many of these reasons are still valid ?

Permabulls pulled some new reasons out of the hat though ....

 

[noirua]

Look across the pond and you see the property industry black clouds approaching. Realistic research may not work in the turbulence to come.

 

[sinner]

I am a property bear at present. I bought my first house at the age of 21 (at 13.5% interest rate I might add). Paid it off in 3 years. Bought my second house then, and so on.

If you don't mind me asking, what was your personal house price:salary ratio when you bought your first house and what was the avg at the time?

If it took 3 years I assume the ratio must have been >3:1, which is below even the historical average.

Did you use deposit bonds or any similar instruments to buy the house?

 

[numbercruncher]

If it took 3 years I assume the ratio must have been >3:1, which is below even the historical average.

Before the bubble there was plenty of renovators delights at 3:1 (and even less for apartments) , the historical average got you a average house folks.

My first house was 3.5x my salary (above average salary at the time) and it was a really nice house .....

 

[robots]

Before the bubble there was plenty of renovators delights at 3:1 (and even less for apartments) , the historical average got you a average house folks.

My first house was 3.5x my salary (above average salary at the time) and it was a really nice house .....

hello,

and where was the house Number? people today can get the same deal in suburbs across Melbourne

st kilda up 14.8% for Sept08, see the graph bro

thankyou
robots

 

[robots]

hello,

and with the anniversary coming up on 15th Feb will be a great time,

money renting rates well down, returns doing well both on capital gain and rental aspect, utopia here in St Kilda man

wonder how the money box crew are going with the trades? ABS stats will be interesting again

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

More and more people questioning Australias dodgy realestate bodies .....

How much is your house worth? Who knows?

Adam Schwab writes:

For many Australians, the vast majority of their assets consist of their primary residence or investment properties. Treasury estimated in 2006 that 55% of net private sector wealth consisted of "dwelling assets", with the figure far higher for the middle class (the uber-wealthy tend to own much of their assets in the form of "income producing" business interests).

Despite the importance of dwelling assets to many Australians, there is no accurate and transparent body which provides historical price information about property to investors or home-owners. Unlike publicly traded companies (who generally trade on the ASX), price data regarding residential property is generally provided by real estate bodies, such as the Real Estate institute of Victoria or New South Wales.

As Crikey revealed recently, the accuracy of such data provided by real estate bodies is questionable, being produced and reported by real estate agents who themselves have a significant vested interest in disclosing minimal information and overly positive results.

http://www.crikey.com.au/Search.html?searchKeyWord=how+much+is+your+house+worth&Author=&YearFrom=0&MonthFrom=0&YearTo=0&MonthTo=0&Section=&SearchTags=&SortField=#simple

 

[sinner]

hello,

and where was the house Number? people today can get the same deal in suburbs across Melbourne

Which people? Where in Melbourne? If we take graces example of buying at 21, indicating most likely single income around average and using the Nov 2007 avg salary calculation of $57,000 (we can round up to $60k if you like) we are talking about $180k max house price.

A quick search on domain and realestate.com.au indicate to me that in Melbourne you aren't getting anything more than a studio apartment for $180,000. I don't know too much about Melbourne RE so did a Sydney search too, you aren't even going to get a kick up the butt for $180,000.

Certainly not a block of land with a house on it or even a 2br apartment unless you are willing to commute 2 hours to work!

We are talking of offerings <40sqm type studio apartments for 3:1 ratio on the boom-time avg salary at $60k.

Anyone who thinks the Australian RE market will be able to avoid a return to historical norms which has affected every single country which used the wholesale debt market and fractional reserve lending to fuel growth, has their head firmly planted up their ****.

I predict plunging real salaries will widen the ratio even further exacerbating the fall in property by another order of magnitude.

st kilda up 14.8% for Sept08, see the graph bro

thankyou
robots

**** that is really aggravating, the way you keep saying that over and over again when it has already been established that this reading, 14.08% is NOT accurate or reflective of any reality, it is a volatile reading! So I issue you an ASF challenge robots, why don't you go get your house valued, see if you can even find a buyer AT ANY PRICE maybe, then come back and spout your 14.08%.

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

and where was the house Number? people today can get the same deal in suburbs across Melbourne

st kilda up 14.8% for Sept08, see the graph bro

thankyou
robots

Nice suburb on the GC currently about 8 to 10x median salary .... In Melboune you need to live in Gangland underbelly cops shoot you dead for holding a toothpick central for 3.5 houses .....


Is there a point to you quoting St Kilda 14.8 continuously ?

 

[robots]

hello,

you keep forgetting people also have a deposit, I know many dont have $ but some people do

oh, its my right to have prices have at this figure of 3.5x salary, thanks for confirming things are still travelling well on Gold Coast with prices still at 8-10x average salary

well done to those in St Kilda, 14.8% for Sept08 Quarter, awesome results for those putting in for society

another thread confirmed (ala Mythbusters)

thankyou
robots

 

[kincella]

quote from ..numbercruncher
................................................................................................
Despite the importance of dwelling assets to many Australians, there is no accurate and transparent body which provides historical price information about property to investors or home-owners. Unlike publicly traded companies (who generally trade on the ASX), price data regarding residential property is generally provided by real estate bodies, such as the Real Estate institute of Victoria or New South Wales.

As Crikey revealed recently, the accuracy of such data provided by real estate bodies is questionable, being produced and reported by real estate agents who themselves have a significant vested interest in disclosing minimal information and overly positive results
end quote
.....................................................................................................
and compared to the ASX....wearing two hats, a public listed company, and also the regulator of that same market........

to the other poster who disputes the 14.8% gain in st kilda.....

the CBA report shows a gain of 27% for the year....and 10% in the last 6 months....note CBA only uses home loans to compile these records....so if CBA is not the only lender...possibly more sales.....what benefit is it for CBA to misrepresent the figures.....in plenty of other suburbs australia wide, their reports show losses....
conspiracy theorists .....
http://pvg.webcentral.com.au/propertyValueGuideChart.asp

 

[kincella]

numbercruncher......it is robots signature which states the figure...he does not continually posts it........duuhh!

 

[tech/a]

Average wages so you can re do your calculations and actually have substance to your postings instead of plain waffle.

Click to enlarge