House prices to keep rising for years

[theasxgorilla]

And yeah... it is absolutely ludicrous that you pay 350k for something you can get in Southbank for 220-250. I mean... you'd be insane to buy that in Perth...

And now for the engineers approach of looking at a scenario from all number of different angles...wouldn't you have been insane not to have sold Perth at those prices? Had it really transformed so much, fundamentally, in such a short period of time?

 

[Passive]

Yes it has changed greatly. If you sell your home - then what?
Run the risk off a further run up - greater reentry costs. Selling some IPs was a good idea - allowed for consolidation.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Yes it has changed greatly. If you sell your home - then what?
Run the risk off a further run up - greater reentry costs. Selling some IPs was a good idea - allowed for consolidation.

My comment was in response to Chops comment about the relative price of apartments in Perth that he inferred were comparable to South Bank apartments in Melbourne. From that comparison I deduced that these were inner city, high-density, homogeneous and relatively newly developed. In my opinion they're the absolute worse place to be from a capital gains perspective when the market tanks.

Everyone else is in line to get their profit before you. From the original land owner to the architects to the developer to the tradespeople to the marketers to the companies that provided the decor. It's not my cup of tea.

 

[kincella]

gorilla, I dont know Perth, but have family who come to Melbourne and adore Melb compared to Perth. More for the high rise buildings and everything available 24/7

South Bank and the Docklands area are stunning places overlooking water....still not have been there, keep promising myself to go and have a look.
At the end of the day even though I am biased on Melbourne, believe it is a more vibrant place and employment and business opportunites abound....more opportunities on the east coast etc. Perth is well known as being the area where it is reliant on resources....but it's population is so small compared to Melb or Sydney.

I have to question what you can buy for 220 in that area, when I last looked a couple of months ago it was bottom prices of 550 to mid 2 million for Docklands, and 450,000 for South Bank.... he may have got mixed up with Melb city and studio apartments which is a very different market

here is a link which covers actual sales of units in the the Docklands, showing the 550,000 figures

http://pvg.webcentral.com.au/propertyValueGuideChart.asp

and Southbank
http://pvg.webcentral.com.au/propertyValueGuideChart.asp

I think the majority of us stick to investing in a known local area, we understand the demographics etc, compared to chasing movements in prices between cities. Anyway cashing in on the WA resources boom areas was a smart move for those that are that way inclined and can afford it....but big money involved in buying and selling realestate...most of us are happy to wear the ordinary ups and downs in our home cities.

 

[Passive]

Perth is not to be written off too quickly. Been here a while and seen its ups and downs but its not over red rover for a while. The beauty about this place is not to buy and hold at all costs. That now seems a bad policy even for the blue chips on the ASX. The resources sector will have its resurgence - that is a given - but money can be made here and the key is to buy at the bottom when no-one dares or is avoided by all and sundry. This is a state of excessess but as the population continues to grow and growing it is - it will even out over time. Still a vibrant state economically and real estate was on the nose b4 the crisis as it had shot up so much. Here it always pays to have more than your own house if you are to score from the fluctuations in price and you need to consolidate on the highs. True to say that you always do better in your own backyard.

My last visist to Melb left me under no illusion that within 10 -15 kms from the City it aint cheap at all by Perth standards.

 

[kincella]

l about St Kilda....spent a couple of hours down there yesterday....took the dog for walk on the beach....but the kiosks were not open and we were looking to snack....luckily Acland St was alive with several cafes and bakeries open....found a shady spot in the main street....and just sat there watching the crowds....(the dog watches other dogs)....
its more of a tourist place now....did not see any of the drunks and ferals I used to see years ago....
when I first moved to Melb...I could have bought a beautiful little one bedroom on the beach for about 150,000 lovely old grand 1930's building...but did not like the culture in the surrounds....

my my has it grown and beautified itself....I am only talking about right on the beach, I have not looked or am interested in anywhere else.....its gorgeous....probably way outside my budget.....
but it is only 5 minutes away...from where I live...but if I were younger I would be very interested in a beach front apartment

 

[Passive]

When I visited Melb last thought I would try and pick a bargain or two. Not that easy and the problem stems from some of the new stuff developers were building and hoping to sell to cashed up West Aussies. Most of these were believed to be Southbank but more places that were miles away from there! Our papers were filled with so called fancy apartments for sale in cheap Melbourne.

My sons mate was about to buy 2 off the plan and my son was trying to rope me in - no thanks -as stated earlier best place to do your dough.

One thing about Perths inner city stuff - small city - really large country town -lot have incredible views - near river - dream views - nearly new -absolutely magic and high rise totally underdeveloped.

Problem is that a lot of the views on this City come from kids who 5-7 years ago were paying $120 rent for 2 bdrm apartments, could buy a house for
for 200k within 20ks from city and still complained - hello the real world has caught up with them and those days are gone - its like us telling our kids 5c could buy a slab of chocolate and they roll their eyes - no different with this - they just missed the boat and few will make the needed sacrifices we all took as necessary.

 

[Passive]

Renovated 2 bedroom apartment on busy Melb road in Williamstown $350k.
By Perth standards for what you get in Perth its not cheap!

I will wait till that drops to 150 then I will buy and make you all look foolish. Would suggest that Perth is no different to most capital cities and now that the resources and especially easy money on stockmarket is gone a dose of reality is emerging for the Perth whingers. Funny how most claim they have made money on ASX - don't believe a word of it!

Most are young and can sit on their butts and quote reams of economic claptrap and then claim to be working - can't lose your Ausstudy that easily I suppose!

 

[kincella]

hey passive...lord elpus has come over...he is on the property forum on the other site...told him to join this site as well.....
this property investing is time consuming...until you find the right one....you are lucky in that your daughter is here to check out props for you and give you local knowledge....
I still think investing in your city or were you live..with your local knowledge beats trying to find the best deal australia wide.....nothing beats local knowledge...you just drive around and ask questions to separate fact from fiction.
cheers

 

[theasxgorilla]

gorilla, I dont know Perth, but have family who come to Melbourne and adore Melb compared to Perth. More for the high rise buildings and everything available 24/7

I don't know Perth in any amount of detail either, but I imagine it's a very nice place to live. If you're used to a big city like Melbourne or Sydney then I imagine you'd probably struggle. But some people prefer what the west has to offer. For friends of mine this has been the case and they've emigrated to Perth.

If I was considering it as a place to invest I'd still put it under the banner of highly speculative, and unfortunately you can't move it closer to anything either, which IMO is a negative impact on the immigration trump card (unless you're a South African).

The return of resources demand will revive Perth (even I can remember the 80s!) but then there is that in between period. Thankfully I think that the recent prosperity has made it a better place to live so even if the resource sector doesn't recover it's not going to go back to being the way it was. And there will always be a test match, some one-dayers and (hopefully) two football teams there...not to mention the fantastic beaches, nature and lifestyle friendly work-ethic.

For those wondering about Melbourne property prices, here is one next door to robots for $329,000...in the heart of St Kilda...and you get to keep your job

http://www.realestate.com.au

I think the majority of us stick to investing in a known local area, we understand the demographics etc, compared to chasing movements in prices between cities.

BTW, investing outside of where one lives doesn't need to involve chasing price moves. One can have several "known local areas" and be at the ready to pounce when opportunities arise.

 

[Monario]

My take on perth is its housing industry is about to be hit hard.

Surely it is only simple maths.

The resource sector over there is crumbling, all be it rather fast. The majority of home owners over there are somehow tied to W.A's huge mining industry, either directly or indirectly. With that said now that the boom has turned to bust and people are losing HIGHLY PAID jobs I am sure we are going to see a lot of people finding it hard to meet huge mortgage repayments.

One thing I found astounding about W.A. is the absolute rediculous prices in the small dust bowl mining towns... These areas are going to be hit so hard it scares me.

Another point to think about is the fact that immigration will also drop now that we have so many people out of work, companies dont need to look offshore for skilled labour anymore. Infact there are people already lobbying to have work visas cut.

 

[Passive]

Some sweeping statements there Monario. This economy is not tied in the majority to mining sector. As most were not direct beneficiaries of the boom , in fact got hurt by it , there are many industries and rural sector still going.

Reason means understanding this place on the ground and whilst it will not be as vibrant as b4 it is still in a growth phase. Beware of all the alarmist nonsense! Before the resources boom there was an economy and there is one after. Gas has not stopped production, BHP still expanding, many mines still going. Immigrants still coming in believe it or not. Family member granted visa last week - coming in with pots of dough - another house to be bought, another car, does not need to work, stimulates the economy - all depends on your take I guess!

There is a large govt sector still working.
There are still teachers, doctors, nurses , farmers, bankers, truckdrivers, lawnmowing contractors etc etc etc .

Many in the media writing sensationalist headlines find this all new -older ones remember that boom times are brief and usually so are tough economic times you just are more aware of them.

 

[robots]

hello,

this deflation thing going on is fantastic Explod, driving home last night picked up a washing machine 35% less than paid for a few years back, same model

will bang it in storage for a while until i need it, going to Harvey's joint today to see if the Bunk Bed's are being thrown out for crazy prices, awesome

have a great day

thankyou
robots

 

[juddy]

Funny how most claim they have made money on ASX - don't believe a word of it!

That is an astoundingly stupid and provocative statement to make on a sharemarket site.

I suspect there is more than a touch of envy in that.

Ask yourself why you (and a few of your mates) are on a share market site when there are so many dedicated property sites around.

(Apart from the fact you have all been banned from that other share market site.)

 

[kincella]

Hi Juddy, I am a friend of Passive and Lord elpus...are you insinuating we have all been banned ?

 

[kincella]

mistake in last post...only passive applicable...lord elpus not here

 

[Passive]

That is an astoundingly stupid and provocative statement to make on a sharemarket site.

I suspect there is more than a touch of envy in that.

Ask yourself why you (and a few of your mates) are on a share market site when there are so many dedicated property sites around.

(Apart from the fact you have all been banned from that other share market site.)

Juddy - envy just is not in my makeup - I have personally done a lot of investing in the sharemarket and will quite happily admit I have neither made or lost dough. Can't say that is true of many , if not the majority or have I been asleep whilst everyone is making 50% - I thought it was a drop of 50% - silly me!Yes my super has but the facts remain that the property bears are having a field day on the property bulls and blow me down I make a comment not very different to what is being said on the other side of the fence and its stupid and provocative, why is it that most of the protagonists are not able to buy homes, complain about the prices, will wait for them to come down - yes it is an assumption however I believe it is based on their personal lack of affordability. I stand to be corrected and don't mean to cause offence. Those who are trying to get in , and I might add I have helped many find a way in to get their primary home have a totally different mindset to what I see on these sites. If I am not mistaken this is a property thread anyway!

For the record I will be re-entering the sharemarket when appropriate as I have quite a penchant for it and believe it will come back soon, not quite yet. I too hope to learn from the experienced punters on these sites as I would have thought many would learn from our successes.There are obviously successful players on whose posters I await with bated breath. By the way I wish it were easier to get into owning your own home, lament the lack of direct govt involvment and what I experienced in my many years of oppossing a unjust regime being banned means diddly squat.

 

[chops_a_must]

why is it that most of the protagonists are not able to buy homes, complain about the prices, will wait for them to come down - yes it is an assumption however I believe it is based on their personal lack of affordability.

I think you will find, most of the property bears are either relatively young and or single.

Which makes other asset classes much much more attractive.

But it is also important as a driver of property price, because at the end of the day, they are the ones that would traditionally move into the home ownership bracket, and if they don't, it's a serious problem for the bulls.

 

[IFocus]

Some sweeping statements there Monario. This economy is not tied in the majority to mining sector. As most were not direct beneficiaries of the boom , in fact got hurt by it , there are many industries and rural sector still going.

Reason means understanding this place on the ground and whilst it will not be as vibrant as b4 it is still in a growth phase. Beware of all the alarmist nonsense! Before the resources boom there was an economy and there is one after. Gas has not stopped production, BHP still expanding, many mines still going. Immigrants still coming in believe it or not. Family member granted visa last week - coming in with pots of dough - another house to be bought, another car, does not need to work, stimulates the economy - all depends on your take I guess!

There is a large govt sector still working.
There are still teachers, doctors, nurses , farmers, bankers, truckdrivers, lawnmowing contractors etc etc etc .

Many in the media writing sensationalist headlines find this all new -older ones remember that boom times are brief and usually so are tough economic times you just are more aware of them.

A couple of things, WA has a number of speeds in its economy hence some see no problems while others are worried.

Start with housing, the last 5 years of price rise's are unprecedented here in WA we have never ever that's never had a average housing price up there with Sydney that cannot be sustained.

Don't be surprised if house prices fall at an unprecedented rate, not saying they will but there are some good reasons why they could.

I have many friends through out the mining and manufacturing sectors here in the West many at management levels, there are many jobs currently swinging in the balance this is a fact not rumor, not media.

As all ways I guess we will have to wait and see

 

[kincella]

A bit of tongue in cheek here but.....

I think we can blame the boomers for this mess...going to tree change and sea change places...after selling off their city props for an average 600-800k's, then buying up in remote places for a third to half that amount (driving up prices to ridiculous levels) and left with all that spare cash.....or worse still then buying huge caravans and travelling to remote places...
I only like Melb....but look at the prices for Brisbane, Darwin and Hobart for goodness sake...or worse Canberra...or Perth.....(for passive hehe)

in my opinion they are all 'godforsaken' places....mostly only habitable because even native animals departed them........except Darwin...the crocs have come back and wandering around the town.....the big Panthers are coming into town somewhere near the Blue Mountains.......

I love Melbourne city only...I dislike the bush, the country etc....
I could not imagine living anywhere else in the world...but thats me....
**Do not be offended.....just having a joke....rather bored with all this spare time on my hands....