House prices to keep rising for years

[chops_a_must]

The mining industry is not actually the only industry.

Like I said, oil and gas in WA is in for some real pain starting next year.

Much like the Santos project now delayed indefinitely, these projects will be publicly announced as cancelled/ delayed en masse rather soon. Which is consistent with the noises I'm hearing from people in the industry.

And of course, once all these engineers who are earning massive 6 figure salaries become aware of the precariousness of their jobs in this field, they aint going to buy, that is for sure. Why would they?

 

[chops_a_must]

So what were the residential mortgage default rates during 1991-1992 when unemployment climbed to 10%? And what happened to median house prices during this same period?

Beej

Wouldn't have a clue about what happened outside of Perth at that time, but between 87-92 a hell of a lot of people went bankrupt in property, a whole heap was available for a long time below replacement cost, and the value was diminished due to massive inflation.

Property was completely rooted in the **** for about 10-15 years in general here because of it.

But the dynamics are hugely different. The world economy is having its biggest spasm since WWII, we have deflation, not inlation. So comparing this to 91-92 is 7 different days full of stupid.

 

[juddy]

Passive, Chops point of rising unemployment is some thing that worry's me, as yet we don't know how far that will go,

Yes we do. When they try to bring interest rates down to the point that you can pay the average mortgage with the dole, you know we are in trouble.

 

[robots]

Increased heaps in times of rising unemployment? You really don't have much idea do you?

hello,

lets just see what happens Juddy

past performance is no indicator of future performance is that how it goes

thankyou
robots

 

[nomore4s]

hello,

lets just see what happens Juddy

past performance is no indicator of future performance is that how it goes

thankyou
robots

rotflmao, except when it comes to property right? Because doesn't property always go up, never a bad time to by real estate?

 

[Temjin]

rotflmao, except when it comes to property right? Because doesn't property always go up, never a bad time to by real estate?

lol He mentioned it twice already. It's funny when he contradict himself with statements like that.

Of course he meant that property is AN exception to that rule. Past performance is always an indicator of future performance cos properties has never fall in prices, so it shouldn't in the future.

 

[robots]

hello,

you should go and re-read my posts,

find a post where i said property goes up for ever and ever at 10, 20, 30 or 100% pa?

for the 21st time I have said, I wouldnt have a clue what will happen,

get it through your thick skulls

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

you should go and re-read my posts,

find a post where i said property goes up for ever and ever at 10, 20, 30 or 100% pa?

for the 21st time I have said, I wouldnt have a clue what will happen,

get it through your thick skulls

thankyou
robots

Hello Robi,


Did we get up on wrong side of bed today ?


Thank-you

 

[robots]

hello,

its the mood swings from the bipolar depression that I have,

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

hello,

its the mood swings from the bipolar depression that I have,

thankyou
robots

Living in St Kilda you should be able to get a tablet for that ?

 

[robots]

Living in St Kilda you should be able to get a tablet for that ?

hello,

yes I go to a doctor at the cnr of carlisle st and greeves st in St Kilda,

he gave me a bottle of tabs with Viagra written on it, although it doesnt seem to be working to well for the depression

thankyou
robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Shifty little bugger on TV (channel nine) as I type offering 3.99pc home loans, cant get a customer.......

Whats up with that I wonder ?

Need 20pc deposit @@! is what .....


Realestate to boom forever ....

 

[So_Cynical]

Living in St Kilda you should be able to get a tablet for that ?

LOL im sure he can get lots of relief for that in St kilda.:

 

[Beej]

"Rising home loans could tip recovery":

THE number of home loans rose 1.3 per cent in October, to the highest level all year, and economists say it could signal the start of a recovery.

The number home loans for owner-occupied housing rose 1.3 per cent in October, to 48,299, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

The loans were worth a total of $17.7 billion, up 1.9 per cent in October, and above economists expectations of a 1.5 per cent increase.

....

The rise in housing finance commitments came after a 29 per cent fall during the previous 8 months.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,24779423-5013951,00.html

This data is quite interesting as there are posts earlier on this thread and the other thread tracking the number/value of residential home-loans over time, and predicting that the down trend would continue, thus following the same pattern as seen in the US and the UK that preceded the worse of the house price falls in those countries.

However, if in fact the decline in personal housing finance has bottomed and remains stable or grows slowly from here, then that could well be an indication our market here has in fact hit bottom already. The timing of the start of our relatively small house price decline compared to our interest rate cycle (spurred by the GFA), may well be the factor that differentiates our markets from the US/UK situation.

Couple this with the upwards trend for the proportion of FHBs entering the market, and things certainly start to look like they may be improving, or at the very least stabalising, as opposed to continuing to decline.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

Beej,


I love how the permabulls focus on year on year when it suits then month on month figures when it suits ......

Lets look at MoM and YoY to see how bad it really is ....

I suspect youve just had a temporary spike in finace figures from " pent up demand " FHBs using the new grANT ....

Falling home loans could tip destruction

....MoM............Yoy
NSW -2.24% -26.12%
VIC. 2.06% -20.39%
QLD. 2.57% -29.45%
SA.. 1.85% -20.39%
WA.. 5.06% -20.49%
NT.. 4.27% -23.00%
TAS 18.73% -12.62%
ACT. 8.78%. -9.11%
AUS. 1.33% -24.16%

Cheers

 

[gfresh]

One month of more positive data and it's a "recovery" according to Westpac.. Nobody in their right mind would call that a change of trend so early on, yet clearly they think so...

Of course lower rates are going to draw a few people into the market that have previously held off, plus a large number of refinancing too to take advantage of lower rates I'm sure. Rather weak really considering those two factors coming together, maybe the start of some FHB's in Oct as well.

BeeJ... might want to have a look at the Seasonally adjusted NSW figures .. -2.2%, and the overall trend series is still down -1% in October.

Plenty of upward blips in there (NSW shown), but the trend is still down until proven otherwise.

Jan-2007 1.7
Feb-2007 -0.9
Mar-2007 0.9
Apr-2007 7.7
May-2007 -4.4
Jun-2007 1.1
Jul-2007 -2.6
Aug-2007 0.4
Sep-2007 -3.2
Oct-2007 3.4
Nov-2007 2.3
Dec-2007 -0.3
Jan-2008 3.7
Feb-2008 -6.3
Mar-2008 -4.9
Apr-2008 -6.1
May-2008 -6.1
Jun-2008 -4.0
Jul-2008 -1.2
Aug-2008 -1.6
Sep-2008 -2.7
Oct-2008 -2.2

 

[robots]

hello,

those figures are fantastic g,

and as Numbercruncher indicates people need 20% deposit and since they dont have this deposit as many have no cash $, yes no money no crew

this is awesome, where's all the cash gone like with rents so cheap?

thankyou
robots

 

[Beej]

"Rate cuts, lower petrol prices boost consumer confidence"

Seems that as expected, all most Aussies care about are petrol prices and interest rates

Some choice quotes:

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment rose by 7.5 per cent in December to 92.0 index points, from 85.5 points in November.

...

More consumers also say now is the time to buy a property, with that part of the index up 39 per cnet from September.

"It is at the highest level since March 2002 when the housing boom was well established in Australia,'' he said.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24779204-462,00.html

Come on property bears tear this one down as well! Let no positive indicator go unpunished

Cheers,

Beej

 

[juddy]

Come on property bears tear this one down as well! Let no positive indicator go unpunished

Cheers,

Beej

"Property prices are down in general between 10 per cent and 20 per cent and I believe they could fall a further 5 per cent," says chief executive of McGrath Estate Agents in Sydney, John McGrath.

"Those who are predicting a 40 per cent decline are out to sell headlines rather than provide a realistic view on the likely asset revaluation."

He does not know whether the clouds will lift in 2009 or 2010 but says a lot of smart investors have been hoarding cash for when they sense a stable bottom in share and property markets.

The chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, Shane Oliver, expects overvaluation, low rental yields (though growing) and rising unemployment to more than offset the positives of falling interest rates, increased first home owner grants and housing undersupply.

"On balance, we see average house prices falling another 10 to 15 per cent over the year ahead," Oliver says.

"Housing finance is continuing to fall, new home sales are falling and weekly auction rates are running 20 to 30 percentage points below a year ago."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/money/property/how-low-can-they-go/2008/12/08/1228584741711.html

 

[robots]

hello,

some great opinions there Juddy

thankyou
robots