House prices to keep rising for years

[Beej]

I wonder how the Real Estate Stats. people do their maths? Do they just average every thing out or take in Bank fee's, entry & exit fees, repairs were share are easier to work out and a bit more precise.
After 30 yrs of buying and selling RE I have only made a profit of 3.5K on 2 houses and large profit on another due to the credit boom I assume the RE increase would only be a few % a yr. otherwise.

No wonder you don't like Real Estate! Sounds like you made some pretty poor investments! maybe you buy/sell to quickly?? You can't trade property like shares - it's a long term investment to see solid returns.

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

I sold a $1M property in Sydney just 4 weeks ago

So the media and RE institutes are making it all up ?

I find it odd that a permabull like yourself would sell and lock in a capital gain, not into tax free lines of credit ?

 

[Beej]

m8 just reporting it as its released, if you have better info you should take it up with these guys ?




http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/07/1228584616261.html?s_rid=smh:top5


Never know might be fabricated to stir you up ? give em a call ?

Ah I see - so the next bit after the one you quoted is:

"Figures for the September quarter revealed median property prices fell dramatically in some northern Brisbane suburbs, including a 27.6 per cent drop at Northgate. REIQ chairman Peter McGrath said substantially more sales in the lower end of the market in those suburbs had skewed the figures to make the situation appear worse than it actually was.

''In this quarter, there was a dramatic shift in volumes of sales and a dramatic shift to the lower end of the market,'' he said. ``We saw a dramatic slowdown in the $500,000-plus end.

''People saw great opportunities in the lower end of the market.''
About 80 per cent of house sales across the state were under $500,000, up 5 per cent from 75 per cent in the June quarter."

So actually what the article is saying is that for ONE SUBURB, QUARTERLY figures show a drop of NEARLY 30%! But a load of alarmist bull crap you post (and you know it). One suburbs figures for one quarter mean nothing - how many houses actually sold in that quarter? Porbably very low volume, and not representative of the suburb median as a whole. As I know you know, you have to look at aggregate stats to get any sort of accurate picture. What you have done is stated the equivelant of "Aussie share market down 98% in Oct!!" Due to say Babcock & Brown stock price alone....

So nice try, but we can see right through such a lame attempt at mis-representing the picture.

What is the actual year-over-year current Birsbane median house price change?

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Beej]

So the media and RE institutes are making it all up ?

I find it odd that a permabull like yourself would sell and lock in a capital gain, not into tax free lines of credit ?

I sold so I could upgrade my PPOR, which I have done, and done VERY nicely thanks very much! No capital gains tax to pay for me either thanks very much (on that transaction anyway).

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

Your waffling, just read the article, the head of the REIQ reckons its the most difficult market hes ever seen, but then again like you hes a **** talker.

 

[Beej]

So the media and RE institutes are making it all up ?

I find it odd that a permabull like yourself would sell and lock in a capital gain, not into tax free lines of credit ?

I thought the mainstream media was all a load of rubbish and we should read only kooky net blogs of "independent" people etc to get real information???

You like to quote the mainstream media when it suits though don't you?? unfortuneatly I haven't been able to read the article you refer to as your link didn't work, so can't comment further on it.

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

I sold so I could upgrade my PPOR, which I have done, and done VERY nicely thanks very much! No capital gains tax to pay for me either thanks very much (on that transaction anyway).

Beej

Oh so your one of those spruikers talking it up and selling at the same time @!

Is your last name Rivkin ? .....

 

[numbercruncher]

I thought the mainstream media was all a load of rubbish and we should read only kooky net blogs of "independent" people etc to get real information???

You like to quote the mainstream media when it suits though don't you?? unfortuneatly I haven't been able to read the article you refer to as your link didn't work, so can't comment further on it.

Beej

Odd they must of changed the addy ....


http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/07/1228584616261.html?s_rid=smh:top5

MEDIAN house prices in Brisbane have dropped nearly 30 per cent over the past three months, but the Real Estate Institute of Queensland has told homeowners not to panic.

 

[Beej]

According to article in the Brisbane times, Brisbane median property values have increased by up to a MASSIVE 45% in the Sept quarter!!!!!:

In contrast, values rose sharply in Brisbane's east over the last quarter, with Lota recording a rise of 44.4 per cent and Balmoral of 37.2 per cent.

Source: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/07/1228584616261.html?s_rid=smh:top5

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Beej]

Odd they must of changed the addy ....


http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/07/1228584616261.html?s_rid=smh:top5

No I could read that one - the Telegraph one about Sydney didn't work.

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

No I could read that one - the Telegraph one about Sydney didn't work.

Beej

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,27574,24762233-5006009,00.html


Seemss you have timed perfectly the sale of your Million dollar house Beej, which suburb was it?

 

[explod]

According to article in the Brisbane times, Brisbane median property values have increased by up to a MASSIVE 45% in the Sept quarter!!!!!:



Source: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/12/07/1228584616261.html?s_rid=smh:top5

Cheers,

Beej

Love to know the occupation of the person who wrote that.

There are variations abounding at the moment. Interesting, papers here in Vic. focus only on small part of top end and some bottom end. Keep away from those parts looking crook.

At least we can all surely say, it was not like this, this time last year and I believe it will not be like now this time this year. But just opinion and hunch based on current trend from my view.

 

[Beej]

Love to know the occupation of the person who wrote that.

There are variations abounding at the moment. Interesting, papers here in Vic. focus only on small part of top end and some bottom end. Keep away from those parts looking crook.

At least we can all surely say, it was not like this, this time last year and I believe it will not be like now this time this year. But just opinion and hunch based on current trend from my view.

Explod - that post was very tongue in cheek A few posts back the EXACT same article was posted by Numbercruncher highlighting this quote "MEDIAN house prices in Brisbane have dropped nearly 30 per cent over the past three months". I was just trying to show how that quote was being shamefully mis-represented and given out of context.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

Does seem it may of been a little misleading ..... youve still got the head of the REIQ in that article saying hes never seen anything like it ..... usual blah blah I guess ...


Certain suburbs ...... If the top end collapses (seems it is) it could drag the Median down rather rapidly ...

 

[chops_a_must]

2 very good reasons:

1) Leverage - you can leverage 80/90% - even 100% easily into property (if you want to and hopefully the cash-flow numbers stack up, but that's another discussion), making the actual return on your money far greater. Only the bravest would ever leverage to this extent into shares. PS - there is a lot of property out there RIGHT NOW that can provide positive return from day 1 - you just have to remove your blinkers and actually go and check the market out!

You really aren't that bright are you?

I can leverage my shares 70%+ in my margin loan account if I want. I can buy CFD's on 95%+ margin. Why would I do that? I wouldn't leverage anything like that. I can also leverage options at more than 100% by the way...

I am yet to see any property in Perth that is able to provide a positive return from day one at this stage. And it will be like that for some time as far as I can tell.

2) Risk - I am laughing my head off at your statement re "8% yield from shares SAFELY"!! All the guys like you here are predicting economic collapse, doom and gloom, and a share market that could fall much further yet as it did in the GD!! The risk is still far greater. And what's more you argue shares are a better investment? Yet your reasons for a house price collapse require such economic upheavel that it would also have to result in further share market collapses as well? Hoisted on your own pertard there!

And this is why you aren't that bright.

That comment was not directed and said in regards to stocks being safe. Passive said that a recovering stock market was good for property. The point I made was that shares yielding >8% in a recovering market were well and truly more safe than property, which in general, is making a negative yield at the moment, and a better investment.

Nowhere did I say that stocks were safer than property AT THIS TIME.

But... MTS... you know... close to 6% yield, selling staple goods, increasing margins and market share, would be far far far better and safer than property right now for anyone really. And because you property bears are so addicted to it, you can add leverage as well.

 

[chops_a_must]

You obviously enjoy wallowing in your well researched misery.

Yes, those "educated idiots" will get you everytime.

And also, thanks for cracking me up, and other posters with that sentence.

Pulling apart my points sentence by sentence must make you feel a little smug.

Asking questions and pulling apart arguments is just what I do for fun, and what I'm good at.

Try and make sense of what is being said rather than trying to be a clever richard.

Oh the irony.

Please stick to facts, it's what I have done. And if you can't argue with them, then you need to change your argument, and not get defensive. Oh yeah, and I'm not sure how calling me a dick after you just got pantsed in this debate, really helps your cause.

I live in WA and it is far from being on the skids as you suggest. You may need to toughen up a little as things don't always run smoothly but that does not mean the end is nigh!

It's not what I hear and am experiencing.

Personally, I am not renewing a lease on my workplace. The last 3 months have been close to the worst on record for me since I started working for myself.

I speak to people in civil construction, oil and gas engineering and real estate on a very regular basis.

The dad also audits mine sites and divisions of the mining industry for a living, so I am able to find out a lot of stuff that happens before the public knows. It's how I knew MGX and FMG were tearing up contracts left right and centre, before it was announced.

The oil and gas sector has basically ceased ALL design work, and early next year, we will start to see an enormous amount of pain from this sector.

Get out there and be proactive and learn from the xperienced players therein lies the essence of humility and growth. Practice makes perfect not just theory.

I'm not sure it's me that needs to get out there.

I pick the brains of all the experienced "players" I come across, and what I am hearing is shocking. But you shouldn't need me to tell you that. The record house price falls in WA should have already done that for you. But if you can't get the message from that, you are just deluded.

Better than being proactive, I am ahead of the curve. Perhaps you should try it some time.

 

[Passive]

Hey Beej

Somehow someone comments prices have plunged in real estate. So one or two people selling in distress make a market. I would challenge most bears to go out and hunt for a house and see if it is that much a bargain territory. The reality is that to gauge property like you do shares discounts size of home, quality of home , appeal, maintained condition - if houses drop in price I am sure everyone in the street will run out and sell. Then what? Really out of touch with reality. Also most experienced property investors buy at the low, and like many of us have been shedding into the boom - this all or nothing dumbing down of property investors is both startling and naiive.

Comment was made earlier on - as a by thought - that Bernancke can't peg the US currency - he has done just that - it should be worthless but de facto he is achieving some startling results. Dollar is actually worthless in peoples perception and its mind blowing how its held its own.

 

[chops_a_must]

Comment was made earlier on - as a by thought - that Bernancke can't peg the US currency - he has done just that - it should be worthless but de facto he is achieving some startling results. Dollar is actually worthless in peoples perception and its mind blowing how its held its own.

O RLY!!!

Care to post a chart of the dollar index and the gold chart by any chance?

 

[Pager]

Which suburb do you live in ?

Eastwood in Sydney, don't know what the official figures say about prices in this area but so far this year 3 houses in the street i live in have come up for sale, all sold quickly, the most recent which was very similar to my own home was in November and according to the agent not far off the asking price which was higher than what i had my home valued at about 18 months ago.

I don't invest in property but does seem to me that many whom took a cautious stance when this credit crisis blew up may well be coming off the fence with the interest rate cuts, it also looks to me that many people have become numb to the daily newspaper headlines of financial crisis as in there everyday lives they arnt seeing it, if anything they have more money in there pockets thanks to the cuts, again i can only comment from observation and from talking to people i know.

Maybe rates should have been left higher as a little pain may have been a better medicine than huge rate cuts, if the doomsayers are right then maybe a whole load of people who are now starting to think "What Criss" will be severely burnt in the next few years, although again from observation the experts are no better than 50/50 with what will actually happen.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Maybe rates should have been left higher as a little pain may have been a better medicine than huge rate cuts, if the doomsayers are right then maybe a whole load of people who are now starting to think "What Crisis" will be severely burnt in the next few years, although again from observation the experts are no better than 50/50 with what will actually happen.

Very good, the investment opportunities are jumping out of the trees everywhere.Listed company share prices decimated and lowering bank interest rates.Job security being the most worrisome aspect.

Cant help but thinking dollar cost averaging would be a potent investment strategy from now on.