House prices to keep rising for years

[robots]

hello,

explod, great of you to bring up gold,

look at the thread about gold and you will get nothing but encouragement for all on when to buy/sell or whatever else, pats on the back all round

but oh no, not the property thread's

so begs the question why the angst?

thankyou

robots

 

[wayneL]

hello,

yeah but why get stuck into people because they make money with property, oviously it annoys people,

you get labelled perma-bull, spruiker, real estate agent for only holding a bit of property and making some $,

I hold shares and have missed out on $ by not being in the resources (except for some LGL) but dont carry on like everything has to crash

thankyou

robots

This sort of argument along with incessant ramping is total nonsense. Ludicrous straw man arguments. Trolling really.

Of course we all want to be right but it does not happen.

Aussie Stock Forums is basically about investing, full stop. That is my only real interest in it also, fun well taking the mickey out of those that wear their hearts on a sleave can be akin to pulling wings off flys.

I have no overall preferences between investment vehicles but I do have preference to vehicles in thier time on the financial cycle. It is best to be on the horse that is in front. We cant' do that at the races but we can do that with investments and those that do are the winners.

Property has been fantastic since I started in it in 1968. Resources,Banks..etc(what about the run up for CBA) all have had their sunshine. At the moment for me I see incredible financial problems around the globe and with its onset noticed a few years ago that gold looked like the best vehicle. Since 2001 it has come from US$260 to 900 an ounce and on an inflation adjusted basis compared to the 1980 spike should be over 2000.

I will be back to property again when it looks to be the best vehicle. So rather than be concerned about individual preferences lets just be focused on the facts for good investments.

On the other hand, this sort of argument makes for interesting discussion. Something someone can read, take away the points and use to make a decision, one way or the other.

Let's keep it at this level, bull, bear, or somewhere in the middle.

 

[robots]

hello,

i am just the messenger

thankyou

robots

 

[moses]

Well I'm interested in the discussion because I like to see the sentiment.

As it happens I've got to decide now whether to sell an approved but as yet undeveloped rural-residential subdivision to reduce my debts, or hang on for grim death and follow it through for a greater profit in the end. I don't want a fire sale, nor do I want to wait 5 years before selling.

I remember 20 years ago when interest rates and house prices were skyrocketing there was a move out to the country for cheaper housing; people found that they could sell their property in Sydney with sufficient profit to buy in the country and be completely free of debt. Needless to say prices rose dramatically in the country as a result, albeit from a low base.

A chap I know made his fortune by buying cheap country dumps; for a while we all thought he was mad, but then things changed and in the space of a year and a coat of paint they pretty well doubled in price. As Tech/A says, the important thing seems to be to DO SOMETHING as doing nothing ensures nothing happens.

 

[MRC & Co]

Unfortunately I think property investments are a thing of the past and have been touting this for a while now.

Wasnt there a change recently in laws making it harder for superannuation to be invested in property?

Just looking at the very basics here, income/house price ratios are just rediculous, no other words to describe it.

The Government, both Federal and State are writing policy to slowly bring these two back together without causing political controversy with a fall in nominal house prices. Therefore, decrease real house prices, bring back income/house price ratios towards historical averages and try not to loose votes while doing it.

Easier said than done, but the writing looks on the wall.

 

[moses]

To my mind the main factor popping the property bubble was the lifting of the tax threshholds, which wiped out the zero cost of investing for most mum and dad investors. Clever move really; politically popular to cut tax, and pop the bubble at the same time without anyone noticing.

Which is probably why I've stopped buying rental properties and am looking more for development opportunities.

 

[tech/a]

Wasnt there a change recently in laws making it harder for superannuation to be invested in property?

The exact opposite is the case.

Which is probably why I've stopped buying rental properties and am looking more for development opportunities.

Good idea,you can of course have both keep one freehold or near to it creating a passive income.

 

[theasxgorilla]

To my mind the main factor popping the property bubble was the lifting of the tax threshholds, which wiped out the zero cost of investing for most mum and dad investors. Clever move really; politically popular to cut tax, and pop the bubble at the same time without anyone noticing.

It was a smart move. And owner occupiers moved in, with their increased levels of disposible income to bouy and eventually bring further breakouts in prices. Rental stocks were reduced as many investors who miss-timed the market peak in '02 sold into this strength, thinking it was a sucker rally, but it wasn't. And now between higher prices, higher interest rates, and higher inflation many are much nearer their tap-out point than they were 12 months ago.

ASX.G

 

[robots]

hello,

yes yes, great day today in melbourne 34 degree's

saw a couple of boards up as i pedalled around the streets all is looking rosy still even with the credit crunch hysteria in full swing

people will be attracted to the "genuine" yield as life rolls on

anybody know what has happened to Tom R as havent heard from him for a few days now

thankyou

robots

 

[explod]

hello,

yes yes, great day today in melbourne 34 degree's

saw a couple of boards up as i pedalled around the streets all is looking rosy still even with the credit crunch hysteria in full swing

people will be attracted to the "genuine" yield as life rolls on

anybody know what has happened to Tom R as havent heard from him for a few days now

thankyou

robots

Tom has probably got tired of trying to discuss a subject with someone who is entirely inflexible.

The Aussie Stock Forums in my view is about testing many and varied ideas on investing. Solid investing is about identifying what is the safest, best and highest yield and growth available.

There have been some good gains in property over the last few years and in some places some spectacular gains. Those of us who want to stay ahead of the pack could not care less about the figures of the last year or two, we want to know where it is all heading right now, today. And you know what, apart from a few isolated areas, property is on the nose, it is going down.

Robots.. I would like you to give me some provable figures on a state wide (state for state basis) of sales in the last few weeks that say otherwise.

I would also like to hear from you the economic (not the sentimental) reason why property is a good investment at the moment.

 

[robots]

hello,

always like these exercises from you explod,

but explod if you read my posts you will notice I totally "admit to not knowing" what is going to happen in the future,

and this has been my stance for a long time,

i have just presented the facts from my time going to auctions in the inner bayside area's for over 18mths and even this coming weekend,

multiple bidders, higher prices being achieved

and no RE is not on the nose, far from it

i am not sure what you mean by "economic reason for property to be good investment"

thankyou

robots

 

[BSD]

Any word on how the 1000 auctions in Melbourne went over the weekend?

Only 50% more than normal.


Buyers shrugging off the expectation of 100bps rise in rates I assume?

 

[robots]

hello,

yes enormous no. coming up in next few weeks

i think the clearance rates will stay around 72-73%,

last weekend was 73% on about 500 auctions,

there is a lot of "stock" to choose from and a bit of cat and mouse will go on on auction day probably,

a couple on "average" wage and reasonable deposit will still be in the market

the wanted RE will get snapped up

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

i am not sure what you mean by "economic reason for property to be good investment"

Pffft ....


Demand exceeding supply, running out of land, massive immigration, rising wages, falling interest rates, growing exports, easily available credit, booming world economy etc etc etc !

 

[tech/a]

I would also like to hear from you the economic (not the sentimental) reason why property is a good investment at the moment.

People are just reading and applying what they wish to-----relative to their view.
Evidence abounds for very real opportunities for those seriously involved in creative business in R/E.
Most here look at Property like they do the stock market.Longterm buy and hold.

 

[Tom Ronalds]

Once again, I don't understand why we would we talk about Irish property and purposely not focus on Dublin. Why bother with analysis of their Hicksvilles? Remember, this is still a country that many inhabitants would leave for somewhere warmer, and happier, and with a better standard of living in the blink of an eye. Those areas are more affordable for a very good reason. Compare this with Australia. We're number 3 on the United Nations Human Development Index. You still get more for less here.'

The answer to your question is fairly simple: There really are hardly any areas in Australia (outside of some truly outback places) where prices can be classed as low.

The other weekend I want mountain bike riding in Irvinebank, which is a ghost of a mining town about 50 kilometres - partly on dirt road - from Atherton in the Tablelands above Cairns.

Irvinebank used to be a thriving tin mining community early in the 20th century. Now there is just a little pub there and the population is about 30 people.

I saw a property for sale there - an old Queenslander-type house, from the sight of it uninhabitable, on a 900 square meter block. Incidentally, some hours later, I saw it in a real estate agent's window in Herberton, the closest town of any size about 30 km away. The asking price was $365,000!

If these kind of prices are being asked for properties at the back of Woop-Woop, you may be getting the idea of why the nationwide median house price here is way into the stratosphere, and a lot higher than the one in Ireland.

 

[robots]

hello,

great of you to highlight those items NC,

i think they are all irrelevant

thankyou

robots

 

[wayneL]

People are just reading and applying what they wish to-----relative to their view.
Evidence abounds for very real opportunities for those seriously involved in creative business in R/E.
Most here look at Property like they do the stock market.Longterm buy and hold.

Exactly as most people should. Imagine if every investor became a developer?

The truth is, not many have the desire, time, skills or contacts to be a property developer. You get paid well because not everybody can, or wants do it.

I can tell you that I would rather stick needles in my eyes.

But I can make money in something else that you can't. Therefore, it's buy (at the right price) and hold for me.

Ain't nuttin' wrong with that and the time for that will return at some point.

 

[Tom Ronalds]

I agree as well.

This is why I admire Tom Ronald for coming into this thread and attempt to present his view in an unbiased way. Presenting facts on the current economic and real estate market situation should be encouraged at every way.

Thank you. I certainly do not expect to change anyone's mind and I have no personal barrow to push on this. When I saw the topic title while accidentally stumbling across ASF, I couldn't resist - had to register and put forward some of my first-hand experiences I hear from people I deal with every day.

To Tom Ronald,

We are all thankful for your participation in this thread. Your efforts in presenting the facts will definitely be useful for future references. I am sure that someone would seriously consider the information / argument you have given and re-evaluate their investment portfolio as a result of it. I admire your knowledge so far in this particular topic.

As I said - I work in the financial services industry. I'm not here in any official capacity - which is not allowed anyway - and I definitely am not here to in some way solicit business.

But there is so much disinformation out there, particularly when it comes to property, it's frightening. If some basic facts can at least make people a little more careful before they commit to what generally amounts to a very major investment, then I'm happy.

Cheers,

Tom R.

 

[tech/a]

Wayne.

Plenty under $300k here.

http://www.myhome.com.au/buy/sa/ade...93:6wPgodB6B3YAABrBgL0AAAAH:20080219095844#/1

Suburb over from me.
40 mins from the city.
Within 500 meters of the beach.
Dont tell me these are stupid prices!
Bloody bargains no wonder those in WA and NSW are buying up here!

Where have you bloody well been!

OH look under Seaford

Check out the 5 bedroom (Last one on the list) Backs on to Esplanade and is $325K!!!!!!!