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Hottest January Ever

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Smurf1976 said:
Almost 35 degrees again today in Hobart.

In a "normal" summer, even one day that hot would be considered newsworthy. It certainly was when I was a child, and proper hot days were quite an event because they just weren't common (and of course nobody had air-conditioners then either).

Anyway, once again there are fires and this one is in the Hobart suburban area about 1km from my house. The fire is on the Eastern Shore but smoke and a few flames are visible from the city center across the river.

The Fire Service is attending of course, but there's only so much they can do so it really depends on what the wind does now. Worst case if the wind turns Easterly then that will push the fire straight into residential areas. Let's hope not.

It's cooling down tomorrow but then back up again in a few days' time. What we really need is some rain....
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Smurf hang in there and all the best. I can see the fire clearly from my place at the top of Lenah Valley and have been watching it all afternoon. It seems to have broken over the ridge and heading down the Derwent Side. The whole hill is aglow now. Fingers crossed for everyone . The forecast ahead is not good either the BOM guy on the radio said expect about 37 sometime next week , I don't know how much more of this we can take before we see any rain. I see that the North Island of New Zealand has now also been declared a drought area , second lowest rain fall on record .
All the best , keep us posted.
 
Ijustnewit said:
Smurf hang in there and all the best. I can see the fire clearly from my place at the top of Lenah Valley and have been watching it all afternoon. It seems to have broken over the ridge and heading down the Derwent Side. The whole hill is aglow now.
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Yep, it's on the city side of the ridge now and I can see flames from my kitchen window. I'm at Geilston Bay pretty much straight in line between the fire and the river at the moment.

On the good side, the wind is now blowing gently from the West which is pushing the fire back onto already burnt areas and away from me. The downside of that, is that if it goes too far then it will end up pushing the fire toward Cambridge and to my understanding that's what the fire brigade are worried about.

For the non-Hobart people reading this, all the locations mentioned here are within about 10km of the Hobart CBD. The fire is on the Eastern Shore, north of the Tasman Bridge.

This picture from the Mercury newspaper illustrates the situation. Original article is here. http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/03/06/373963_todays-news.html
 

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Sdajii said:
I'm not saying that there is no pollution problem or we don't need to worry about anything, but breaking all these records is statistically not meaningful. If you have no concept of statistics it might seem related, and I'm sure few of you will be able to grasp this and many will think me mad, but it's not valid evidence to show anything interesting is happening.


Worrying about it will just cause me to be worried and won't help. Last time I checked, the human population was increasing, they're going to consume whether I'm worried or not. You can't change basic human nature. Human nature won't allow people to change and stop chugging resources. If the alarmist hysterics are right, well, we're screwed and nothing can be done about it. If I wasn't convinced the world was inevitably screwed for other reasons which were coming well within the next 50 years, and I thought it was possible for us to turn the climate around, yep, I might be fussing over it.
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So its not statistically meaningful because there is nothing we can do about it so why worry :rolleyes:....WTF does that have to do with statistics and my understanding of them being meaningful or interesting.

Record high temperatures set in 6 states over a 90 day period, from latitude 42 to 16 and longitude 118 to 152 its unprecedented in recorded history, what's statistically uninteresting about that? they had to increase the temperature scale on the map FFS.
 
Look after yourself, Smurf.
Remember well the fires we had here, scary stuff.
 
So_Cynical said:
So its not statistically meaningful because there is nothing we can do about it so why worry :rolleyes:....WTF does that have to do with statistics and my understanding of them being meaningful or interesting.

Record high temperatures set in 6 states over a 90 day period, from latitude 42 to 16 and longitude 118 to 152 its unprecedented in recorded history, what's statistically uninteresting about that? they had to increase the temperature scale on the map FFS.
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That's not exactly what I'm saying and surely you're not actually interpreting it that way.

Okay, consider this. Assuming no climate change or problem, if we were to keep records for 500 years, when would you expect the hottest month on record to fall? How many times would you expect that record to be broken along the way?

Even if we have a serious problem, breaking all time records is not any sort of supportive evidence. That is supposed to happen, it's impossible for it not to happen. It's not the hottest month ever, it's just the hottest month in the last 200 years or so. There have been many hotter months even in the previous few hundred thousand years, including periods of thousands of years where months like this were normal and commonly exceeded. That's in recent planetary history and predates any human influence.

What we're doing is like starting readings in June then in December panicking because we keep getting the hottest day on record. Contrary to popular belief, the climate change over the last 200 years (since humans had any hope of influencing it) is unremarkable compared to normal, natural climate fluctuations. Maybe we've made it zig rather than zag at a different time, but at most that's it. All this nonsense we hear is so out of context and often blatantly untrue.
 
Sdajii said:
Even if we have a serious problem, breaking all time records is not any sort of supportive evidence. That is supposed to happen, it's impossible for it not to happen. It's not the hottest month ever, it's just the hottest month in the last 200 years or so. There have been many hotter months even in the previous few hundred thousand years, including periods of thousands of years where months like this were normal and commonly exceeded. That's in recent planetary history and predates any human influence.
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In heat a few years back, 47 degrees actually along Belcome Creek Mount Martha Victoria, the race of ring tailed possums who had evolved there over millions of years fell out of the trees and became extinct.

Now if one wants to do a bit of reading up there are recorded observations of many such instances around the world. Just depends I suppose if you want to accept that we may have a problem or that it will go away if we ignore it.

I spoke of this instance some years back on ASF (climate thread I would say) and could not be bothered going back to find it.

My real point is, How do you know it is not the hottest month ever?
 
For some good news it seems that a period of very low cloud (which surrounded the fire), no wind and a bit of drizzle has pretty much put the fire out.

It's still ridiculously warm in the northern end of Tas however, and I see that it's also very warm in SA and Vic too.:2twocents
 
Very hot here in Vic and no sign of a break.

A great pity that the discussion on this is based around global warming presumably caused by human activity, who knows , I dont trust the sectors that gain financially.

The whole scene may change in a year or two.
 
MrBurns said:
Very hot here in Vic and no sign of a break.

A great pity that the discussion on this is based around global warming presumably caused by human activity, who knows , I dont trust the sectors that gain financially.

The whole scene may change in a year or two.
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Exactly. Here in Central Qld, the past three summers have been very mild. Quite overcast, and particularly this year the rain has been extraordinary. Our kids wore a light jumper to school last week as the nights and mornings have been so fresh.

It may well be climate change but how much influence do we actually have over it? Bugger all I'd say.

Duckman
 
Yes, very hot in Mellbourne, at least they are enjoying their long weekend, Friday afternoon was bumper to bumper with caravans and boats, heading out of the city.
 
Duckman#72 said:
Exactly. Here in Central Qld, the past three summers have been very mild. Quite overcast, and particularly this year the rain has been extraordinary. Our kids wore a light jumper to school last week as the nights and mornings have been so fresh.

It may well be climate change but how much influence do we actually have over it? Bugger all I'd say.

Duckman
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Indeed. My tanks are full, my solar panels are all but idle, and I'm considering plans for an Ark. Enough is enough. At least, Duckman, you are physically equiped to deal with these conditions, if your username is valid;)
 
Tink said:
Yes, very hot in Mellbourne, at least they are enjoying their long weekend, Friday afternoon was bumper to bumper with caravans and boats, heading out of the city.
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I'm actually enjoying this as soon enough it will be dark and cold for months..........I hate that.
 
DocK said:
Indeed. My tanks are full, my solar panels are all but idle, and I'm considering plans for an Ark. Enough is enough. At least, Duckman, you are physically equiped to deal with these conditions, if your username is valid;)
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Too much water for this Duck. Particularly Australia Day. Our road was evacuated by SES but they couldn't get to us.

As for solar panels we got our 44c rebated system installed two weeks ago and we hit our highest klw today - 17.5! Yay.shouldn't complain as it will be hot and dry soon enough.

Duckman
 
Explod: those ringtailed possums weren't isolated for millions of years! It was just a population of a very common species, not even an isolated one. It's not like it will take ringtailed possums long to repopulate!

How do we know it hasn't been the hottest ever? Because we have clear records of it being hotter many times before. Massive extinctions due to climate change have occurred all over the world. One neat example is a group of grasshoppers and geckos I worked with during my honours research (it was a climate research project by the way). Populations of these animals became extinct between 100, 000 and 200, 000 years ago (very recent but just before our species existed), they were wiped out of most of their distribution because conditions were too hot and dry. The extinctions were so widespread that the remaining populations were isolated into about five populations in central and western Australia. The climate improved and a bit over 100, 000 years ago they were able to spread out and once again cover most of mainland Australia... which they still do today. When the populations met up again they had turned into different species, when they interbred the DNA went weird (I could be more technical but it's beyond the scope of the discussion) and the hybrids were unable to have sex but laid eggs which hatched into clones of themselves. Those clone lines still exist in the wild today, so they're clones of animals which existed before humans existed. There are absolutely countless pieces of very clear evidence that the world has had more extreme heat than presen, repeatedly for hundreds of millions of years. No climate scientist disputes it.
 
Smurf1976 said:
The heat is still going strong in Melbourne. http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1355306/melbourne-on-the-murray-as-city-bakes/?cs=12

And a record breaking run in March for Launceston. http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1354477/record-breaking-heat/?cs=95

Meanwhile the forecast for Adelaide today is 37 and it's 38 for tomorrow.
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And yet very pleasant here on the Gold Coast. Maximums around 26-28 for the last week although very humid due to showery weather. It seems the high temperatures in the southern states is not nationwide but alarmists seem to only cherry pick whatever suits their agenda seemingly to fleece working people of more of their hard earned for a tax that won't help drop the temperatures by much, if anything.

The highest March temperature was 36.3 in 1993 and we have averaged around 28 so far.
 
There three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

These days it seems much easier for people to believe lies than facts.
 
Sdajii said:
There three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

These days it seems much easier for people to believe lies than facts.
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Your post reminded me of Flannery's statements shown on the Bolt Report - drag the circle to the 19:50 mark the the "Spin of the Week":

 
12/03/2013 @3:07 PM . Currently 36.5 here in Hobart , record for March ( since written records of course ) is 37.3 . Not far to go now.
 

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