Hood's Hang Seng trade diary

[RobinHood]

I trade the Hang Seng 1-2 times week for the full session (on the simulator). This post will be my diary where my progress can be tracked, in the public eye.

I hope others can find some insight in my posts, but mostly that other traders may have some criticism or advice.

At the moment PnL is not my real focus, but learning the patterns and experimenting with 'working the market' (or what I can using a sim). So this will explain why I do so many trades in a day - to experiment and test new ideas.


19/01/2008: (261 trades in total)
go to bed at 6am, wake up 12:30AM before the opening.
Fire up NT - HHI (5min), KOSPI(5min), SGX Nikkei, and Hang Seng charts - 1min & 5 min.

I wish I could remember what I was thinking early in the session, but I don't like to write things down while I'm trading - it distracts me from remaining 100% focused on the action.

Until 1:16PM I was being chopped in a massive way. I trade up to 4 contracts and I was down about $18,000HKD. I remember the action on the DOM started to feel like a led weight wanting to pull price down at some point after 1:08PMish local time. I was in out, in out and being chopped out before this but from here till about 5:46PM local time I made back that $18,000HKD and more besides. But then I proceeded to lose it all in that uptrend I didn't think would continue. When I get out of tune with the market I get totally pissed off and angry @ the market and you will see this in my PnL when I have massive losses because I refuse to close the position when they go against me. This is not like EOD where you can just set a hard-stop - so its very easy to be unsure when to get out.

I'm finding that there are no patterns I can articulate - there are things I see over and over again but they haven't helped me make any money. That 24,26,27 lots in the book and sometimes hitting @ market and a few other little things. This is what I would actually look our for when I first began.

Mostly I will look at the depth and just have some instinct or another tell me it wants to go down or up. One example is we have a two bar consolidation after a downtrend (2minutes consolidation) and one would expect things to continue downward but then the DOM starts acting weirdly and the chart moves up only a little (not enough for a signal) but the DOM gains momentum and price suddenly shoots upward - I'm usually able to reverse my short to catch a large chunk of such moves.


I also have found that I can get in tune with the market in a ridiculous way at some period and not at others. I'll post today's PnL chart to illustrate. (See attachment). Then I will give it all back in periods I'm not in tune with and totally misread (seeing patterns which aren't there maybe).

I plan on going live by July using the MHI. I'm unable to do that at the moment.

 

[Broadway]

Hey RH,
Thx for sharing.
I trade the mhi but just as a hobby.
I try to look at the ES as well as asia to get hints for the MHI.
Todays morning down trend was hinted at in the ES. at around 1.20pm got this pro shorting the ES at market.
MHI/HSI slowly wiggled 400 points down after that.
There were other hints but this was the main one I saw.
What do you look for when you watch K200 and SGXNK? Leading-lagging situations or other things?
Good luck.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I wouldn't look at the MHI DOM, Its the big boy that moves the HSI/MHI with an arb bot flicking around the mini like hell.

In fact I would practise on sim with the HSI. Forget the mini for signals.

 

[RobinHood]

Today's PnL chart..

pre-afternoon sessions was boring as hell. Not much movement, but still had a go with some muck trades. Going to work on tightening my losses and see how that goes.

There was alot of money to be made in the afternoon imo but I just miss alot of the big moves. Once I spot something after being wrong it is usually too late to join in unless we get a pullback of some sort (and even those I might sometime miss). I hope to spot more patterns and figure out how to integrate more limit orders into my trading (hsi spread kills).

Yes TH, I don't even look at MHI. but it is my plan just to use it when i first go live.

I look @ kospi and nikkei just because its asia and I want to see if there is any correlated movement. I will be more careful shorting if kospi is showing signs of strength which is pulling the Hang Seng..


I never bother watching ES. I don't see the point unless its euro session open or something --- and then might as well watch the DAX no?

who is gonna trade the ES with anything important in crazy hours when there are much more liquid markets... only arb bots maybe?

 

[Largesse]

you going to aggregate your results each day so you know whether you are winning or not?

 

[MRC & Co]

I'd have ES up Robin. It's movements can sometimes count for sure.

 

[RobinHood]

quick update before I go back to sleep..

I'm gonna try trade the morning sessions of Hang Seng and then catch some sleep before work, allowing me to trade around 4 days per week. 2 days not gonna cut it. I will only post those days I deem significant to my development.

Traded today. Decided to play around alot less and concentrate on staying green, I did - but I'm not gonna boast because it was a nice day.

1:03PM aus time was expecting a small blow-off after and continuation of downtrend which is what happens alot, but we continued up - this has happened before - but then we broke out and continued further upwards. Yet, based on the price in the DOM I was still as bearish as ever - so I ditched my 4 contracts and held only two and then once it reversed added the 2 back again. Still if It continued going upwards the loss would have been about 100ticks. This actually happened to me a couple of times later, where I was bullish/bearish and held through a price breakdown/breakout and continued holding when I was wrong and thought I wasn't. but it was never as strong a feeling (hence, smaller size) as it was then at 1:04PM. It is risky and I don't know weather its such a good idea live, but I'll keep playing. (I'll post the screenshot).

After some major profits I began treading water for a good while which got on my nerves, but then regained control and ended up at new highs for the day.



1: 55pm "my view is we bottomed for the day, back to highs by eod"

210pm "obviously bullbnear battle happening here, bears flowing trhey should win. same flowey action we had at the start of the day with the selling near the high pivot, 1's flowingby"

These notes are direct from my quick notepad (I write really fast so I won't miss any action - I plan to voice record soon). What I meant was I changed my mind by 2:10PM about the days direction, not long after, I changed it again back to bullish. I also noticed strong selling comes with a certain flow to it - not necessarily big size but it could be flowing in 1 lots (which is what happened earlier in the day when we were around 12838 level.

Good example of why its important to watch asia, BOJ rate decision had the Nikkei and Kospi undergo important repricing and breaking new levels BEFORE the Hang Seng.


I'm not going to post total profit as its irrelevant (I'm on a sim), as long as I'm green.

Goodnight and happy trading.

 

[Largesse]

Hi Robinhood,

Am interested in how you are going. Just a few Q's. Feel free to answer all or none.

what platform are you simming on?
What position sizing/risk-money management technique are you using?

You are clearly scalping, what are you using to decided entry and exit? VSA?

just trying to gain a better handle of whats happening and learn how to do this stuff like the 'pros' (futures trading that is)

thanks in advance

 

[RobinHood]

what platform are you simming on?

Ninja-Trader, data from IB.

What position sizing/risk-money management technique are you using?

It is a simulator, so there is no "position sizing" (I trade 1-4 lots, but its just to get used to scaling in/out) or risk management. The goal is to find and test my knowledge of market patterns. I may continue trading on a day where I feel I have no edge just to test ideas and get feedback - being down $30k is irrelevant.

You are clearly scalping, what are you using to decided entry and exit? VSA?

I don't know VSA. I've read a few T.A books and its all useless. I'm just coming up with my own ideas and testing them. Its not so much about entries/exits but more about patterns. I will have to work on my entry/exits for the patterns under live conditions, not a sim.

e.g. of my thinking during trading.
People are in this range, now I think based on what I'm seeing in the DOM someone will push us through this range to get the people puking. Stuff like that. Just watching DOM many hours and theorizing + testing.

Not saying T.A is useless but I think if you come from a specific method mindset you could be missing alot. Maybe your market and time-frame has huge profit opportunities with certain strategies normally considered unworkable - e.g. can you work yourself out of a losing position under certain conditions, as opposed to ditching it right away with "discipline"?

A helpful post on this process can be found here:
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad....er/2008/07/tht-day-trading-course-part-2.html

 

[tech/a]

being down $30k is irrelevant.

I don't know VSA. I've read a few T.A books and its all useless. I'm just coming up with my own ideas

Lost comes to mind.

 

[RobinHood]

Today's scatter PnL scatter chart:



Working on finding those consistent small winners and decreasing losses.

goodnight and happy trading

 

[BentRod]

Robin.....any more trades????

How you getting on?

 

[RobinHood]

I've been working 6 days a week past month and have now gone off on break. more trading. I don't trade the whole day most of the time, but I do try trade for some of the morning session.

Significant day for me was the 9th. I was not all there, but what I did trade went well.

I find size makes things alot easier. You don't actually know how long a move will last for and if you have size you can lock in some profits early, in case it reverses on you (as it often does). You can also catch the big moves by holding a few contracts which in the worst case will be scratched out.

I'm picking up alot more patterns - I don't even know exactly what it is I'm seeing because it happens so fast but I will often see a quick flurry of movement in the DOM and then buy or sell, and only a few seconds later the chart moves big. Nothing specific goes through my head, just a very strong feeling that this has happened before in a similar context and it went down/up.

One of my weaknesses has actually been trending days. Huge uptrends(2nd Feb is a good example) have totally destroyed me, something I'm now paying more attention to.

I am also really annoyed with the IB DOM/Data. I don't know if its a HKFE or IB problem. The movement on the HSI is faster than the speed at which IB is updating its DOM data. I'll get someone hit the bid for 20 lots and it will continue to move down rapidly, but it takes a while for that 20 to disappear. This is why you sometimes get the appearance of price going beyond lots sitting in bid/ask. It also can mean you get action within the bid/ask as there must have been something sitting in there which was hit or lifted but it was too fast and never showed up in the DOM - looks like someone is hitting/lifting a price level where nothing is sitting.


Here is PnL scatter from 9th + chart of what I traded. The scale makes it hard to see but FYI the biggest loss was 12ticks.


Oh also curious - those of you who scalp - what is your avg holding time?

 

[RobinHood]

looking for asia-pacific economic calendar and data.

"global" seems to mean including Japan/Aus only, but not Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore.

the best I've found is this:

http://forexdaily.org.ru/Dow_Jones/page.htm?id=416281


anyone know anywhere else where I can get this info?

 

[RobinHood]

Today was a rather unusual day. Something with using limit orders (where to place them) just clicked for me. In the past I've been using mostly market orders which very quickly eat into profits and increase losses due to the spread.

I see myself getting better at placing the limit orders by continually testing placement and getting feedback on this placement in the different HSI environments.

Here is the PnL chart. Nothing special profit wise (I only traded in 1 lots), but it was significant only due to using a large amount of limit orders (an improvement can be seen in more losses kept under 10 and more consistent profits). There is one huge outlier loss, but this was due to me having to leave the computer quickly, so I crossed it out.

 

[RobinHood]

I'm not sure if I'm improving or getting worse at the moment.

I've had really good days and many losing days. Mostly losing days. Now I'm finding that I don't have many good days but I'm not losing as much. I breakeven. Its frustrating as **** trading all day only to give it all back -- or to see the days range is 100-200 pts and only make 20 pts net.

I've readjusted my targets and goals. Right now I aim to reduce my trading to what I feel is certainty or high probability. 1 lots only with a goal of 200 points a day and a $600AUD day stop. This is for various reasons, one being helping me track what is going on over a longer-term period -- my trading has varied so much in style that I can't really get feedback on my trading for the past month, but just each day separately.

I'm trying to push my screentime more. 1 full-day a week and I'll wake up for parts of the session during day. I gave up recording the screen as it slows my computer too much.

I've been at this almost 2 months now. 1 day a week. Prop traders take 3-6 months to get profitable on the sim doing it full-time (5 days full-session). So multiply 3 months (ambitious) by 5, 15 months - and that is roughly how long it should take me but I aim to get it going much much sooner than that. We will see!

Here is today:
(-$800HKD Total).

 

[RobinHood]

entry for friday 27th

significant day only because its the first day I ended up green since introducing the daily stop.

the open usually kills me, high volatility and a bad read on the action means I get taken out quickly. Lots of orders going through on T&S but I find alot less on the DOM. Took me a while to get a read on the action, but I managed to hang on - and then crank out those winners.

I traded the morning session and caught a few min of the arvo session.
PnL: $6350HK before commissions
% profitable: 52.27%
avg win / avg loss: 1.49
avg time in market: 1.4min
30 long trades, 14 shorts.

 

[Naked shorts]

Any-more updates?

Also, it might be worth-while analyzing every single trade, and then categorize each one (i.e. "I entered this trade because of huge size on the bid" and then nickname that trade HSOB (huge size on bid)). Doing this will allow you to plot all the HSOB trades to figure out if they have any kind of expectancy. If they aren't any good, then adjust where you put your stops and TP's to enhance you expectancy (e.g. look back at all your HSOB trades and see how they would have turned out if you had tightened your SL by 1 tick), if its better, then adjust.

I learnt this from TH

 

[RobinHood]

Improving, nothing special or worth writing about. I will probably only update this once I go live.

Don't find time to write down anything at all. Sometimes I'll change my mind 5 times in one minute. When I start making some decent money I will upgrade my computer so I can video record the sessions.

The only time I write in my journal is when I've been taken out for the day and I'm free to sit back and watch.