HomeTrader

[tech/a]

Re: Home Trader

Anyone know the answer to this??

A combination.
Drop in commodities.
Drop in currencies (not just AUSD)
Drop in demand.
Increase in supply.

 

[julius]

Re: Home Trader

I'd strongly recommend reading the posts of Howard Bandy, who is a member of this forum. He is an expert on trading system development and has published a book on the subject. He posts under the username 'howardbandy'.

 

[aarbee]

Re: - Home Trader

That would be my first question. Until I get an answer that convinces me that they're able to make money (or at least not LOSE money) in this market then I would not part with $6000 of my hard-earned. And remember, $6000 is worth more than what it used it be...LCDs, and cars have gone down in price!

Anyone know the answer to this??

I have been a member of HomeTrader since 2005 and haven't for a moment regretted paying for the course. It's not a matter of whether "able to make money (or at least not LOSE money) in this market" but whether the education provided to you would give you a reasonable probability of making a success. The greatest emphasis in HT is on developing your own systems based on simple but effective technical basis and then mechanically trading them.

Their R&D provides good analysis of extant systems and those developed by them, in order that members can then develop their own and trade them. The backtesting regime used in HT is probably the best there is, which includes elimination of survivorship bias in the backtesting database prepared by HT. As for making money, the best system developed will lose me money if my head is not in the right place. HT provides absolutely excellent tools to develop systems and the rest is upto the individual trader.

As for $6,000 buying more LCDs, cars etc., education is an appreciating asset so I wouldn't quibble on the cost of same.

Cheers,
Raj

 

[TradeSim]

Re: - Home Trader

Their R&D provides good analysis of extant systems and those developed by them, in order that members can then develop their own and trade them. The backtesting regime used in HT is probably the best there is, which includes elimination of survivorship bias in the backtesting database prepared by HT. As for making money, the best system developed will lose me money if my head is not in the right place. HT provides absolutely excellent tools to develop systems and the rest is upto the individual trader.

We will be offering survivorship bias free back testing ability in the next release of TradeSim. Updates are free to registered users and as well the free trial will have this ability so there is no need to pay major $$ for that feature Also as far as system development goes people might do well to study John's "Tech Trader" system which has been extensively analysed and documented on Nick Radge's forum

 

[aarbee]

Re: Home Trader

That would be a great improvement in backtesting. However, with due respect, as good as TradeSim is for what it does, I reckon that in capable hands, Amibroker is a vastly superior product for backtesting. Used with appropriate database and using Signal ranking available in Amibroker, MonteCarlo testing becomes redundant and the backtesting accuracy improves vastly. This is just my opinion.

The seamless scanning, backtesting and optimisation available in Amibroker is to me a great aid in system development.

Cheers

 

[weird]

Re: Home Trader

Aarbee, I originally came from a Metastock background, and purchased Tradesim years ago to make up for its lack of real portfolio backtesting capabilities and also for the Monte Carlo and system analysis stats of Tradesim, especially the visual presentation.

I only later came to Amibroker. I use Amibroker now for all my system development, and agree that it is awesome product and it includes real portfolio backtesting ... and if you are also a wiz bang with the custom metric and portfolio backtester, and Excel you could probably easily produce additional wanted stats and also a Monte Carlo simulator, to analyze your given system if trading a portfolio or otherwise. Mind you there have been rumors for sometime that some Monte Carlo features might be added, and this will be a welcomed feature to already an excellent and versatile tool.

However, I believe the ability to output trades from Amibroker and pipe them into Tradesim is the best of both worlds (although having this product is due to my software transition).

I am not a big fan of single path ranking, as it does always really simulate the real trading environment, when it comes to actual orders being filled and your trading plan. Bring on as much possible variance that simulates a real trading environment ... and see if the system still holds up !

 

[shane5705]

Re: Home Trader

My first venture into the trading world was in 2004. After reading a number of "puff" promos about trading courses / seminars etc, which all seem to appear around this time of the year, ( New Year, time for a change etc ), I went to a Hometrader intro night.
Hometrader were the best of the bunch that I had been to. I signed on for the year and completed their course. They certainly provided me with a start ,however their course at that time was very shabby in a number of areas and too expensive. A little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing, and once I started researching deeper for myself, I soon realised that most of their content was of a "cut'n'paste" nature from other peoples work.
I would not have minded so much except that they charged an absolute premium and the course at that time did not even cover Support & Resistance!
The Brisbane trainers were active Traders and were very helpful with back-up support via e-mail etc. My advice: spend $600 or whatever they cost now on Guppy Books and CDs' and spend time learning at your own pace. Shane.

 

[TradeSim]

Re: Home Trader

That would be a great improvement in backtesting. However, with due respect, as good as TradeSim is for what it does, I reckon that in capable hands, Amibroker is a vastly superior product for backtesting. Used with appropriate database and using Signal ranking available in Amibroker, MonteCarlo testing becomes redundant and the backtesting accuracy improves vastly. This is just my opinion.

Given that signal ranking and random trade selection are mutually exclusive do you have any evidence to suggest that one trade selection type is unconditionally superior to the other ??

Also what criteria did you use to determine ranking and how did you determine it ?? Is this some sort of a formula that has been given to you and what evidence do you have to verify that it always results in an optimum selection of trades ??

And lastly why do you put so much faith in signal ranking as though it is a universal panacea for all trading systems ??

With Monte Carlo analysis I like to stress test my systems so I select worst case entry and exit ordering which means for a long system you enter in at the high of the day and exit at the low of the day and vice versa for a short system. Typically I will run a 20,000 run MC analysis over historical data particularly where there has been market corrections. What I'm trying to do is to use statistical analysis to show up any weaknesses in the system which is something you can't do if you force a particular trade sequence using some arbitrary signal ranking strategy

 

[aarbee]

Re: Home Trader

I soon realised that most of their content was of a "cut'n'paste" nature from other peoples work.
I would not have minded so much except that they charged an absolute premium and the course at that time did not even cover Support & Resistance!

Shane,
I joined in April 2005 and a year later I must admit, I had feelings similar to yours. However, in the last 1.5-2 years some very new stuff has been introduced. I haven't found all that stuff in books or on trading forums. NOt to say it is not out there. Just that I am happy paying for it to have it delivered to me in a concise form which fast tracks my progress drastically. I for one am time poor and would rather pay for good tuition and spend my available time working on trading psychology and on actual system development incorporating various concepts introduced by mentors who have done the research. I can then concentrate on concepts that interest me rather than re-invent the wheel. There is still a lot of work to be done, but in a focussed manner. I have read a lot of trading books, but without the foundation provided by HT or some equally efficient education system, I for one would not have learnt what I have. Maybe its just me, but books can't effectively substitute live face-to-face teaching.

As for support/resistance, it is still not taught in HT solely because it can't be effectively backtested for mechanical trading. I do believe that for most beginner traders, mechanical systems trading is the way to go and pattern based trading can be learnt as more experience is gained.

Cheers

 

[aarbee]

Re: Home Trader

Given that signal ranking and random trade selection are mutually exclusive do you have any evidence to suggest that one trade selection type is unconditionally superior to the other ??

No I can't offer you any evidence of unconditional superiority. I could attempt to illustrate my experience though. My Mean reversion system frequently gives upto 30 triggers on days of high volatility. If I place all 30 orders in the market, perhaps 2-3 will actually get executed. Thus, the system performance will have a very great variance as my system rules also state that I can place a maximum of 4 orders on any given day. To get a modicum of rationality in backtesting results, I can rank the 30 triggers by turnover or volatility etc and place only the top 4 orders in the market. I can backtest this very easily with AB by introducing PositionScore function. This makes the MC redundant. However, if MC was required, it can still be done in Excel with no need of the very very pricey TradeSim Enterprise edition. Moreover, in AB I can do the backtesting, optimisation etc. The icing on the cake is of course the automated Walk Forward Backtesting available in AB.
In more capable (programming) hands than mine, the custom metric features and capability to design the Objective function for backtesting etc are really powerful features.

Also what criteria did you use to determine ranking and how did you determine it ?? Is this some sort of a formula that has been given to you and what evidence do you have to verify that it always results in an optimum selection of trades ??

Among the factors that I use for ranking are Turnover, volatility, velocity or displacement. Yes there are formulae that can incorporate these into my backtesting with Amibroker. I wish I was clever enough to do it myself so I rely on some very clever people in HT who help me with it. The survivorship bias elimination protocol developed and provided by HT in my opinion is the very best there is. It gives a lot of confidence in backtesting. The optimisation function available in AB does a very efficient job in determining which signal ranking leads to the highest score vis a vis my objective function in backtesting results.

And lastly why do you put so much faith in signal ranking as though it is a universal panacea for all trading systems ??

I never said it is the universal panacea. I don't think there is one. As for faith, it has developed by working on both MS/TS and AB. Your belief could very well be different from mine and I wouldn't begrudge that.

Cheers

 

[TradeSim]

Re: Home Trader

This makes the MC redundant. However, if MC was required, it can still be done in Excel with no need of the very very pricey TradeSim Enterprise edition. Moreover, in AB I can do the backtesting, optimisation etc. The icing on the cake is of course the automated Walk Forward Backtesting available in AB.
In more capable (programming) hands than mine, the custom metric features and capability to design the Objective function for backtesting etc are really powerful features.

I'm curious to know how you would optimise a trading system with random trade selection ?? Which performance metric would you use because as soon as you introduce variance into the system there will not be one unique outcome ??

Yes I have seen MC done in Excel if you are willing to wait a week for the results. We have some users running 100,000 simulations on a 10,000 trade database which is no slouch. Regarding the price of TradeSim Enterprise you need to be fair and tell the whole story before you can compare it to your setup otherwise it is like comparing apples and oranges.

Firstly there is the HT entry fee which is typically 6K for starters. I have some users who have told me they have paid 10K or more in some cases. Then you have the code pack which is another $450 plus the cost of Amibroker and any of the backtests they run for you. That is a hell of a lot more than TradeSim Enterprise and Metastock together

Also if the setup you have was such a seamless interface why would you need to pay all of this money just to access it's functionality ?? A lot of the users of TradeSim are not that computer savvy and just want to focus on the aspect of system design and testing. This is why we have designed the interface to be relatively user friendly.

Like I said if you want to learn about system design why not take a look a John's Tech Trader system design which has evolved over a number of years

As for survivorship bias free backtesting we have designed in a seamless and transparent interface for people to use. They will have access to this in the next beta release and we welcome any feedback and suggestions to make it even better

 

[aarbee]

Re: Home Trader

I'm curious to know how you would optimise a trading system with random trade selection ?? Which performance metric would you use because as soon as you introduce variance into the system there will not be one unique outcome ??

That is the whole point of signal ranking; there is no longer random trade selection. There is indeed a unique outcome. I usually use Avg Annual Profit/Max DD as the custom metric for optimisation. However, I am in the process of developing my own objective function for optimisation. Pls refer to Howard Bandy's "Quantitative Trading Systems".

Firstly there is the HT entry fee which is typically 6K for starters. I have some users who have told me they have paid 10K or more in some cases. Then you have the code pack which is another $450 plus the cost of Amibroker and any of the backtests they run for you. That is a hell of a lot more than TradeSim Enterprise and Metastock together

I do not suggest that anyone should join HT just to substitute MS/TS. That would be absurd. I can only present my opinion. $450 for the code pack is the best money I have spent in learning to use effective backtesting. It has accelerated my learning curve exponentially. I have no problem whatsoever, paying to learn how to fish for myself, metaphorically speaking.

Also if the setup you have was such a seamless interface why would you need to pay all of this money just to access it's functionality ?? A lot of the users of TradeSim are not that computer savvy and just want to focus on the aspect of system design and testing. This is why we have designed the interface to be relatively user friendly.

The setup is very seamless, however, it does require a fair bit of knowledge of programming. I am willing to spend time in learning, especially with the help of clever people in HT. I agree the MS/TS is a much simpler proposition and eminently useful for those willing to live within the constraints.

I just realised (I am a bit slow here) that I am having a discussion with someone who has a very vested interest in the product being discussed, while I am just an average user willing to pay for services whether it's HT or MS or TS or AB.

FWIW, I have used Tradesim and find it to be an excellent product and relatively easy to use within certain limitations. AB on the other hand is totally programmable but has increased demands on the user vis a vis programming knowledge.

I think the discussion has meandered too wide off topic for this thread.

Cheers

 

[TradeSim]

Re: Home Trader

That is the whole point of signal ranking; there is no longer random trade selection. There is indeed a unique outcome. I usually use Avg Annual Profit/Max DD as the custom metric for optimisation. However, I am in the process of developing my own objective function for optimisation. Pls refer to Howard Bandy's "Quantitative Trading Systems".

Actually you have given me some good ideas I am in the process of implementing them. It's good to have the best of both worlds I suppose

The only criticism I would have is it is a bit of a leap of faith to rely on a single path back test as a good indicator of future performance. That's why I like to use as much statistical variance and stress testing as possible.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: - Home Trader

As for making money, the best system developed will lose me money if my head is not in the right place. HT provides absolutely excellent tools to develop systems and the rest is upto the individual trader.

Actually, part of it is up to the trader, and part of it is up the market conditions, hence my original question. Sounds like HT offer a range of different systems for budding new traders to go forth and develop off of. I see you've mentioned that you are working with a mean-reversion based system. What are some of the others types of trading strategies that HT offer "templates" for?

 

[aarbee]

Re: - Home Trader

What are some of the others types of trading strategies that HT offer "templates" for?

Following are some of the types of systems developed and taught in HomeTrader. The Oz markets are used though they have systems for the US market and are presently researching mods to the systems for other exchanges to incorporate the peculiarities of different markets.

Trending Following : Long, Short - Long, Medium, short term
Reversal systems
Mean Reversion : Long and Short
Rotational : Long and short trend systems.
Pairs Trading : These systems did not work out well and they are researching it further.
Rotational Mean Reversion : This is in the pipeline.

Strictly mechanical trading systems are used and encouraged.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Re: Home Trader

Strictly mechanical trading systems are used and encouraged.

Nothing wrong with that.
I think the steepest learning curve I found was/is during systems developement.
You learn a great deal about what doesnt work and why.
You soon learn why a system is likely to work.
And much much more.

 

[rahman]

Re: Home Trader

Just been to the intro seminar...it's only $4900 now...I can't see much value in that! heaps of free value out there if your willing to work and learn as opposed to paying these smart business people to show you the basics of CFD's

 

[G-reg]

Re: Home Trader

Bruce.

As you can see I have defined what I need from a trainer.
I also know that as I advance Nick will have been where I'm heading and be able to mentor in whatever field/area I need guidence and increased knowledge.

I have confidence and TRUST---I think you'll agree important in this faceless industry!---not to mention RESULTS!!

If I were you Id be inclined to gain a grounding and find what you NEED to know to help you in your trading THEN go and find a trainer/Mentor to hone that skill/s.

Why not give Nick a Call.
He is very easy to talk to and will help you get going.
Even private mail him.

Hi Tech,

Just nwe to the whole trading game and am going to attend a Hometrader seminar tomorrow night. I noticed with interest your mention of "Radge" and giving Nick a call.

Is this someone that I can talk to get some training - and if so how can I contact them/him?

 

[kam75]

Re: Home Trader

Just been to the intro seminar...it's only $4900 now...I can't see much value in that! heaps of free value out there if your willing to work and learn as opposed to paying these smart business people to show you the basics of CFD's

Nah, too much to pay up front! To hell with that.

 

[G-reg]

Re: Home Trader

Thanks for the prompt reply tech.

Have been to the site and will contact Nick