HLX - Helix Resources

[jtb]

Christ these small bot trades are really perplexing. This is someone who wants to accumulate but doesn't want to make it obvious and is trying to hold the price within range. Only thing is that the trades are so small it will take him for ever to get a decent parcel.

I don't know what it's all about. Very confused. Surely someone here must be able to explain the theory behind this. Might post a question in the general forum.

Hey Ab,

I wonder if the plan isn't to drown out the buys in noise created by the number of trades (ie total volume for the day divided by # of trades wouldn't attract anybodies interest as the average parcel is only a couple of thousand shares?).
Check out the course of trades and you'll see that the only buys of larger than 20k shares was at 30c and 29.5c.

As an interesting aside, I amended my outstanding buy in HLXO, from this morning, to take 275 of the 290 HLXO's that were @ 8.5c (I like round numbers) and was surprised to see my at-market purchase fail and then be replaced (further ahead in the queue) by a buy of 49,700?
After I cancelled my order the buy dropped back to 7.5c?

Intriguing to watch isn't it

 

[Jimminy]

Surely someone here must be able to explain the theory behind this. Might post a question in the general forum.

My theory - AMCI can buy less than 1m shares and they will hit the 19.9%.

They are behind the buying imo.

 

[jtb]

My theory - AMCI can buy less than 1m shares and they will hit the 19.9%.

They are behind the buying imo.

Hey J,

Certainly interesting watching the action lately, I see a funny little parcel closed the day off today so I wonder if thats indicative of anything?

Do you know much about AMCI ?

I wonder if their attention may run to some kind of script offer to mop up the junior partners?

Wicked MACD cross on the weekly chart and also a very long tailed hammer on the daily (for todays action) point to a resumption of the upward trend imo

27c Resistance hopefully cleared with strength

Love that sell side on the options too:

Go HLX

 

[Jimminy]

Hey J,
Do you know much about AMCI ?

I wonder if their attention may run to some kind of script offer to mop up the junior partners?

Don't know alot about AMCI - probably as much as you do.

In terms of takeover speculation - it certainly is AMCI who is likely to move on Aquila. Hopefully it will be at an attractive valuation when it occurs.

How they do it I don't particularly care. I'd say we may need to wait until HELIX' jorc is released.

The pre-feasibility report on API (AQA) out today suggests it we have nothing to worry about and simply need to be patient.

 

[Jimminy]

Hopefully it will be at an attractive valuation when it occurs.

At risk of talking to myself.

RHI
41 Million shares @ $6.80 = $279 mil MC
20% of 350MT @ 57% Fe = 40MT of Fe
EV = $7 Fe/T

Now if we only look @ a conservative >100 MT for Helix @ 55%Fe.

HLX
131 Million shares @ $0.29 = $38 mil MC
30% of 100MT @ 55% Fe = 16.5 MT of Fe
EV = $2.30 Fe/T

What is more interesting is that CUL has a market cap of $27.5m (based on 167m shares @ $.165) which is based on 80mt resources at 55%Fe (30% CUL).

Therefore based on these figures for Cullen, and the market cap for Helix, the market has baked in for Helix a 100mt resource to be announced during Q2 2008.

But the market has only valued CUL & HLX on a value of less than $2.50fe/t, as opposed to RHI at $7.

Based on a 100mt target (which I hope Kumina Creek) can clear up, the upside to this stock with positive results in the Q2 jorc due in the next few weeks could well be very positive indeed.

A stock to be patient with. 55% held by top 20.

 

[jtb]

At risk of talking to myself.

RHI
41 Million shares @ $6.80 = $279 mil MC
20% of 350MT @ 57% Fe = 40MT of Fe
EV = $7 Fe/T

Now if we only look @ a conservative >100 MT for Helix @ 55%Fe.

HLX
131 Million shares @ $0.29 = $38 mil MC
30% of 100MT @ 55% Fe = 16.5 MT of Fe
EV = $2.30 Fe/T

What is more interesting is that CUL has a market cap of $27.5m (based on 167m shares @ $.165) which is based on 80mt resources at 55%Fe (30% CUL).

Hey J,

CUL have 555 million shares issued mate so there MC is around $100 million atm.

As to the EV calc'- HLX have $8-9 million cash so that should be about $30 mil EV.

I personally like to apply some value to their gold resources (600,000 oz @ Glenburgh and Tunkillia) in these days of >$900US oz bullion, which at an arbitrary $50 an ounce thats about $30 million by my figuring

As I have posted previously MEP's JV agreement will terminate early next year, so if they don't pull their finger out than I would imagine all of Tunkillia will revert to us.
Then we would be in possession of a resource (JORC) > 1 million Oz Au.
HLX are also focussed on proving up another 350,000 oz @ Glenburgh so that may be nearer 1.5 million oz?

Hence I don't see much being applied to us re: Fe at all.

I reckon we should be north of 65c ps just on fundamental comparison with CUL (ie same MC).

But then I am biased

Have a good weekend

 

[Jimminy]

CUL have 555 million shares issued mate so there MC is around $100 million atm.

As to the EV calc'- HLX have $8-9 million cash so that should be about $30 mil EV.
Hence I don't see much being applied to us re: Fe at all.

Well for one, I should never rely on Comsec for shares on issue...:nono:

But that highlights my proposition that Helix is still significantly undervalued.

And yes it then appears correct that we the market is not baking in any Fe or they simply feel that Minotaur will walk away - unlikely.

 

[SilverDollar]

At risk of talking to myself.

Now if we only look @ a conservative >100 MT for Helix @ 55%Fe.

HLX
131 Million shares @ $0.29 = $38 mil MC
30% of 100MT @ 55% Fe = 16.5 MT of Fe
EV = $2.30 Fe/T

I agree... 100MT seems is very conservative Kumina Creek alone could be a much larger resource than this. I had used slightly larger values in my calcs.

Either way this does seem very cheap and this could be a good year.

 

[jtb]

But that highlights my proposition that Helix is still significantly undervalued.

And yes it then appears correct that we the market is not baking in any Fe or they simply feel that Minotaur will walk away - unlikely.

Speaking of Minotaur,

Right up the front of the preso'

http://www.minotaurexploration.com....2acd9606b033f73/Minotaur_AMEC_Sydney_2008.pdf

Go HLX

 

[Sean K]

Hey J,

Certainly interesting watching the action lately, I see a funny little parcel closed the day off today so I wonder if thats indicative of anything?

Do you know much about AMCI ?

I wonder if their attention may run to some kind of script offer to mop up the junior partners?

Wicked MACD cross on the weekly chart and also a very long tailed hammer on the daily (for todays action) point to a resumption of the upward trend imo

27c Resistance hopefully cleared with strength

Love that sell side on the options too:

Go HLX

Had a great few weeks since that bottom at 15. Little ascending triangle happening here and should break up with this momentum.

What the hecks happening with Tunkilia?

 

[Go Nuke]

Well a heap more of those small trades going through today!

Its got to be AMCI accumulating?

I also noticed alot of similar small trades going through CUL as well.

This is one big game for the big boys here
Hopefully we will come out the winners.

A question....With this accumulation happening, whats likely to happen? A takeover of the smaller players like HLX?

If so, what happens to the options?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Well a heap more of those small trades going through today!

Its got to be AMCI accumulating?

I also noticed alot of similar small trades going through CUL as well.

This is one big game for the big boys here
Hopefully we will come out the winners.

A question....With this accumulation happening, whats likely to happen? A takeover of the smaller players like HLX?

If so, what happens to the options?

This is not ACCUMULATION
How can <$3500 in a day generate in your mind
ACCUMULATION?


I think a petition needs to be drawn and and these sort of Share trading habits should be OUTLAWED

It does noboby any good
INCLUDING the ASX itself

I believe that this sort of INSIDER /OUTSIDER PRIVALAGES with no brokerage fees only have a sinister note and I am prepared to
#1 Ban The share that the ASX allows to trade in this dispicable fashion

#2 Ban doing any bussines with any share the ASX has anything to do with!

In this Global Exchange and as is the Case in ALL BUSINESSES

The Head always rots from the top down!



Salute and Gods' speed

 

[Absolutely]

This is not ACCUMULATION
How can <$3500 in a day generate in your mind
ACCUMULATION?


I think a petition needs to be drawn and and these sort of Share trading habits should be OUTLAWED

It does noboby any good
INCLUDING the ASX itself

I believe that this sort of INSIDER /OUTSIDER PRIVALAGES with no brokerage fees only have a sinister note and I am prepared to
#1 Ban The share that the ASX allows to trade in this dispicable fashion

#2 Ban doing any bussines with any share the ASX has anything to do with!

In this Global Exchange and as is the Case in ALL BUSINESSES

The Head always rots from the top down!



Salute and Gods' speed

Yep I agree, the whole intent seems to confuse and muddy the waters. I have grave concerns as to what is actually occurring. It's definitely not accummulation, it's confusion.

So, why is someone trying to confuse things? It's obviously aimed at trying to maintain, gain or lower the price without risking large amounts.

Don't understand it. Wish I did.

 

[Jimminy]

Yep I agree, the whole intent seems to confuse and muddy the waters. I have grave concerns as to what is actually occurring. It's definitely not accummulation, it's confusion.

So, why is someone trying to confuse things? It's obviously aimed at trying to maintain, gain or lower the price without risking large amounts.

Don't understand it. Wish I did.

It's got me...

But I don't particularly care either - I'm happy that Helix investors are hanging around to see what this Jorc looks like.

 

[jtb]

Well a heap more of those small trades going through today!

-This is one big game for the big boys here

Hey Nuke,

Over a month ago now that this has been going on imo

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=281374&postcount=1009

All I can figure is that somebody is raking the depth, sucking out retail fools and triggering any rising sells/stop losses along the way

Considering it was held below 18c then bought up to 31c by these tiny parcels and then recently sold down again on minuscule volumes leads nowhere else imo.
Although I'm restricted to tracking course of sales data well after close of business atm it has been consistent in my observations that all large transactions occur near the highs for the day

As mentioned previously in regard to my HLXO amendment, theres obviously some weird conditional triggers laying in the background?

Go HLX

 

[Jimminy]

Helix still hanging tough after a strong rebound from the 16c low.

Any of the technical chartists out there wish to make any predictions on what we are seeing or are we purely going to move on a fundamental basis?

It's a interesting position for a stock with 131m+ shares on issue that there has been such a low volume. Basically no one wishes to sell and no one wishes to buy.

One can only presume the shares are in safe hands at these levels and that the sp needs to rise for people to be happy to sell.

Also, no bot today I notice.

cheers J.

 

[lienad]

well after some colsolidation there seems to be some renewed interst in this one. Maybe an ann due out? still having that strang trading of small parcels??

 

[Jimminy]

Announcemen t out people - finally.

112m t JORC (50% cutoff)......

69mt (55% cutoff)

It's good to see my patience on this stock rewarded big time.

Well done to all long.

cheers,

Lindo (doing a little dance).

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Amazing, simply amazing

Now lets try and value it shall we?

HLX 130m shares + 20m 25c options = 150m all up

$9m cash and assets from last qtrly + $5m if options exercised = $14m


Now EV for the deposit, I say use $5/t per tonne Fe

JORC 112Mts@ 55.5%Fe = 62Mt's Fe Net 30% to HLX = 18.5Mts Fe

@ $5/t = $93m

+ $14m cash options assets = $107m = 70c a share

 

[Sean K]

Well done to long term holders here. The 100Mt has finally come through, and perhaps surprised a little to the upside. And, just the initial. I lost confidence with some of the interim drilling unfortunately, and I will flagilate myself hentsforth.