HLX - Helix Resources

[sydneysider]

Yo!! My head hurts. I didn't have a drink last night, so I have a hangover from 4 weeks of Corona, Tequila and Margaritas.

I expect support at $0.20 now, but due to how hard it ran, and day trader influence, I'm not sure. Would like to see it test 20 and consolidate for a bit to shake the very short term traders.

That was an extremely fast pullback from 27 down to 16.5 and now back to 21. IMHO we just saw a very professionally run "sting" that shook loose several million shares over two days. I suspect that we will now see a tonne of depth pour into the buy side....

 

[constable]

Ta kennas, good luck with the head!! Meanwhile, back at the ranch, sp is nearly back to where it started! Seems while we were all posting we stopped selling lol

 

[Sean K]

A loss, but lesson well and truly learned.

Carma Statement withdrawn. (Sorry Karma!)

Good come back Sanhedrin.

I actually think your comment has exposed an issue for this and all other forums and that is the potential practice of 'pump and dump' which I think is the standard practice at HC and what we at ASF are trying to absolutely avoid.

The only real way to do that is to enforce strict rules about posting random price targets and comments with no technical or fundamental analysis. Joe and the Mods can not monitor every single comment, so some ramping does appear now and then.

In the case of this thread, there was plenty of information flowing for all to do their own research and analysis on.

I always caution people about jumping on things after they've bolted and to always have an escape plan, no matter what the stock. Might have come in handy here.

All the best.

 

[sydneysider]

Good come back Sanhedrin.

I actually think your comment has exposed an issue for this and all other forums and that is the potential practice of 'pump and dump' which I think is the standard practice at HC and what we at ASF are trying to absolutely avoid.

The only real way to do that is to enforce strict rules about posting random price targets and comments with no technical or fundamental analysis. Joe and the Mods can not monitor every single comment, so some ramping does appear now and then.

In the case of this thread, there was plenty of information flowing for all to do their own research and analysis on.

I always caution people about jumping on things after they've bolted and to always have an escape plan, no matter what the stock. Might have come in handy here.

All the best.

Kennas. I am looking at a 3 month chart of HLX on bigcharts and am always looking for unusual formations. The action in HLX certainly qualifies as "unusual" as the action over the last two days created an extremely large breakout to 27 and pullback with a base at 16.5. This was totally out of charcter with the build up of buyers and the flag formation and break-out that was underway. IMHO the pattern probably has several very deep pockets that pumped hard and dumped "lite". I think we are still headed very much higher as the deep pockets have added substantially to their long positions.

 

[stoxclimber]

Well its an interesting situation now..biggest barrier is the big sell order at 22c

 

[constable]

What is also of interest average price today (11.55 am) is 20.01c, not as many shares were sold off cheap as what I thought!

 

[Beethoven]

This stock kind of reminds me of JMS lol. Has absolutely no idea of marketing and has no marketing campaign. However this company cant be blamed for not releasing an ann because of it being free carried by other companies. I believe the fundamentals are still there and not much has changed since last week. I believe this stock has shaken out all the short term traders in the stock and left the majority of fundamentalists left on board including me. Go the fundies

 

[Dr Doom]

Hmmmmm 100% gain in 3 weeks and people still not satisfied cheers marc.

Have an exit plan, take profits when they present themselves, try not to rely on ta for everything, be prepared to change your philosophy if the fundamentals don't materialise.

 

[stoxclimber]

I believe the fundamentals are still there and not much has changed since last week. I believe this stock has shaken out all the short term traders in the stock and left the majority of fundamentalists left on board including me. Go the fundies

Yeah, the only real thing coming out of the report (which was released on the day of the first correction) was that there doesnt seem to be any impending releases of information..apart from that this is still the same stock that people were paying ~25c for 2 days ago happily..now its gone down to the 19s (and ASFers have probably been stopped out and are now upset.) I'm comfortably holding (although I'm a bit nervous that HLX might not significantly rise in time for me to make big money on my options).

 

[clowboy]

Now own up who panic sold? ...Still holding and picked up another 100k.

Panic, yes.

Sold, not yet.

 

[lounge chair]

young trader, back late last year you posted 3 charts, saying that if hlx broke 20c on a 3 year chart it would signal an uptrend long term. Do you still yhink this is the case.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

young trader, back late last year you posted 3 charts, saying that if hlx broke 20c on a 3 year chart it would signal an uptrend long term. Do you still yhink this is the case.

I can't post charts so I'm not 100% sure if that was me,

But nevertheless I always felt that once HLX broke 20c it was off into Blue Sky, and it sorta did that, ie 20c-27c = 35% in a few days,

However now it appears sentiment has turned ST,

I think stock will trade between 16c and 22c (I know thats a big channel) but given a lack of news, impatient punters may jump off,

Like I keep saying the key ST is MEP's JORC Upgrade, for those who are worried I will find and repost my fundamental analysis on HLX again,

My final comment is that I expect HLX rise to start again in April at the latest based on TOE drilling but may start even sooner if MEP upgrade Tunkillia or AQA do further work to Yallen, in 6 months all 3 projects will be well advanced and 20c will be a memory I'd suspect.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well despite the carnage, nothing has changed fundamentally for HLX


HLX
Share structure
100m shares + 25m 14c 31/3/07 opeis,

Mkt Cap
15c = $18.75m
20c = $25m
25c = $32m
30c = $37m
35c = $44m

Projects

Tunkillia Gold, HLX is 49% Free Carried by MEP, OXR has taken an option to earn 25% as well, if the project stakes up OXR have expressed their desire to purchase it outright as with Prominent Hill

This is the jewel in the crown,

JORC stands at 10.5Mt@2.2g/t = 730k oz's Au
However this is a 18month old JORC that HLX outlined, MEP has been drilling away for the past 12-18months and a new JORC is due out soon, the new JORC will probably be 15Mt@2.5g/t = 1.34 Million oz's Gold

Cap Ex is estimated to be $30m - $50m for a 1Mtp.a. or 2Mtp.a. plant

Cash operating costs are estimated at $400 oz which at a current AUD spot of $800 oz provides some very nice cash flow figures

NPV of project
Assumptions:
Resource = 730k oz's
Margin = Estimated to be $400/oz but use $300/oz to be safe
Cap Ex = $50m

730k oz's @ margin of $300oz = $220m less Cap Ex -$50m = $170m

Net to HLX = $170m x 49% = $80m = 64c HLX

Clearly alot of potential here and the most important factor that seperates HLX from other speccies is that a Proven Development company MEP are doing all the hard work to get the project going, thus funding is not going to be an issue, also as OXR has a back door option to buy into the project it spices things up a little. so its only a matter of time.

EXPECTING JORC UPGRADE WITHIN 2 MONTHS (expecting 75% increase to resource)

Gold - Tunkillia
Joint venture partner Minotaur Exploration Ltd has commenced the process of calculating a new JORC resource for the Area 223 ore-body taking into account the recent Diamond, RC and Slimline RC drilling completed by Minotaur up to December 2006. This drilling included some significant intersections in the oxide portion of the ore-body outside the previously defined resource as well as covering gaps in the 50m X 30m drilling grid. The additional mineralisation discovered in the shallow oxide zone has the potential to provide the project with additional shallow ounces to the
resource, as well as converting previous waste to resources.

In addition, ounces identified at Area 191 from recent drilling have the potential to add positively to the project economics.
Minotaur is continuing a program of slim-line RC drilling to add to knowledge of gold mineralisation in the oxide zone at Area 223, together with a metallurgical study into the leaching characteristics of both the oxide and primary ore types. Initial bottle roll tests have shown that both ore types have positive leaching characteristics, further column tests are now required to confirm this and calculate the expected recovery percentage for both ore types. Whilst these programs are expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2007 and assist in any development decision, Minotaur expend money at their discretion under the JV earn-in, have until March 2009 to expend the $5 million to earn their 51% and Helix can only release results when made available by Minotaur.

Glenburgh 100% Gold, W.A.
JORC 1.1Mt@3.1g/t = 110,000 Oz's Au, they're targeting a minimum 500k oz resource for a stand alone project

Lake Everard HLX 49% TOE (Toro) 51% Searching for uranium
S.A. part of Tunkillia area

Recent surveys by Toro Outlined several huge anamolies, they will be drill tested by a massive 1000 Hole Campaign in March/April

Uranium
Toro Energy Ltd has carried out a regional airborne AEM survey on 1 kilometre line spaces covering approximately 920 square kilometres of Helix’s Gawler tenements in South Australia. The AEM dataset was processed and a depth to basement-palaeochannel location interpretation was conducted by Toro’s geophysical consultants. The survey has identified an approximately 25
kilometre long portion of palaeochannel that appears prospective for uranium. From the AEM survey five (5) priority palaeochannel uranium targets have been identified, and each area will have in the vicinity of 200 holes drilled in fence lines to transect the palaleochannels to fresh basement. The target area is located on the eastern edge of South Australia’s Yellabinna nature reserve, therefore a series of access conditions must be met prior to drilling. Drill planning is currently underway, with fieldwork expected to commence at the end of the fire-ban season. Drilling is expected to commence in the Q2 of 2007, however Toro expend money at their discretion under the JV earn-in, have until mid 2009 to expend the $2 million to earn their 51% and Helix can only release results when made available by Toro.


Yallen 30% Free Carried by API, Pilbara W.A.

The drilling confirms a mineralised
zone of 2.7km x 900m, up to 30m thick and grading
up to 60% Fe.

2700x900x30 = 73m Cubic Metres Ore

Now over at the YML thread gringokonyo and camaybay established that 1cubic metre ore = 4 tonnes

73m Cubic Metres = 292mt Ore grading say 58% Fe


Iron Ore
Joint Venture partner Australian Premium Iron [“API”], which comprises AMCI Holdings Australia Pty Ltd and Aquila Resources Ltd, announced in December 2006 the discovery of buried channel iron mineralisation at the West Pilbara – Yalleen Iron Ore JV, which is located approximately 50kilometres east south-east of the Pilbara township of Pannawonica. API is spending $1.5 million prior to April 2009 to earn a 70% interest in the iron ore rights of the tenements held by Helix. Helix can thereafter elect to contribute pro-rata or dilute at $50,000 per 1% until its JV interest reaches 10%, wherein the Helix interest converts to a royalty of 50 cents per tonne.

The initial drilling results from the 1st target area confirms a mineralised zone of 2,700 metres by 900 metres. Whilst we expect API to commence drilling the other target areas from the Hoist EM survey and prepare a resource estimate as they move down the development path during 2007, API expend money at their discretion under the JV earn-in and Helix can only release results when made available by API.

Summary
Well its no longer an undiscovered GEM,

However Tunkilia still provids excellent true fundamental value, as does Yalleen with the AQA/API JV determined to get into production ASAP and will fully fund development if need be.

The U grounds around Tunkilia provide HUGE SPEC UPSIDE which we will se reflected in by a Share Price re-rating when drilling begins

 

[constable]

YT I noticed in the ann. that,
2700m by 900m by what? In one of your earlier posts you stated 30m but that wasn't stated in latest ann??

 

[stoxclimber]

re: YT's analysis, the company market cap is back down to about 23mm at today's close with 1.15mm cash. Those projects for 22mm (net cash) is undoubtably a better deal than for those who thought it was a good deal at ~24c HLX...whether or not you think its a great deal is up to you. BUt that said, a lot of scared/upset investors who got caught on the drop will be steering clear of this one for the near future i would think.

 

[kransky]

YT I noticed in the ann. that,
2700m by 900m by what? In one of your earlier posts you stated 30m but that wasn't stated in latest ann??

the results were varying from 1m to 30m... here they are: (10 holes)
30+1, 2, 6+1, 11, 1+2+14, 1+15, 30, 1, 12, 5

average of this is 13m
so that takes the iron ore down to 43% of YT's estimate. Still a LOT of iron ore though!

Importantly this is only the FIRST iron ore target identified in the area and they are drilling the other targets together with infilling this one.

The fundamentals are pretty good. The company is getting a free ride on some nice projects.

 

[moses]

Yo!! My head hurts. I didn't have a drink last night, so I have a hangover from 4 weeks of Corona, Tequila and Margaritas.

I expect support at $0.20 now, but due to how hard it ran, and day trader influence, I'm not sure. Would like to see it test 20 and consolidate for a bit to shake the very short term traders.

All the lizard's gizzards I could consult through the night support this view. A bit more shaking out, yes, maybe even down as low as 17c followed by consolidation before bouncing back up to new highs.

Essentially all the candles seems bearish, but I'm pleased to note a little ray of bull**** on the SMA and hope it is the first sign of a rebound to come.

I guess Thursday is shopping day.

 

[lounge chair]

sorry YT, in reply to post 492, it was kennas that posted the charts on 21-07-2007.

 

[Sean K]

young trader, back late last year you posted 3 charts, saying that if hlx broke 20c on a 3 year chart it would signal an uptrend long term. Do you still yhink this is the case.

LC, I was actually referring to the break through $0.14/15 which I though was a break of the long term down trend.

20 cents is even more important, and if it starts moving towards here, we have a general upward trend instead of just recovery....

The updated chart below shows where the break of the long term down trend was IMO. Breaking 20 cents was just a continuation of the break up, and certainly confirmation.

20 cents is very important as you can see the long term support/resistance at this level. Now that it has broken up through this, it becomes support. We saw this yesterday when the sp broke through, but quickly regained ground. So, 20 cents has been tested which makes it better support. If it's tested again, and holds then that's more validation.

Once again, this is just a probability. Nothing's a certainty, of course.

 

[Accaeric]

I am curious who places 500k of oppies @7c, but the heads is 19c?