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HIO - Hawsons Iron

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TechnoCap said:
Nice uptick Atko
Click to expand...
I’m not complaining, picked up a reasonable amount at 29c average.
Now to hold tight and hope everything goes to company plans.
I just hope the resource upgrade comes in close to expectations or we may see a fall back on SP.
You have a parcel too don’t you?
Hope you are enjoying the ride
 
Loaded up at 17c and 19c six digit parcel
 
HIO on the move today after management announced that the BFS will focus solely on a 20 Mtpa project due to its superior economics and investment appeal relative to a 10 Mtpa project.

Great positive step to optimise the project for economics and increase output. On current figures that gives the project a 20 year mine life.

 
BFS delayed, to examine escalating capital expenditure costs and all options to progress the project.
Wont be the last either to do this among the juniors.
SP predictably hammered as we speak.
 
I got the impression from their announcement that they have been disappointing shareholders for a while.

From around $0.38 to $0.10 as per chart.

Management should be proud of the great prudent job they have done and make sure they get a big bonus for Christmas.
Oh, and if there's not enough cash in the kitty for the bonuses, just dilute with a capital raise.
Shareholders, those disgusting pathetic creatures, I wish they could do away with them.

 
It's been mostly downhill since the May $1.08 high but HIO has always been buy low sell high.
 
I'm still scratching me head wondering where the shareholders thought Hawsons was going to get funding for the billions and billions needed for a complicated iron ore mine? The pre-production capex was 1.4USD billion in 2017 - so probably upwards of 3.0 AUD billion today - and then what was the peak draw down of capital going to be? 3.5 billion? 4.0 billion? There simply is not enough capital in the world to fund every tom dick and harry who has a marginal deposit. But good on the people that got in last year and dumped before this week!

Wasn't there a fair bit of boardroom drama as well a few years ago when it was carepertina resources or whatever it was called?

If you want iron, just rip up another patch of land in the WA, Plenty of iron there right off the highways and near the ports.

Details from 2017 below:
 
I guess they need to spruik the project. A few years ago, management were talking about building a slurry pipe down to the smelters in Sth Aust. Talk about a grand vision!
Now its a slurry pipe into Broken Hill but geez, me thinks in this risk averse climate at least, there are lot's of hurdles to overcome. Especially those infrastructure expenses and costs.

Still, furnaces (see what I did there?) favour the higher grade magnetite ores so, only a matter of time before this project becomes a reality. In the meanwhile, buy low sell high is my mantra.
 
A friend of mine asked me to look into this.

Any thoughts?

If I was judging this on the charts, I'd say it might be a good turn around story. But otherwise, I'd look away.

I haven't even looked at it's ground yet, but would appreciate an opinion.


 
A friend of mine asked me to look into this.
Sean K said:
Any thoughts?

If I was judging this on the charts, I'd say it might be a good turn around story. But otherwise, I'd look away.

I haven't even looked at it's ground yet, but would appreciate an opinion.


View attachment 180632View attachment 180633
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Usually, I avoid iron ore companies. Also, information at Simply Wall Street can be dodgy quite often though this time they have some basic information that is worth noting: https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/chia-hio/hawsons-iron-shares/valuation
They have a debt of $122 million, M/C of $25 million, and $2.46m cash at the end of the last quarter with available funding of $11.39m. PE Ratio is 3.1 and cash dropped $1 million in the last quarter.

This was a view at Motley Fool on April 25, 2024.

Is it a good time to buy ASX iron ore shares?​

How long is a piece of string?
Whether now is the time to buy ASX iron ore shares depends on future supply and demand. Views are conflicted here.
Miners such as Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) have reduced their dividend payouts from 2022 highs — a characteristic of the late 'trimming' stage.
However, some believe iron ore is set for a multi-decade supply shortfall. If true, we might still be in the first stage of the cycle. Meanwhile, others are more wary of the demand side of the equation.
China reportedly began cutting steel production last month as iron ore inventories pile up. Liberum senior commodities analyst Tom Price said, "It's hard to build a bullish case for iron ore over any time horizon at the moment."
The going price of iron ore is down 22% year-to-date at US$108.8 per tonne.
-----

I wonder if they have rail connections for shipping worked out. Also if they can get a Berth at the Port. Companies like BHP etc., usually have these booked out for years ahead. Also if the grade isn't consistent it will have to be mixed usually with other iron ore at the port.

My view is to only buy if willing to sit on the shares for a few years without any concern about the share price. Something I've done in the past and usually regretted doing so - Good Luck to your friend.
 
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Thanks Noirua.

I've been doing my own research on this today and I'm struggling to find any reason to buy it. To be honest, I did know a lot about iron deposits about 15 years ago when people like Young Trader were providing some good analysis and I took an interest but I've switched to other metals more recently. Back then, I didn't really consider magnetite as a good play due to the Capex/Opex compared to DSO. This looks like one of those stocks where you think it can't possibly go lower, but it keeps going lower.
 
FWIW.
Some history as per attached PDF...
Hawsons was discovered by Carpentaria Resources (then Carpentaria Exploration) in 2009.
The project was declared a ‘State Significant Development’ by the New South Wales Government in 2012.
Click to expand...

More recently and not having heard or read differently, until approvals, funding and works actually begin on the proposed, underground slurry pipe and the new deep water port, my expectation is that the SP will stagnate.

From HIO Hawson project web page: -
As much as I'd really like this to become a reality especially due to the economic impact and work/job creation for my region, long ago I've put this one into the "not-anytime-soon" basket.
Certainly wish I'm proven wrong...
 

Attachments

  • 099-Carpentaria-Fact-Sheet-March_website-version.pdf
    637.5 KB · Views: 10
Also forgot to mention the HIO Regal Funds Management institutional placement Nov 2022, the SPP (Share Puchase Plan) Feb 2023 and the SPO (Share Purchase Offer) May 2024 to name a few of institutional and retail placements from recent history.

FWIW and IMHO, all helping to dilute/depress the SP and going forward probably setting the company up for a consolidation of its shares.
 
Middle of nowhere in a harsh desolate place needing god knows how much capex 500kms from Ocean , Buying this would be a massive hail mary . if you patient enough the options be available for close to nothing . About what they worth
 
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