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HDR - Hardman Resources

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Re: TZL and HDR

Interesting article Markor, looks like brokers are still disagreeing on which price to use for their models. One thing is for sure, you can expect some big spikes from time to time. It's also a good thing we don't drive too many luxury 4WD's downunder.

Hope we're all strapped in for the ride, this'll be the first month of real results.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hope we're all strapped in for the ride, this'll be the first month of real results.
Click to expand...
Very true! I'm holding and I'm well strapped in for the ride, so bring it on!

Have a nice weekend

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Here's another reason to stay in.

Locally listed Global Petroleum recently announced it's spin off for the Falklands prospects (can't recall the exact name (Falklands oil and gas?)- and guess who else is there? That's right, HDR. Since everyone is concentrating on Mauritiana they sometimes forget that there are so many other areas that HDR will be working on in future. Multiple exposure with a single holding in HDR, although less leverage since HDR is now much bigger than when it started.

So any news from the Falklands will impact on HDR as well. And there are many more prospects dotted around the world.

(BG Group is another interesting co but they aren't listed locally.)

Hope everyone has stop losses in place, no stock should be allowed to fall too far. This'll be a tougher call for investors (as opposed to traders).
 
Re: TZL and HDR

If HDR should be able to find oil as long as the price is above US$50 (it just closed over $50 for the first time) then the share price will skyrocket. I have no doubt that this company could become a major player in the Australian oil market. They yet have to deliver proof that there is oil in the many places they are digging for it but chances are that they will hit the jackpot on least at a few of those rigs.

It is going to be a bit of a strange ride with lots of risk and potentially big drops in price whenever there is a failure. In 2 months things will be much clearer. From this week forward we should see the first drilling results being released so stay tuned...

Have a nice weekend

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Saw some interesting comments on a broker chatsite (Comsec) about HDR having a sizeable holding in Pan Pacific Petroleum PPP via Equitas nominees. I tried to verify this via checking announcements but since I'm not that good at research I couldn't find it- so consider it unconfirmed till I can find more info.

The person on the site reckons HDR may takeover PPP instead of buying into PPP's areas (somewhere in NZ) if it becomes attractive. PPP is only 14c so it'll be cheap. I'm alwasy suspicious of rumours but it's interesting to note, again, that HDR isn't just a Mauritiana play. BTW, PPP hasn't been going up on takeover rumours so it may be a deadend. PPP has spiked from time to time but only due to news from its own operations.

Let me know if anyone comes up with anything different.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Rich,

From the HDR website:
Hardman has purchased (on market) 10,000,000 ordinary shares in Pan Pacific Petroleum NL ("Pan Pacific"), a petroleum exploration and production company listed on the Australian and New Zealand stock exchanges. Pan Pacific currently owns 43% of the producing onshore Tubridgi Gas Field in the Carnarvon Basin, Australia and during the year it was involved in two oil discoveries from wells drilled in each of the Carnarvon Basin, Australia and the Taranaki Basin, New Zealand. This investment is considered medium-term.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Thanks Stefan, silly me for not looking in the most obvious place!
 
Re: TZL and HDR

I'm getting bored waiting for the news so here's a chart comparing HDR with the warrants HDRWMI (low liq, expire 23 Dec 2004). I hold both.

Might dump some HDR and buy more HDRWMI if there's a bad news. I'll have to time each transaction properly though, might get tricky. HDRWMI at 31c and HDR at $2.17 on chart.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Sorry about the chart not appearing, I wanted to use BigCharts but they don't show HDRWMI so I'll have to use the FatProphets site, not as nice as BigCharts but it's free and better than nothing. (I tried StockNessMonster (Joe's favourite) but it only shows very basic data).
Well here it is.
 

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  • HDRvsHDRWMI FP.png
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Re: TZL and HDR

HDR:
And so we finally have some pretty good news emerging from the drilling program in Mauritania. I'm certainly pleased to read today's report

This stock has some major potential and I'll keep holding for a while.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Yes, nice to see it moving. Hopefully this news will attract new investors too. The price is settling just below $2.30 at the moment but it may break $2.30 over the week if expectations rise. What I'm surprised at is that it didn't scoot through $2.30, I suppose it shows that the holders of HDR are a bit more cautions now (and dare I say it 'mature'), probably the sovereign risk premium helping to reduce volatility, also, it's still just the start of the drilling campaign.

I'm really waiting on the Dorado results, it's high risk but the rewards are commensurate.

One of the better known brokers had HDR's NPV in the low $2.20's last month so this is a conservative price level IMHO.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

What I'm surprised at is that it didn't scoot through $2.30
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Yes, there seems to be a massive wall at 2.30. It will just keep trying and eventually it will eat it away. The news are very promising so I'd say it will happen sooner than later. This stock was at 2.5 before it fell and now that there is real good news, it should end up at these levels again pretty soon.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Yep, there are some big orders there. Before the fall from its high the price was just going up fast on its own with little reason, more due to speculation. That last bit of action before it hit the high $2.40s was in the upper part of the channel.

At least now it's tied to some news. So less upside but more reasononing so it's better long term. I'll check my charts again next week to see how the price responds to previous levels. I just want it to keep above $2.22 for now (from memory this is the lower support trendline).

The Woodside discoveries made the afternoon papers so maybe more buyers this week.

If only there were co issued options, would've been more exciting than the warrants! I'll have to get into proper options one day.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

RichKid said:
The Woodside discoveries made the afternoon papers so maybe more buyers this week.
Click to expand...

There was decent coverage in this morning's AFR as well as in The Age: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/10/05/1096949508856.html

It has been said before but with HDR being a little brother of WPL in the Mauritania drilling project, any limelight that WPL enjoys relating to Mauritania will eventually reflect in HDR's share price.
Despite fluctuating oil prices, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/crude1.html
WPL's share price has increased in general over the past 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WPL.AX&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=
In my opinion, the piggybacking of HDR on WPL can only be advantageous and HDR would enjoy similar growth in the future

P.S: I like my links...
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Nice day for HDR today! Easily broke that 2.3 barrier this morning.
Ah, this is going the way I like it

If they have more good news next week, then I start wondering what sort of new price range this stock will be able to achieve. Is $4 too far fetched if we assume that there will be mostly (but not all) positive news from their drilling program?

Any comments welcome!

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hey Rich,

Aren't you glad you didn't sell at $2.30!!! Good to see this one running well.

$4 or $5 or more? Hard to say at this stage, it could go on to become anything. Or may even get taken over before that!

The fact is that when it becomes a producer next year (late 2005 or 2006?) things will change as we'll see real revenue, always makes a difference to how we view a company. Who knows, they may get generous and start giving loyal holders like us some dividends as well. But this drilling campaign has quite some time to go. There are also those other interests around the world which are hard to put dollar figures on at the moment. It's an earlycall but I'm estimating that HDR will break $3 this year.

Did you see the Tiof estimate in AirReview daily yesterday? Once this is officially released there should be more upside next week, unless it gets factored in beforehand in which case there may be some profit taking by a few people on the next daily surge post Tuesday annoucement.
 
Re: TZL and HDR

That was supposed to be 'Hey Stefan',
looks funny when I talk to myself!!!!
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Hi Rich,

Aren't you glad you didn't sell at $2.30!!! Good to see this one running well.
Click to expand...
You bet! So thanks for pointing me into the right direction! I just turned it into a long term investment after reading more about it. At the moment all signs are up and the only real risk is that they don't find oil at the majority of places where they are currently looking for it. That would certainly take the heat off a bit. I'm willing to take that risk.

As you said, there is so much happening at the moment, it could go anywhere. So here I am. Holding and smiling

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: TZL and HDR

Glad to be of some help Stefan, enjoy the pickings. What's really good is that you did some background work and are now comfortable with HDR on your own terms. (I really admire your courage hanging on to MUL- I hope it justifies your faith so hang in there! HDR management are far more reliable)

Rises will now be smaller percentage wise for HDR but it's a good cornerstone stock for the next few years IMO. I'll skim profits off it from time to time as some wells will be duds (and people like me do get bored!).

Dorade is the one I'm really interested in as it's the only one not connected to existing finds. So if they don't find anything it might be dissapointing but somewhat expected. If they do find oil there then it'll be a HUGE bonus and there's no telling how many millions of barrells are under there- that'll definitely send HDR up real fast.

(Hope you had time to checkout the Tiof and Tevet estimates at AirReview daily- that is probably what is driving the price at the moment, it's all about anticipation and excitement till the hard figures come out)
 
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