GTP - Great Southern Plantations

abucs said:

More days like today please.

Click to expand...

Yes, indeed. Sold 5000 at 4.04. Stil hold 15,300.
Bought end of 2001 at 54 cents.

Julia

Well done Julia. You were obviously 'on the ball' at 54c.

Here's hoping you get an even better price for the remaining 15,300 shares.

Go GTP go.....keep increasing those sales above market expectations.....shock those analysts.........take em by surprise........$5 here we come.....

Anyone know what the price sensitive news on GTP is??

Hello The Analyst,

It is GTP's ex divie day today. Would that be what you wanted to know?

Ann said:

Hello The Analyst,

It is GTP's ex divie day today. Would that be what you wanted to know?

Click to expand...

usually ex div day, people stick to plan and ignore "other news"

Hello Analyst,

Why do you think there was a price sensitive announcement?
SP is up 2 cents which is pretty OK for ex-div day. Last announcement was 7.3.06.

Julia

Sorry people...on my online broker stock quote screen there was a symbol representing price sensitive info and i was looking everywhere for the info but realise it was ex-div.

Thx guys/gals

Go GTP Go......$5 here we come!!!!!!

There seems to be some big buy orders (by single bidders) at the moment.
The reverse has been true recently but the stock was still was going up.

I think it is a good sign that there are significant buyers about especially with the stock 'holding it's recently increased price' with the ex-dividend announcement today.

I'm not one for trends but it looks good to my amateur eye.

Has GTP stopped it's wild swings this way and that, or is it about to go again on further news ?

Its only 3 months and 1 week away from the end of the financial year......and looking like a strong second half and to beat sales expectations and to continue on for a number of years.

Its a wonder they havent got into turkeys and salmon/trout farming yet...

Sugar cane and bananas ??

even buying up all the wheat, barley, farms from farmers and just re contract the farmers to harvest and manage it as well......there is a superannuation fund doing just that at the moment......can you see where this is all going????

michael_selway said:

usually ex div day, people stick to plan and ignore "other news"

Click to expand...

whoops it broke the generalisation!

something good is coming i suspect

thx

MS

Seems to me that agribusinesses and (cashed up supermarket chains) would be eyeing off wineries and all that great land/soil at present while they are at he bottom of a cyclical downturn..

Certainly would be some great longer term assets in the long term..

The supermarkets have already been involved for a while and do hold crop land for their own brand products already.

I do not know at this stage if this is really a good thing unless of course you are an investor.

Everyone is smiling now that you're all making money on GTP.
The reason you're making money is simply because the chart is heading towards the top right corner of your computer screens.
We should all put a white dot in the top right corner of our screens.
Then we should print out these words....IF ITS NOT HEADING TOWARDS THE WHITE DOT I WON'T BUY IT.
Having printed out these 12 words, we should keep them beside our computers and read them at least once a day.

Reading through the posts on this forum, so often I see people buying a stock that's heading south or south east on the chart. They need it to head north east if they're to make any money, yet they buy it when its heading in the wrong direction.
Its a bit like someone wanting to hitch hike from Sydney to Brisbane, but instead of hitching a ride with cars travelling north, he hitches with the cars heading south - then wonders why he's not getting closer to his intended destination.

Australian marathon swimmer Suzie Maroney broke the world record by swimming further faster than anoyne had ever swum before.
She didn't do it in a meandering outback creek.
She chose Australia's largest river, the Murray, when it was in flood. She and her support team drove up near the headwaters of the Murray and she dived in and swam with the current. By using the current of the powerfully flowing river to sweep her along, she easily set a new world record.

As traders of the stockmarket can learn a lot from Suzie Maroney. We can find outselves a powerfully flowing river (a strongly uptrending stock that's heading towards that white dot in the top right corner of our screens), and we can dive into it and let ourselves be swept along by the current (the momentum of the stock).
If it stops flowing in the right direction (stops uptrending), we can climb out of the water (close our position) and look for the next flooded river (strongly trending stock) to dive into.

GTP is in a nice uptrend - on both daily and weekly charts the 20 period EMA is heading for the top right corner of our screens.
As long as the 20 EMA keep heading north east, the stock can be held, and added to on the dips.

But some of you will make some nice gains, only to see them melt away because you hang on after the uptrend runs out of steam.

At any given time there are strongly trending stocks in the market. We can greatly enhance our trading returns by trading only in these strong trenders.
GTP at present is a good example of this.

Bunyip

Bunyip

The Suzie Moroney story is a great analogy.
What I always find difficult is appreciating the end of an uptrend. For those of us with only a minimal understanding of TA, would you say the use of a trailing stop loss is a reasonable device for exit?

Cheers
Julia

Julia,

Julia said:

What I always find difficult is appreciating the end of an uptrend.

Click to expand...

That can indeed be a difficult thing to appreciate.

I think it depends on your definition of a trend over the time frame you're considering. A long term investor's small correction might well be a short term trader's end of trend.

IMO, you first need to decide what you consider a trend for the stock you've purchased and your strategy. You then need to decide what you would consider the end of that trend. Numerous ways could then be used to indicate it.

For example, you might use a trend line with a certain amount of movement to the right or below the line signalling the end, or you might use a moving average with a cross below the MA signalling the end, or you might use two moving averages with a crossover signalling the end. A trailing stop is another possibility. With MAs and trailing stops though, you still need to decide what parameters to use with them, and it's likely that different parameters would best suit different stocks due to the differences in volatility (especially for short term systems). You might also decide to look for multiple conditions, for example: a cross below a trend line or MA and then either another few closes below the line or a certain percentage drop below the line, whichever came first.

And for a longer-term system, you might decide to base it on a weekly or even monthly chart rather than daily.

Whatever you choose though, there will always be cases where you get out too early, and the stock will turn back up minutes later and surge to new highs without you . However, it's ultimately the overall profitability that counts, and getting out of a few too early is likely better than staying in many more for too long. If one does take off again, you can always buy back in (which of course leads to the opposite question of how to appreciate when a trend's starting or is continuing ).

would you say the use of a trailing stop loss is a reasonable device for exit

Click to expand...

A trailing stop can be an excellent device for exit, but it may not suit a particular stock or your particular strategy. And, as I mentioned, you need to decide on what parameters it should use. Too tight and you're dumped too quick, too loose and you lose too much before it's triggered. That's why some trailing stops are based on some measure of volatility (eg. Average True Range and Guppy count back), but even then, volatility can have spikes that will kick you out anyway.

All IMHO of course

Cheers,
GP

Hi Julia

Trailing stops are my preferred exit strategy for a trend trading approach.
In their book 'Computer Analysis Of The Futures Market', authors Lucas and Le Beau discussed a number of exit strategies, but stated that they were yet to find a better exit strategy than a trailing stop. Their findings are applicable not only to futures, but also to stocks and indeed any freely traded market.

If we plan on adopting a trailing stop exit strategy, then we need to decide where/how we'll trail it.
The obvious place to trail the stop is just below the levels which, if breached, will indicate that the trend is finished.
We've all heard that 'the trend is your friend'. Therefore we need to be able to recognise our friend when we see him.
The definition of an uptrend is 'progressively higher peaks and troughs'.
As an example of peaks and troughs we can look at the daily chart of NCM and see a peak on 29/11 followed by a trough on 1/12, the next peak was on 12/12 and was followed by the trough on 16/12, and so on as the trend progressed.
The way to trail the stop was to move it to just below the trough of 1/12, but only after the preceding trough on 29/11 was taken out. The next level for the trailing stop was just under the trough of 16/12, but only after the preceding peak on 12/12 was taken out.
The significance of these troughs is that if price falls below them, it indicates that the trend is probably finished, at least for the time being. By trailing our stop just below the levels identified by these troughs, we're automatically taken out of the trade when the trend changes.

Another issue with trailing stops is that we need to decide on our time frame. A daily chart can form peaks and troughs at different levels to the peaks and troughs on a weekly chart. The choice of time frame depends on your objective for the trade. I remember something Ivan Krastins (author of 'Listen To The Market') said about timeframes at one of his workshops years ago......"If you want to ride big trends for big profits, you have to go to a longer time frame."
A longer time frame from Ivan's viewpoint was weekly charts.
By trailing your stop according to the peaks and troughs on a weekly chart, you'll stay in trades longer with the result that you'll have less trades over the course of a year, but your profits per trade will tend to be quite large. (assuming that you manage to get aboard some trades that turn out to be big, prolonged trenders).
On the other hand, if you're more inclined towards smaller profits that occur more often, you might want to trail your stop according to the peaks and troughs on a daily chart.

Since a trailing stop is designed to help you ride the trend in your chosen time frame, it stands to reason that this strategy is best suited to stocks that tend to trend in a relatively stable manner. Penny stocks that fluctuate wildly are not suited to a trailing stop strategy.

Cheers
Bunyip

Great Pig and Bunyip

Thank you both for comprehensive and useful responses - much appreciated.

You've both pretty much confirmed my present approach which treats stocks such as GTP quite differently from, say, ANZ.

This is why I get just a bit irritated when various people advocate any given method of managing stocks as the be all and end all, regardless of the individual characteristics of particular stocks

Julia