Google Trends to analyse markets?

[shaunQ]

Hi - similar to OzWaveGuys Contrarian Indicators, perhaps using Google Trends could give some indicators of overall web activity. I tried lots of different comparisons, but this one stood out.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=debt,gain&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

or

http://www.google.com/trends?q=unemployment,success&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

or

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bull+market,+bear+market&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Any comments/thoughts/suggestions?

 

[sinner]

Yeah check this one out, used to bepretty consistent (you can see for 2005,2006) then in 2007 there was a spike before the usual slump, will be very interesting to see what happens for this year end!

http://www.google.com/trends?q=job&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Click on the different countries to see some very interesting trends. i.e. the UK has been on lower lows each years normal trend, very obvious to see this in the chart.

Savings account for Australia pretty good one

http://www.google.com/trends?q=savings+account&ctab=0&geo=AU&geor=all&date=all&sort=0

Notice the massive spike leading into the current!

I've got a whole bunch written down somewhere but it's late and I'm tired so I will just post this last one I remember, "buy gold"

http://www.google.com/trends?q=buy+gold&ctab=0&geo=all&geor=all&date=all&sort=0

for all regions the saw-tooth formation for this year is very insightful, look at the top 5 countries searching AU, US, UK, Can, Denmark (India and Sweden close together at 6 and 7) and make sure you check out the individual country charts for some interesting trends! Just look at India for example, barely anyone searched "buy gold" until second half 2008 and volume went huge in several spikes, hardly Diwali inspired imo!

I could go on for ages...

I was gonna start a thread on this because I saw someone using a similar analysis on a contrarian website but thought I had already made a big enough noob of myself.

 

[shaunQ]

I was gonna start a thread on this because I saw someone using a similar analysis on a contrarian website but thought I had already made a big enough noob of myself.

Yes, probably where I saw it, and I am still at that noob stage, so posted it.

Thanks for the samples!

 

[OzWaveGuy]

It's a very interesting way to look at markets and many topics in general that are headlined in the media, by Government and Corporations.

Once everyone is saying the same thing - the opposite will happen. It's simply a useful way to predict a possible change in trend or direction. The contrarian chart post based on the actual activity in this forum was a good indicator of this - surprised me a little in terms of timing.

I hear some people say we should turn off the TV, not listen to the news and get sucked into the FUD - and they're right. However, it's useful to watch and read it as they can be indicators of timing for the opposite.

And of course this was a highlight in contrarian timing (originally highlighted by another organization I subscribe to)....

 

[Geoff]

Once everyone is saying the same thing - the opposite will happen.

Everybody's doom and gloom at the moment, so the XAO is due to punch through 9000 any time now :

Certainly a good theory though - when the outlook is so overwhelmingly positive and confidence is overinflated, bad news deals a real shock to the unsuspecting.