Goodman Fielder IPO - anyone in?

[taurus]

Hi guys, just wanting to see if anyone is in on the Goodman float, and reasons why/why not to be in. I made an awesome return on BPC, but am not so optomistic about this float...seems to be a great deal of negativity surrounding it.

Anyone care to shed some light?

Cheers,
T.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi Taurus,

GFF ..... coincidentally, earlier this month the following
cycle analysis on GFF and some other current floats was
done.

Here's the post, in its entirety:

Hi folks,

IPOs present some real challenges to many analysts,
not least, is how to anticipate market turns in the
early history of any listed entity.

Of course, if we were paid the big bucks, like blodgett
and his cronies, we could just invent some rubbish
and feed it to the unsuspecting masses.

Real traders however, often need to evaluate markets,
with only limited technical data available .....

..... a typical example being an IPO.

Fortunately, with Gann's astrotrading tools, we can look
ahead from listing of the entity and make some fairly
accurate assumptions about market news/moves, on
particular key dates.

Here's a few current examples:

Goodman Fielder - GFF - lists 19122005

27-28122005 ..... minor and negative

Throughout the whole of January 2006 there's an
underlying tone of negativity for GFF, so any positive
cycles may record a muted response in the price.

06-09012006 ..... significant and positive

13-16012006 ..... significant and positive news

17-18012006 ..... significant and positive???

20-27012006 ..... BIG time negative .... most likely the
worst for 2006 ... !~!

..... negative cycles continue, in early February 2006.

======

In stark contrast:

Tutt Bryant - TBG - lists 15122005

20122005 ..... minor and negative

22122005 ..... minor and positive

27122005 ..... minor news

06-09012006 ..... minor and positive

13-16012006 ..... minor and positive news

20-23012006 ..... significant and negative

25-27012006 ..... positive ..... finance-related???

Early February 2006 may be choppy, with an underlying
negative tone throughout the month.

02022006 ..... significant and negative news???

06022006 ..... BIG news ..... some conflict here???

10-13022006 ..... minor and positive ..... finances???

20-022006 ..... positive news???


=====

SP Ausnet - SPN - lists 14122005

15122005 ..... minor and negative

16-19122005 ..... significant and negative

28122005 ..... minor and positive

January 2006 has an underlying negative tone for SPN.

02012006 ..... negative news ???

11012006 ..... positive ..... finance-related

16012006 ..... significant and positive

20012006 ..... significant and positive news???

06022006 ..... minor

08-09022006 ..... significant and positive

14022006 ..... minor changes

27022006 ..... 2 cycles here ... significant financial news???


=====

Spark Infrastructure - SKI - lists 16122005

Some long periods of flat trading ahead for this stock,
in December 2005 and January 2006 and June 2006.

Watch key dates and price action, similar to HDR .....

=====


So, instead of flying blind into a stag selloff, on the
next hot ipo ... maybe some of Gann's astroanalysis
will help some traders survive the shakeout, by exiting
before the onslaught ..... yes ... ???

happy days

yogi

P.S. .... with only limited data from the listing details, any
IPO or stock with limited data (for whatever reason)
may be readily analyzed for future key dates .....

 

[taurus]

Thanks for the info

Although this article is rather optomistic
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3491698a13,00.html

..there still seems to be a lot of negativity...bit troubling. We'll see by the 12th how its all unfolded anyway.

Cheers,
T.

 

[chansw]

Here is a review on Goodman Fielder IPO from The Intelligent Investor's Float Tank. Their recommendation is 'Avoid'.

The original URL is
http://www.floattank.com.au/focus.php?page=29136


"Company: Goodman Fielder Ltd (GFF)
Status: Open
Amount Sought: $ 1,855,000,000.00
Issue Price: $ 2.00
Shares on Issue: 927,500,000
Closing Date: 09 Dec, 2005
Listing Date: 28 Dec, 2005
Website Address: http://www.goodmanfielder.com.au
Phone: 02 8874 6000
Recommendation: Avoid
Review Date: 24 Nov, 2005


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Branded foods company Goodman Fielder is set to float for the second time around. But it seems unlikely that New Zealand’s richest man, Graeme Hart, would give away a bargain.
It was only a few weeks ago that we were complaining about the size of the Macquarie Media Group offer document, but that pales in comparison with the 260-page tome that is the Goodman Fielder prospectus. You probably know of some of the products the company manufactures – Wonder White and Mighty Soft breads, Meadow Lea margarine and White Wings cake mixes are just some of its many brands.
This won't be the first time Goodman Fielder has been listed. Until March 2003, Goodman Fielder operated as an independent company until being swallowed in a debt-fuelled takeover by Burns Philp. In an attempt to reduce its debt burden, Burns Philp has been entertaining offers to sell parts of Goodman Fielder for some time and it is rumoured to have received an offer of $3.6bn from a private equity firm. However, Burns Philp has spurned these advances and it's now looking to sell approximately 70% of the company to raise about $1.8bn at a price between $1.85 and $2.00.

But the new Goodman Fielder isn't the same business as the original. The new company will have four main divisions: Baking Australia, Meadow Lea Australia, Retail New Zealand, and Commercial. Burns Philp is retaining the Uncle Toby's snack food business, acquired in the original takeover, which has arguably better growth prospects than the brands that are being sold on. And, if the capital-raising is successful, the new Goodman Fielder will acquire a dairy foods group from Rank Group, an entity associated with Burns Philp's major shareholder, Kiwi entrepreneur Graeme Hart, for $NZ800m-900m.

Goodman Fielder will occupy the number one or two position in Australia and New Zealand in each of its key areas and this should generate some healthy cash flows. The company is predicting growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of 11% in 2006, to $417m, with a further increase of 12% in 2007. Depending on the final price, and based on a forecast dividend of 5.5 cents for 2006, this equates to a PER of 13.1 to 14.2 and an annualised dividend yield of 5.5–5.9%.

At first blush, that looks pretty fair. But being covered only 1.2 times by earnings, the dividend looks a bit of a stretch, and a PER of around 14 is hardly the bargain basement for a group of mature businesses. Coming at it from the other direction, the price shareholders will pay implies a total enterprise value (that is, including debt) of between $3.55 and 3.75bn. This might compare well with the mooted $3.6bn private equity bid, but it doesn't look as good against the valuations of some other branded foods companies.

It's also instructive to look at what Burns Philp paid for Goodman Fielder when it bought the company in 2003. It takes a bit of digging, but if you manage to keep your eyes open until page 245 of the prospectus you'll discover that Burns Philp paid a price of 7.0 times EBITDA for Goodman Fielder. Now, less than three years later, Burns Philp is attempting to sell the company, albeit not exactly the same business, back to the public for between 8.5 and 9.0 times EBITDA.

And of course Goodman Fielder is now earning significantly more than when it was swallowed a few years ago. One of Hart's trademarks is his ability to trim the fat from a business, and a review of the financials reveals that cost reductions were a major contributor to Goodman Fielder's increased earnings over the past few years. With the group now operating much more efficiently, it will be that much harder to make further increases to earnings.

Then there is the changing nature of the branded foods business. The main customers of Goodman Fielder are the large supermarket chains, including Coles Myer and Woolworths. Both have indicated that they intend to introduce more 'home brand' products in the future, and this could catch Goodman Fielder in a double bind: either it loses as the supermarkets source from alternative suppliers, or it agrees to supply the 'home brand' product and has to live with lower margins than on its traditional branded goods.

Goodman Fielder might own some of Australasia's best-known brands, but Graeme Hart didn't become New Zealand's richest man by selling businesses on the cheap. With the food brands industry facing significant challenges, Goodman Fielder is, we're sorry to say, another float to AVOID."

 

[Fleeta]

I read the prospectus and it was one of the most complicated documents I have ever read in my life...as a BPC shareholder, I am not subscribing because I just do not understand.

Why would Rank Group (Hart's business), buy a New Zealand Dairy Product company from Fonterra, only to sell it to GF within 12 months...and why would BPC buy GF and delist it only to sell it off within 12 months. Graeme Hart has gone mad...I think he must be taking advice from Chicken these days!

 

[Odduna]

I dont see this stock rising like their products do.

 

[Julia]

I also looked at it and rejected it.

Julia

 

[karmatik]

Has anybody got comments on this stock now? Its share price since it floated appears to be very erratic.

 

[shinobi346]

Up and down since floating. yep.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

RE : GFF divi' has it been declared of recent days, if so how much ? somebody told me tonite> 5.5 cents?

 

[NettAssets]

RE : GFF divi' has it been declared of recent days, if so how much ? somebody told me tonite> 5.5 cents?

It may have been mooted in the annual report but there is no divi released on the ASX that I can find.

John