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It would be good news if more Aussies waved the:aus: and made a point of not buying foreign goods where ever they can.
*Good News Only Thread - Stocks & Shares*
- Thread starter noirua
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It would be good news if more Aussies waved the:aus: and made a point of not buying foreign goods where ever they can.
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Are you concerned? Well don't be and ignore the doom and gloom that some may spread. Interest rates should not rise from here and a downward march should start later in the year.
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...and good old President Bush is to pump US$40 billion more into the market to help liquidity.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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I wouldn't have thought that as good news.
Oh well, at least US$40 billion is better than
President Bush is doing his best and it is Greenspan and Bernankes' fault, so Dr Doom & Gloom says.
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Oh well, at least US$40 billion is better than
President Bush is doing his best and it is Greenspan and Bernankes' fault, so Dr Doom & Gloom says.
Has also pointed out the historically low price of sugar. It may be good news for some to seek out the companies that could be set to benefit.
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Good news is now coming in at the double as the USA and Europe pile in the dough. Another US$200 billion to help liquidity.
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Increasingly, with the US Fed set to cut rates to near zero we can see the need for cash and fixed interest investments, the good news investment.
Australia is still set fair in the Coal and gold producers sector.
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No problems, no worries, as President George W Bush has said that the American Economy will recover in the second half of 2008.
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There we are, further good news, as US interest rates fall.
Hey Noirua,
Ha ha... Are you the only one posting in here..
I'm with you by the way with the little rays of sunshine around the place, but it's pretty hard to avoid the 'Doom & Gloom' at the moment... it seems to be the flavour of the month (or should I say YTD) .. It's a frenzy of 'bad news' reporting.. Not one for conspiracy theories, but I'm surprised that the 'financial terrorists trying to take out the US' haven't rated a mention yet..
Keep up the good work and hold the faith brother..
Regards,
Buster
Ha ha... Are you the only one posting in here..
I'm with you by the way with the little rays of sunshine around the place, but it's pretty hard to avoid the 'Doom & Gloom' at the moment... it seems to be the flavour of the month (or should I say YTD) .. It's a frenzy of 'bad news' reporting.. Not one for conspiracy theories, but I'm surprised that the 'financial terrorists trying to take out the US' haven't rated a mention yet..
Keep up the good work and hold the faith brother..
Regards,
Buster
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More good news for markets as USA oil inventories are expected to show marked rises and oil is set to drop below US$100 a barrel. A reversal to commodity prices will also give some relief from the upward spiral and should fall to sensible levels.
Even President George W Bush is more upbeat after polls show that more than 50% of the nation are now with him on his view that the allied forces are winning in Iraq.
Don't be all grim faced out there, plenty to smile about.
Even President George W Bush is more upbeat after polls show that more than 50% of the nation are now with him on his view that the allied forces are winning in Iraq.
Don't be all grim faced out there, plenty to smile about.
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Yes, the strength of the United States is important and the need to reduce the deficit. Sure, signs of reduced growth in the States but the weak US Dollar has managed to weaken imports into the US.
All this should eventually lead to more sensible growth figures in China and India.
Australia, well, all this should prevent the Aussie Dollar from strengthening further. Miners can take lower prices provided this happens.
All this should eventually lead to more sensible growth figures in China and India.
Australia, well, all this should prevent the Aussie Dollar from strengthening further. Miners can take lower prices provided this happens.
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The charts haven't pasted but you can see them here
(Thanks to Moondog)
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=641363&msgno=2683015#2683015
Out With The Bad News�In With The Good News! Years
Cliff Droke
Investors have had to endure a tremendous onslaught of horrendous news that has shaken the financial sector to the core. One pundit likened the past few months to flying a hang glider in a hurricane. That�s how it has felt to all of us as bad news begat more bad news�which in turn drove the financial markets lower.
The good news is that the winds have now diminished and the dark clouds are on the verge of lifting. It�s time now to focus on the positive things to come instead of dwelling on the negatives of yester-year. That�s the message the stock market is telling to anyone who will listen.
Last week I asserted that an interim bottom process was already well underway for the U.S. stock market. The action and events of the last several days have thus far confirmed the accuracy of that statement. Market psychology doesn�t lie, and neither do the technical indicators. Put/call and short interest ratio measures have hit extremes normally associated with dominant market lows. Just look at the latest reading in the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio along with the 15-day moving average. The latest signals are bullish from a contrarian stance.
The market�s message is clear: It�s time to start looking for better days ahead instead of focusing on the fears of yesterday.
Meanwhile, the wave form pattern for the S&P 500 index is looking more and more constructive by the week. The internal momentum configuration for the NYSE broad market is also showing improvement. The tape itself is starting to clear up and the fact that the market was able to hold above its lows in the past several days in the face of horrendous, earth-shattering news is evidence enough from a tape reading standpoint that the market has already discounted the worst news and is looking forward to better days.
Smart traders are those who get in line with the market�s future outlook, not the past. While the average retail investor embraces a rear-view mirror approach to the market and is afraid of his own shadow right now, the corporate insiders have been loading up on shares of their own companies. This is the message of the Gambill Oscillator, which measures what corporate executives of the Russell 3000 companies are doing with their company�s shares. The insiders were seen busily accumulating stocks during the past few weeks in anticipation of an interim bottom and eventual turnaround. Their prescience should soon be rewarded.
To give you some idea of just how bearish the average investor has been in just the past 7-10 days, take a look at the following chart.
This shows that the retail investor crowd was almost unanimous in its belief that another down-leg was beginning and that more financial catastrophes are on the way. My own in-house investor sentiment poll registered an astounding 90% bearish reading last week, with only one respondent claiming to be bullish! This is the highest reading of bears versus bulls my weekly poll has shown in the past 15 months.
While many respondents to my previous article suggested to me that �contrarianism no longer works,� I would beg to differ. The market action of just the last few days in the face of the Bear Stearns debacle should be sufficient to convince the skeptics that this market hasn�t run out of lives yet! The Fed�s responsiveness to the financial crisis in providing abundant liquidity will go a long way in preventing the sort of meltdown that many pundits are predicting.
Speaking of liquidity, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate 75 basis points this week and brought the target rate down to 2.50. That�s good news from a monetary liquidity standpoint and already the yield curve has shown tremendous improvement over the past few weeks. This means it�s only a matter of time (perhaps 3-4 months) before the economy starts showing improvement. While everyone from Wall Street analysts to Main Street observers continue wringing their hands over the talk of recession, most have completely missed the undeniable signs that recovery is on its way.
Just take a look at the extraordinary trend in the yield curve in the past few weeks. Cut this chart out and paste it to your forehead: This is the biggest story for the financial markets and the economy right now and almost no one is talking about it. Everyone is too busy crying over spilt milk concerning the economic slowdown that they�ve forgotten how to look ahead to the future. They�re all still looking backward instead of forward, which is what counts where the market is concerned.
A headline from the Financial Times newspaper on March 17, seemed to capture what most investors are feeling right now: �Wall Street waits for the next domino to fall.� On the front page of the March 18 issue of FT there was a graphic depiction of dominoes toppling along with the headline, �After Bear: turmoil in the markets.� The financial press has gone out of its way to evoke the image of the toppling domino effect in the financial markets. They did the same thing 10 years ago back in 1998 with the LTCM debacle and Asian currency crisis. If you�ve ever taken a course in logic or rhetoric then you are probably aware of the fallacy of reasoning known as �The Domino Fallacy.� If history provides any lessons for us, the current crisis will turn out to be yet another domino fallacy.
I normally don�t put much emphasis on the weekly Investor�s Intelligence sentiment poll since I find AAII to be more instructive in getting a read on short-term investor sentiment. Normally this is true since Investor�s Intelligence measures what newsletter writers are saying, as opposed to what independent investors are feeling. However, during sustained down markets or protracted trading ranges, Investor�s Intelligence has an advantage over AAII because this is when even the most perma-bull newsletter writers start questioning their faith in the stock market.
Recently, a study by Mike Burke and John Gray, published by Investors Intelligence, made the following observations:
�The sharp increase in advisor pessimism could be blamed on tumbling index action and the increased belief that the economy is in a recession�.The spread between the bulls and bears is -12.2%, a sharp drop from +5.3% a week ago. This is also the first negative difference since October 2002�.�
Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles comments on this finding are worth repeating: �The plurality of bears over bulls today, an apparently meager 12.2%, is huge on a relative basis. It is the highest plurality of bears over bulls since October 11th, 2002 (14.8%). But before that, you have to go back to January 6th, 1995, to find another plurality of bears over bulls greater than today's reading of 12.2%. For over 13 years, there has been such a pent-up and persistent bullishness among advisers that this is only the second plurality of bears over bulls over 12% in the past 13 years.�
Now we come to the $64 million question: who will you listen to now? The �stopped clock� pessimists and media pundits who have been preaching financial doom and gloom since the last major bottom in 2002? They were correct from October 2007 to January 2008, but that�s a mere drop in the bucket compared to the years they missed. If they�re wrong about the 6-12 month outlook (and the evidence strongly suggests they are) then they�ll end up giving back whatever gains were made from those four months, and then some more.
You can allow yourself to be influenced by the daily news headlines along with everyone else and be whipsawed left and right along the way. You can also choose to listen to the tape, which tells all. T The market�s message is undeniable in the face of terrible news and trader sentiment: it�s holding its own in spite of the unending deluge of bad news and the internals are showing improvement on an actual basis as well as on a rate of change basis.
As the interim bottoming process continues, the market�s undeniable message is that better days are ahead -- and with it will come an end to the endless stream of bad news and a better economic and financial market outlook. Are you prepared to take advantage of it?
Clif Droke
March 23, 2008
Clif Droke is the editor of the three times weekly Momentum Strategies Report newsletter, published since 1997, which covers U.S. equity markets and various stock sectors, natural resources, money supply and bank credit trends, the dollar and the U.S. economy. The forecasts are made using a unique proprietary blend of analytical methods involving internal momentum and moving average systems, as well as securities lending trends. He is also the author of numerous books, including "How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits." For more information visit www.clifdroke.com
(Thanks to Moondog)
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=641363&msgno=2683015#2683015
Out With The Bad News�In With The Good News! Years
Cliff Droke
Investors have had to endure a tremendous onslaught of horrendous news that has shaken the financial sector to the core. One pundit likened the past few months to flying a hang glider in a hurricane. That�s how it has felt to all of us as bad news begat more bad news�which in turn drove the financial markets lower.
The good news is that the winds have now diminished and the dark clouds are on the verge of lifting. It�s time now to focus on the positive things to come instead of dwelling on the negatives of yester-year. That�s the message the stock market is telling to anyone who will listen.
Last week I asserted that an interim bottom process was already well underway for the U.S. stock market. The action and events of the last several days have thus far confirmed the accuracy of that statement. Market psychology doesn�t lie, and neither do the technical indicators. Put/call and short interest ratio measures have hit extremes normally associated with dominant market lows. Just look at the latest reading in the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio along with the 15-day moving average. The latest signals are bullish from a contrarian stance.
The market�s message is clear: It�s time to start looking for better days ahead instead of focusing on the fears of yesterday.
Meanwhile, the wave form pattern for the S&P 500 index is looking more and more constructive by the week. The internal momentum configuration for the NYSE broad market is also showing improvement. The tape itself is starting to clear up and the fact that the market was able to hold above its lows in the past several days in the face of horrendous, earth-shattering news is evidence enough from a tape reading standpoint that the market has already discounted the worst news and is looking forward to better days.
Smart traders are those who get in line with the market�s future outlook, not the past. While the average retail investor embraces a rear-view mirror approach to the market and is afraid of his own shadow right now, the corporate insiders have been loading up on shares of their own companies. This is the message of the Gambill Oscillator, which measures what corporate executives of the Russell 3000 companies are doing with their company�s shares. The insiders were seen busily accumulating stocks during the past few weeks in anticipation of an interim bottom and eventual turnaround. Their prescience should soon be rewarded.
To give you some idea of just how bearish the average investor has been in just the past 7-10 days, take a look at the following chart.
This shows that the retail investor crowd was almost unanimous in its belief that another down-leg was beginning and that more financial catastrophes are on the way. My own in-house investor sentiment poll registered an astounding 90% bearish reading last week, with only one respondent claiming to be bullish! This is the highest reading of bears versus bulls my weekly poll has shown in the past 15 months.
While many respondents to my previous article suggested to me that �contrarianism no longer works,� I would beg to differ. The market action of just the last few days in the face of the Bear Stearns debacle should be sufficient to convince the skeptics that this market hasn�t run out of lives yet! The Fed�s responsiveness to the financial crisis in providing abundant liquidity will go a long way in preventing the sort of meltdown that many pundits are predicting.
Speaking of liquidity, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate 75 basis points this week and brought the target rate down to 2.50. That�s good news from a monetary liquidity standpoint and already the yield curve has shown tremendous improvement over the past few weeks. This means it�s only a matter of time (perhaps 3-4 months) before the economy starts showing improvement. While everyone from Wall Street analysts to Main Street observers continue wringing their hands over the talk of recession, most have completely missed the undeniable signs that recovery is on its way.
Just take a look at the extraordinary trend in the yield curve in the past few weeks. Cut this chart out and paste it to your forehead: This is the biggest story for the financial markets and the economy right now and almost no one is talking about it. Everyone is too busy crying over spilt milk concerning the economic slowdown that they�ve forgotten how to look ahead to the future. They�re all still looking backward instead of forward, which is what counts where the market is concerned.
A headline from the Financial Times newspaper on March 17, seemed to capture what most investors are feeling right now: �Wall Street waits for the next domino to fall.� On the front page of the March 18 issue of FT there was a graphic depiction of dominoes toppling along with the headline, �After Bear: turmoil in the markets.� The financial press has gone out of its way to evoke the image of the toppling domino effect in the financial markets. They did the same thing 10 years ago back in 1998 with the LTCM debacle and Asian currency crisis. If you�ve ever taken a course in logic or rhetoric then you are probably aware of the fallacy of reasoning known as �The Domino Fallacy.� If history provides any lessons for us, the current crisis will turn out to be yet another domino fallacy.
I normally don�t put much emphasis on the weekly Investor�s Intelligence sentiment poll since I find AAII to be more instructive in getting a read on short-term investor sentiment. Normally this is true since Investor�s Intelligence measures what newsletter writers are saying, as opposed to what independent investors are feeling. However, during sustained down markets or protracted trading ranges, Investor�s Intelligence has an advantage over AAII because this is when even the most perma-bull newsletter writers start questioning their faith in the stock market.
Recently, a study by Mike Burke and John Gray, published by Investors Intelligence, made the following observations:
�The sharp increase in advisor pessimism could be blamed on tumbling index action and the increased belief that the economy is in a recession�.The spread between the bulls and bears is -12.2%, a sharp drop from +5.3% a week ago. This is also the first negative difference since October 2002�.�
Peter Eliades of Stock Market Cycles comments on this finding are worth repeating: �The plurality of bears over bulls today, an apparently meager 12.2%, is huge on a relative basis. It is the highest plurality of bears over bulls since October 11th, 2002 (14.8%). But before that, you have to go back to January 6th, 1995, to find another plurality of bears over bulls greater than today's reading of 12.2%. For over 13 years, there has been such a pent-up and persistent bullishness among advisers that this is only the second plurality of bears over bulls over 12% in the past 13 years.�
Now we come to the $64 million question: who will you listen to now? The �stopped clock� pessimists and media pundits who have been preaching financial doom and gloom since the last major bottom in 2002? They were correct from October 2007 to January 2008, but that�s a mere drop in the bucket compared to the years they missed. If they�re wrong about the 6-12 month outlook (and the evidence strongly suggests they are) then they�ll end up giving back whatever gains were made from those four months, and then some more.
You can allow yourself to be influenced by the daily news headlines along with everyone else and be whipsawed left and right along the way. You can also choose to listen to the tape, which tells all. T The market�s message is undeniable in the face of terrible news and trader sentiment: it�s holding its own in spite of the unending deluge of bad news and the internals are showing improvement on an actual basis as well as on a rate of change basis.
As the interim bottoming process continues, the market�s undeniable message is that better days are ahead -- and with it will come an end to the endless stream of bad news and a better economic and financial market outlook. Are you prepared to take advantage of it?
Clif Droke
March 23, 2008
Clif Droke is the editor of the three times weekly Momentum Strategies Report newsletter, published since 1997, which covers U.S. equity markets and various stock sectors, natural resources, money supply and bank credit trends, the dollar and the U.S. economy. The forecasts are made using a unique proprietary blend of analytical methods involving internal momentum and moving average systems, as well as securities lending trends. He is also the author of numerous books, including "How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits." For more information visit www.clifdroke.com
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Very good news for markets, they're closed until Tuesday.
Why's that a good news ?
The good news should be that the market is going up on tuesday
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No need for Australia to take the lead in opening for the week. Handed the baton over.
Wall Street closed nearly 200 points up and that following a jump in Taiwan. Bloomberg TV mentioned that Saudi Arabia are now about to increase oil supplies and a few other supplies are coming onstream. Even more good news and Bear Stearns investors get $10 per share, not just $2.
Wall Street closed nearly 200 points up and that following a jump in Taiwan. Bloomberg TV mentioned that Saudi Arabia are now about to increase oil supplies and a few other supplies are coming onstream. Even more good news and Bear Stearns investors get $10 per share, not just $2.
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A very cheery period that proves how right this Good News thread is. Everything gradually coming back together in the States and it's forward with confidence in the second half. Whilst you wait have a
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Thank heavens for Australia. The coal sector is booming and set to continue for years. The west will be hit hard, care not, remember, thou is on the Australian team, the winning tide.
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The tidal flow continues and it's all Australia's way, in the Iron Ore and Coal sectors.
The mining sector is now saving people in the outback as the terrible drought continues. Renting out properties to mining staff.