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Boeing (likely) bailout. TBTF
This is the lesson from LEH. Do not allow pivotal firms to fail. Not saying it's right, just the lesson learned from 2008.
jog on
duc
Update. I believe this approach is wrong - just looking at the discount I mean. Sold BA today with ~20% loss.
What I thought:
- BA fell from 350 to 160 - looks like a good discount.
- It's a cornerstone of US Aircraft Industry, Aircrafts are not going to vanish, it will recover.
- It's a cornerstone of US Aircraft Industry, Government won't allow it to fail.
Things I din't realised at the time:
- It has terrible fundamentals EV/EBIT: doesn't even exist, Return on Capital Employed: -4.19% Price to Tangible Book Value: -3.421 Pietrovsky F-Score 1. That is scary, BA seems to be so inflated that it still has a long way to go down.
- Aircraft Industry will do fine, Boeing will do fine, and if needed the Government will rescue it, I'm 98% sure about that. The problem is - all this won't guarantee you will keep your money. It will be bankrupted, assets taken away from you and reborn as a new company and you won't get a single share in that new and wonderfull reborn Boeing. And shares of old Boeing you have - will go to 0. Like they did with GE.
- I tried to buy PUT options for next year, but they have insane price of ~27$ like 1/4 of a stock price, doesn't make sense to buy it at such price.
- So... I sold it today, with the loss....
- And bought some cheap Boeing out of money CALL options with expiration in year 22. Well, not today, I bought it a week ago when the stock fell to 95. I realised then that call options are far better idea than the stock. Because - I'm not betting on a little recovery, I'm betting Boeing going back to 300-400-500 range, and CALL options in that range are cheap, so if I'm betting on such huge growth - it doesn't make sense to keep the stocks at all, far out of money CALL options will do just fine.
@noirua , you have been pushing NASDAQ:TLSA for a while.What is your reasoning? Are you involved in that research?Tiziana Lifesciences Develops Novel Investigational Treatment For Patients Infected with COVID-19 Utilizing Direct Delivery of Anti-Interlukin-6-Receptor Monoclonal Antibodies
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1100...antiinterlukin6receptor-monoclonal-antibodies
NEW YORK and LONDON, April 09, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tiziana Life Sciences plc ( NASDAQ:TLSA) (“Tiziana” or the “Company”), a biotechnology company focused on innovative therapeutics for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, announced today that it has developed investigational new technology to treat COVID-19 infections, which consists of direct delivery of anti-IL-6 receptor (anti-IL-6R) monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) into the lungs using a handheld inhaler or nebulizer. Development of this novel technology is a step forward toward expediting development of TZLS-501, a fully-human anti-interleukin-6 receptor (anti-IL6R) monoclonal antibody (mAb) for treatment of patients infected with COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) coronavirus. The Company believes the technology could also be applicable for use with other FDA approved mAbs and drugs. The Company has submitted a provisional patent application for the delivery technology.
The thread is "Good International Stocks to Buy". Do your own research as the share is highly volatile and particularly so in Pre-Market and After-Market trading. Intra-day on Thursday the shares rose over 100% in the states@noirua , you have been pushing NASDAQ:TLSA for a while.What is your reasoning? Are you involved in that research?
From an external point of view, i i s the link between the virus and their work as just at best fortious.they were not working on this type of illness were they? I am no expert and maybe it could help, as an old antimalarial compounds does..sheer luck
Anyway, interested to know the reasons behind your support
Mining share tips: a big one and five small ones 29th June 2022 13:10 Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/mining-share-tips-big-one-and-five-small-ones-ii524513?utm_source=newsletter%20&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-WKLY-ENGAGE-weekend_round_up_020722&utm_content=newsletter%20&spMailingID=20065198&spUserID=ODIzODEzNDUxMzE0S0&spJobID=2030314564&spReportId=MjAzMDMxNDU2NAS2 Alongside iron ore, nickel is out of favour as stainless steel mills destock and lithium is also shunned due to the prospect of more supply on the back of last year’s price spike. |
My view is i do not see oil go down that much if gas coal stays that high: power plant will burn oil...people kerosene in tgeir frozen german flats etc.Current Oil trend is down though, I think the Oil stock money is already made in the last few months...
View attachment 146670
But there might be another opportunity brewing in the Energy sector. Given that Europe is going into winter and will need gas for heating, yet they are at the mercy of Putin cutting off the Russian gas pipeline. So, I hypothesise that Gas and LNG stocks may continue to do well, and Natural Gas prices are staying elevated...
View attachment 146671
So if we find the right Gas/LNG stocks, we may be able to have a speculation. Could be international stocks or even local gas/LNG stocks perhaps ?
Current Oil trend is down though, I think the Oil stock money is already made in the last few months...
View attachment 146670
But there might be another opportunity brewing in the Energy sector. Given that Europe is going into winter and will need gas for heating, yet they are at the mercy of Putin cutting off the Russian gas pipeline. So, I hypothesise that Gas and LNG stocks may continue to do well, and Natural Gas prices are staying elevated...
View attachment 146671
So if we find the right Gas/LNG stocks, we may be able to have a speculation. Could be international stocks or even local gas/LNG stocks perhaps ?
August 22, 2022 The war in Ukraine continues to impact the global crude oil prices, which averaged well above the USD100 /bbl mark in July. Fluctuations in short-term signposts compared to the prior month include:
- Oil prices. The average Brent crude oil spot price declined to USD112/bbl in July from USD123/bbl in June. Lower oil demand in July underpinned by high inflation and high interest rates offset the effect of supply-side disruptions
- Global oil demand. Global liquids demand decreased by 0.5 MMb/d m-o-m in July to 98.83 MMb/d. Most of the demand decrease was attributed to the US and India
- Commercial inventories. Global commercial inventories increased by 67 million barrels in July to 4.4 billion barrels globally, mostly driven by SPR releases from OECD countries
- OPEC 10 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 10 production increased slightly to 30.1 MMb/d, an increase of 0.2 MMb/d m-o-m. Overall, OPEC 10 output is up by 2.21 MMb/d y-o-y and is very close to reaching January 2020 production levels
- Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production increased by 0.5 MMb/d m-o-m in July to 57.7 MMb/d. This implies a 0.8 MMb/d y-o-y increase in non-OPEC production. As of July 2022, Russian supply has also almost fully recovered to the pre-conflict levels
- US shale oil production. US shale oil production continued to rise slightly in July, reaching over 8.9 MMb/d; it remains below pre-pandemic levels of 9.2 MMb/d. Continued m-o-m increase in the number of active onshore drilling rigs indicates an ongoing rise in activity
- Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya decreased by 0.3MMb/d m-o-m to 3.6 MMb/d in July. Supply from Libya is 0.7 MMb/d lower y-o-y due to ongoing domestic geopolitical tensions, which have affected output
- Market sentiment. The war in Ukraine continues to impact the global crude oil prices, which averaged well above the USD100 /bbl mark in July. Meanwhile, Iran has further delayed a nuclear deal with EU, looking to use the opportunity provided by instability in the global energy markets and push its demands in nuclear talks.
Oil Market Report - July 2022
Rarely has the outlook for oil markets been more uncertain. A worsening macroeconomic outlook and fears of recession are weighing on market sentiment, while there are ongoing risks on the supply side. For now, weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in advanced economies and resilient Russian supply has loosened headline balances. Benchmark crude futures have tumbled by more than $20/bbl since early June, trading below $100/bbl at the time of writing. Yet, persistent physical crude price tensions and extreme refinery margins highlight underlying imbalances for crude and products supply.
- Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in China are providing a partial offset. Global oil demand growth has been marginally reduced to 1.7 mb/d in 2022, reaching 99.2 mb/d. A further 2.1 mb/d gain is expected in 2023, led by a strong growth trajectory in non-OECD countries.
- World oil supply jumped by 690 kb/d to 99.5 mb/d in June as resilient Russian production and higher output from the US and Canada more than offset steep maintenance-related losses from Kazakhstan. Production is expected to rise by 1.8 mb/d by end-year to reach 101.3 mb/d. Global oil supply is set to average 100.1 mb/d in 2022 before hitting an annual record of 101.1 mb/d in 2023.
- Refinery throughputs rose by 500 kb/d in June, to 79.2 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d above a year ago. A number of outages and tight spare capacity outside of China meant that product supply failed to keep up with the seasonal increase in demand. Product cracks nevertheless fell from records highs observed in late May, but were on average substantially higher on a monthly basis.
- Russian oil exports in June fell by 250 kb/d m-o-m to 7.4 mb/d, the lowest since August 2021. This time, the decline was led by crude oil, while product shipments were relatively stable at 2.4 mb/d. Meanwhile, export revenues increased by $700 million m-o-m on higher oil prices, to $20.4 billion, 40% above last year’s average.
- Global observed oil inventories rose by a modest 5 mb in May as a sharp increase in non-OECD crude stocks was offset by lower OECD stocks and oil on the water. OECD industry stocks rose by 15.2 mb to 2 691 mb, still 301.3 mb below the 2017-2021 average, helped by the release of 32.1 mb of government stocks. Preliminary data for June show total OECD stocks built by 22 mb.
- Benchmark crude oil futures plunged by more than $20/bbl in June as a worsening economic outlook fuelled a broad market sell-off. At the time of writing, Brent was below $100/bbl while WTI traded at around $96/bbl. Price premiums for physical barrels widened on rising seasonal demand for both crude and products while supply remains constrained.
Global natural gas demand set for slow growth in coming years as turmoil strains an already tight market
The downward revision in gas demand growth in the coming years is mostly the result of weaker economic activity and less switching from coal or oil to gas. Only one-fifth of it comes from efficiency gains and substituting renewables for gas, highlighting the need for greater progress on clean energy transitions. Faster roll-outs of renewable power generation and stronger efforts to use energy more efficiently would ease pressures on energy prices and help price-sensitive emerging markets access gas supplies that can deliver rapid improvements to air quality and carbon intensity.
“Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine is seriously disrupting gas markets that were already showing signs of tightness,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori. “We are now seeing inevitable price spikes as countries around the world compete for LNG shipments, but the most sustainable response to today’s global energy crisis is stronger efforts and policies to use energy more efficiently and to accelerate clean energy transitions.”
The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for half of the expected growth in global gas demand to 2025. In terms of sectors, industry is expected to account for 60% of global demand. However, those projections are subject to downward risks from high prices and potentially lower economic growth.
The European Union’s commitment to phase out gas imports from Russia – historically, its largest supplier – is having global repercussions, as Europe’s surging demand for LNG draws in deliveries initially intended for other regions. The Gas Market Report’s base case assumes that Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU will fall by over 55% between 2021 and 2025, but the report also considers an accelerated case in which they fall by over 75%.
LNG export capacity additions are set to slow down in the next three years as a result of curtailed investment plans during a period of lower prices in the mid-2010s and construction delays stemming from Covid-19 lockdowns. This raises the risk of prolonged tight market conditions. While there has been a recent surge in LNG investment decisions, the resulting infrastructure will not be operational until after 2025.
Investing in oil is for the brave and those in the know, volatility may create opportunity and heartbreak.
LNG consumption has increased as countries move away from oil, but supply is tight. This causes governments and industry to innovate and create solutions.
Current data indicates that oil production is increasing and consumption is decreasing.
Two of the biggest consumers USA and India have recorded a decrease in demand for the black gold, this has occurred while Russia cuts supply, world economic downturn, and new energy sources increasing over the past decade due to environmental and security reasons.
Besides short term trading (which you have already said is your focus with these stocks), I think there is still a lot of good money to be made in e oil and gas industry, but of course it’s a volatile business, so I think it is definitely going to become the realm of the long term investors.Current Oil trend is down though, I think the Oil stock money is already made in the last few months...
View attachment 146670
But there might be another opportunity brewing in the Energy sector. Given that Europe is going into winter and will need gas for heating, yet they are at the mercy of Putin cutting off the Russian gas pipeline. So, I hypothesise that Gas and LNG stocks may continue to do well, and Natural Gas prices are staying elevated...
View attachment 146671
So if we find the right Gas/LNG stocks, we may be able to have a speculation. Could be international stocks or even local gas/LNG stocks perhaps ?
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