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Update. I believe this approach is wrong - just looking at the discount I mean. Sold BA today with ~20% loss.
What I thought:
- BA fell from 350 to 160 - looks like a good discount.
- It's a cornerstone of US Aircraft Industry, Aircrafts are not going to vanish, it will recover.
- It's a cornerstone of US Aircraft Industry, Government won't allow it to fail.
Things I din't realised at the time:
- It has terrible fundamentals EV/EBIT: doesn't even exist, Return on Capital Employed: -4.19% Price to Tangible Book Value: -3.421 Pietrovsky F-Score 1. That is scary, BA seems to be so inflated that it still has a long way to go down.
- Aircraft Industry will do fine, Boeing will do fine, and if needed the Government will rescue it, I'm 98% sure about that. The problem is - all this won't guarantee you will keep your money. It will be bankrupted, assets taken away from you and reborn as a new company and you won't get a single share in that new and wonderfull reborn Boeing. And shares of old Boeing you have - will go to 0. Like they did with GE.
- I tried to buy PUT options for next year, but they have insane price of ~27$ like 1/4 of a stock price, doesn't make sense to buy it at such price.
- So... I sold it today, with the loss....
- And bought some cheap Boeing out of money CALL options with expiration in year 22. Well, not today, I bought it a week ago when the stock fell to 95. I realised then that call options are far better idea than the stock. Because - I'm not betting on a little recovery, I'm betting Boeing going back to 300-400-500 range, and CALL options in that range are cheap, so if I'm betting on such huge growth - it doesn't make sense to keep the stocks at all, far out of money CALL options will do just fine.
Boeing (likely) bailout. TBTF
This is the lesson from LEH. Do not allow pivotal firms to fail. Not saying it's right, just the lesson learned from 2008.
jog on
duc