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Gold Daytraders

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Joules MM1 said:
View attachment 66395

more horse radish less like Rorschach

out of sync ....sic!
Click to expand...

Lots of jawboning and speculation about more actions on the part of Japanese banks....Started with a Bloomy survey results....that was 11:30 am our time here and it flushed the shorts out of the Asian markets quick smart....
 
CanOz said:
Lots of jawboning and speculation about more actions on the part of Japanese banks....Started with a Bloomy survey results....that was 11:30 am our time here and it flushed the shorts out of the Asian markets quick smart....
Click to expand...

kinda fits the pricing.......i'm liking a rising DX from this mornings ram-raid
 
referring to the above image, the images below clearly show metals may encounter a tawdry pullback
it would be also fair to say we are not at such an extreme that the trade has too many on one side of the boat, yet

relatively speaking we're at the top of a small contract-size peak, having completed one leg up,
probably requiring a leg down (liking 1185's) and then a new high leg to complete the current bounce

here are a cupla images that should invoke thought if youre stuck in emotive logic mode (longside)
by being stretched strong longs become weak longs

this is from a cupla weeks ago with relative positions


looking at the extremes of sentiment rep'd by contract size, it would be fair to say retail is fairly manic already

even tho price had halted the climb from 1046 (front month cfd) you can see
the contract sizes reflects expectation and while (some) commercials
are hedging, managers and retail are (mostly) not:
 
further look at sentiment as a dichotomy of price..
for gold this tends to imply the easy directional trade is all but done, too
expect more shlop and nasty chops



 
cycles

interesting occurence is the rotation of the 144 month low to high of the bull phase late 1999 thru 2011

of course this depends on whether you consider the july 1999 $US251 low as THE low or september take-off ($US254 low) as the significant cyclic trigger, as this shifts the rotation of the monthly cycle

but, lets say the 144 cycle (that's the one that effected the XJO too at 6000 level) from the september take-off is valid and is currently still in effect, that offers a smaller rotation within the same cycle (extended)

here are the two cycles
the first 144 month cycle is the original bull phase and the secondary cycle maybe an echo, whatever it is, there is clearly a reason to think the cycle is beyond mere coincidence or maybe causal of the current pullback within the current multi-week bounce

i'm not looking to take any meaningful positions in this supposition, yet, the timing and cyclic outlook are worth reviewing each weekend so as not to get caught in the 30second-bar bias...much



 
to speech or not to speech, central bank cut n paste comments be the answer


thanks, Janet
 
t's a total shock," said Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors. "From currencies to equities to everything - you can see the reaction in the markets. I can't believe this. It's very disappointing."
Click to expand...

Yep 'no more mojo'
 
$XGD constits are in uber bully mode ....time to take a pause ?



S&P/ASX ALL ORDINARIES GOLD (SUB INDUSTRY)
Price
Change
Last updated
Index Details
3935.70
135.9(3.58%)
29 Apr 2016 - 2:54PM
XGD - GOLD

Share prices delayed by 20 minutes
ASX Code Last Price % Move 52wk High 52wk Low P/E Market Cap
ASX Code Last Price % Move 52wk High 52wk Low P/E Market Cap
AGG 4.100 9.04 4.300 1.500 -0.75 365,751,836
AQG 3.400 5.26 3.450 2.070 15.53 229,647,618
BDR 0.315 3.28 0.360 0.100 -5.68 332,346,275
DCN 1.945 0.00 2.090 0.377 -20.47 257,432,914
DRM 0.980 2.62 1.000 0.390 7.87 302,190,949
EVN 1.940 3.74 2.140 0.890 29.89 2,848,080,673
GOR 0.477 3.70 0.540 0.290 -65.34 333,899,145
KCN 0.452 6.35 0.865 0.220 -0.75 101,060,392
NCM 18.955 3.41 19.110 10.550 31.80 14,529,215,455
NST 3.825 4.22 4.070 1.805 21.61 2,295,800,530
NWF 0.565 0.00 0.990 0.555 -58.25 111,069,584
OGC 4.390 5.02 4.410 1.995 22.91 2,671,377,935
PRU 0.570 -6.56 0.680 0.270 -17.33 464,804,018
RMS 0.420 5.00 0.455 0.100 5.85 198,968,384
RRL 2.895 4.89 2.930 1.070 16.98 1,446,867,718
RSG 0.970 7.78 0.982 0.227 -4.33 622,335,504
SAR 1.060 0.95 1.165 0.335 54.92 848,847,250
SBM 2.320 3.11 2.680 0.380 8.37 1,148,637,858
SLR 0.365 5.80 0.382 0.125 -2.32 183,680,399
TBR 5.620 0.36 5.620 3.340 19.35 281,016,989

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/indices/share-listing/XGD/sandpasx-all-ordinaries-gold-sub-
 
$DX has been taking sells like a chump....xau/$GOLD failing to make good on the action - soonaz dx tics up, sells will likely step on weak gold longs
 
$XGD in pause mode, gold in retracement mode, longs would do well to pare back

 
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