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Gold Daytraders

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As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of Gold dated 2014.06.10, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1333.332 and the price is above 5-day moving. Currently in long term time frames such as monthly and weekly price is above 5-day moving average that shows a consistent uptrend in long period of time and there is not any clear reason about descending of price in these time frames.

According to the formed movements, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ideal ratios of 50 and 200 between the bottom price of 1240.549 and the top price of 1333.332 that warns changing price direction from D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and in divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the current top price and warns about more descends. Generally according to the current situation in 4H time frame until the top price of 1333.332 is preserved, price will have the potential of descending but according to the potential of ascending in long period of time, the descending of price is temporary and unstable.

 
Technical analysis of Gold dated 29.12.2014

Price since the end of 2011 till now was in strong and consistent downtrend with a little price reformation and sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1131.335.Price has formed a bottom price(Spinning Top Pattern) with reaching to the specified supportive levels(Up Trendline and d point of harmonic pattern) in the picture below and it has stopped from more descend and has started a little ascend with shows exit of some sellers from their trades.

As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 1131.335 and the top price of 1389.947 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator in Monthly time frame (also in daily time frame) is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles.Generally until the third point of Up Trendline is preserved, the price has the potential for ascend and reformation in this Metal.
 

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Technical analysis of Gold dated 13.02.2015

Gold was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent days that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 1216.56.Price has been stopped from more descend with reaching to the specified support level (conversion level r=s) and In the range of formed bottom price there are Inverted hammer and Harami candlestick patterns that shows the possibility for formation of a successful bottom price in continuing ascending trend(need to be confirmed by a bullish candle)

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 1307.35 and bottom price of 1216.56 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 78.6 and 127.2 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the D point of this pattern by the next cycle and warns about the potential of ascending of the price during the next days.Generally until the bottom price of 1216.56 is preserved, there is a potential for ascending and price reformation in this Metal.


 
Chris,

impulsive bid; rather than (just) breaking the level, sellers hitting the strength and a fake move thru that level

a follow-thru on clean impulsive action is merely a chart pointer that we have further to go in that immediate direction and part of the reason for posting to this thread is to stay on course with/via actual trading (regardless of the platform)

impulsive selling we saw into the low with trend-following managers ....so if the reverse is going on then it's likely we are seeing commercial hedgers not just unwinding what few shorts are open (STO) but buying to open longs (BTO)...so moving from STO positions thru to BTC to BTO
overwhelming the offer side in a clean manner

thanks


suggest you watch generic $DX to work with ideas you may already have
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
 
Joules MM1 said:
Chris,

impulsive bid; rather than (just) breaking the level, sellers hitting the strength and a fake move thru that level
Click to expand...

relative size and context

a break of the level i sited would alter a cuple things

all "things" are my perspective

the first thing is the context is not just an hourly or moment by moment play, rather, against the daily downtrend, the weekly downtrend, a cyclical downtrend in commodities, a probable monthly and quarterly downtrend in metals...another component maybe total liquidity, if participation is low it doesnt necessarily bode well for either side of the liquidity game (buy-side liquidity or sell-side liquidity and these two things are unknown to me, so, given the weekly context, i wanna be pdq at altering my opinion when i'm long)

so if we're to see a swing north of any significance there should be a distinct traffic in one direction at distinct levels where STO's are forced to cover and BTO's are pressing the game and in the scheme of things 1107 to 1075 is a pretty small range and deep pockets arent going to frig around playing subtle.....

so relatively speaking we should be looking like someone pressed the panic button on the way up like it was on the way down with specific levels that are going to be markers...in a decent upswing the impulsive moves have sellers in them with old emotive logic, this gang is opening small STO's and some players getting out at best available price...but they get consumed like tony montana snorting his final line...

but, like russian dolls and games within games and all that stuff, there are some levels that scream if-you-take-me-out-i'm-a-cheap-date

we havent done that......yet...working in both camps favour is that now we're in an inside game, building pressure
....and it;s a game that should be considered thus: if youre wrong GTFO !!

study of prob swing anecdotes https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...24462&page=167&p=876928&viewfull=1#post876928




what's clear in my noggin is probably like mud in yours, so, prompt away....everything's a learning curve

ideas
 
FOMC 4am aest

open pos's need to allow for the game that'll be played

a cupla :22_yikes: fakes would not surprise before we get underway
 
finagling around a bit.....with china pmi tomorrow you'lll wanna think about mondays open

if commercials are the least open shorts in a decade and small traders have flipped to bear mode (nett open sells)
then managers are just a reflex-behind in their trend-foollowing



 
$350? Shyzer! I'm gonna dump another 2 tonnes tonight - don't say I didn't warn you?

They might as well say $Zero and be done with it?

I skimmed through their paper - an old 'trader' and an academic - neither had much clue by the looks?
 
Uncle Festivus said:
$350? Shyzer! I'm gonna dump another 2 tonnes tonight - don't say I didn't warn you?

They might as well say $Zero and be done with it?

I skimmed through their paper - an old 'trader' and an academic - neither had much clue by the looks?
Click to expand...

we're still stuck in the frame work: $DX up $GOLD down

kinda-sorta looks good until I see all the move remain within the confines of previous swings

once we break those cycles all constraints are off and the muppets can thank the media for emptying their accounts for them

ratio 1:1 denotes immediate level to break
 
context and relative size

bigger picture review.....is this the start of the beginning of the bounce to end all bounces ?

let's review the rearview

arrows denote BTO
 
Joules MM1 said:
c.is this the start of the beginning of the bounce to end all bounces ?
Click to expand...

that's coy ......anyways

keep constant that we're still technically in a flag for lower price levels....and we're now technically in a bottoming phase

that's lingo for being trapped between to points with sharks
breaking 1102's in a strong bid with $DX heading south would be the first signal that this is a good long

 
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