Curious J ...... You have around 1285 pegged as a potential important level which is around the 6 month 50% zone ..... do you use the ratio from the recent swing high in late November to the mid December low as a potential clarification of that same area? .... just wondering as it fits with the recurring 4:3 ratio which I see a lot.
this is going to be clear as mud as i've done this so many times but trying to explain it in this type of medium is like an outback rally with a flat tyre ...have drawn on your chart thinking it might make a difference than me repeating with one of my own....see if it makes a difference
pros like halfway levels so that would add to a rotation level but the levels i first look for are relative structure moves, that means, if price moves back to a ratio as a measure of a previous swing in that direction, within the confines of one larger move and respects that level, thus returning to the larger swing (in this instance down), then that tells me a lot about risk/size and the type of price action to accompany the rotation ......the reason i prefer ratios for context is because theyre based on what people have done, it's in the print, so repetition is good thing whereas if that repetition suddenly does something different, that may tell me that a new game is already underway or about to be underway pronto ....and this is the major reason i place absolute Fib measures in low priority as Fibs are of themselves not provable, i mean, a level between two price points is of itself random (there are so many so how do you know the one youre looking at is correct, how do you know its reliable, if it has only two end points as its history and those two end points are themselves randomly chosen?)
2 things: even if that rotation occurs at that halfway it does not mean i am correct about the structure
secondly if the rotation is brushed aside then that action itself shifts the game back in favour (bids) and adds to the idea that a new game is underway and new players, with intent, have entered
we're still in the middle or midst of a large chop zone and we may need to retest/probe back the highs before the 2011 bear can resume...each step and each structure needs context within that larger bear context
its now a year since we went and revisited 1110 zone and nothing in the price action confirms we are in a bull trend, certainly in a typical way that i can see....maybe seasonal bias might hold gold up fro a few months
to quick summarise in this localised play, we have a cupla abc games and none of them confir trend action, rather a game of localised players and mm's staring at each other not being the first to make price discovery, but, clearly in oct/nov we had a lot of drivers change position and this was reflected in the kink pointed-to above in cot report and i am going to offer a counter-intuitive idea on this as we never know if the buying by commercials is a straight out long bet or an insurance bet for whatever yadda yadda and one way of telling that is by asking with the lifted volume and all transactions being balanced (someones buying all that elevated selling) then the price structure should reflect that by breaking the typical pattern that says if the price length does not break that 1285 level, as it is a typical weak lower high bounce, then, that action says the downtrend is probably back under way or at least we'll revisit last decembers low....conversely in the june thru sept period no one wanted to chase price up as printed in volume but retail was a keen chaser and now we've shaken out a lot of those retail with a 78.6% retrace of that june/sept swing so that makes this recent 78.6% retrace a significant level plus the move ended on a previous ratio swing of same size add to that the exchange in the recent series of hooks and we have come back into a zone that says we have attempted to print this zone as a floor (the vwap/vpoc crowd must be happy) so anecdotally i think we have good evidence of higher prices from fridays close but we must do two things: respect the 78.6% 1237 level and break thru 1285's ...as
muddy as that maybe it's crystal clear to me