Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Day Trading

Jump to new
as we've just hit an inverted ratio i've closed some of the shorts and scaled the others with a low-risk stop
(all stops are only low-risk due to being a pending order)

gold 127.2 ratio closed 071217.png
 
Joules MM1 said:
@barney

what's ratio

do you see people drive to work, park their car, work, get back in their cars and go home
that by its very definition is a set of ratios, a set of symmetries, a set of habits and repetitions

all ratios are active all the time
Click to expand...

Thanks for all the above detail Joules. Will re read and digest.... I certainly appreciate your use of ratios and totally agree with the concept ... I guess most humans responses and tendencies to repeat certain actions etc is programmed in which is fortunate when trying to assess a trading chart.

I think Gold is short term bearish as well and earlier in the year called an eventual drop back to around 1070-1080 over a few month period before we really get a sustained Long trade ..... that still looks unlikely in the short term.

I did notice the last few years have had a pattern of trade however and IF we get a decent drop into the end of December (which looks possible) it will be interesting if one of your ratio patterns sets up for a long in January ... Will try and throw a chart later tonight to highlight what I'm babbling about:) ... cheers.
 
while we're awaiting the outcome of this set,

let's look at some unfortunate individuals who are really struggling with the endearments of life (and no this one isnt about bitcoin....its much worse)

watch both ....if you can
 
the kink in the commercials v. managers makes me ask did that occur cos suddenly sells or sudden buys and i know youre thinking derr theyre matched and my response is derr either we get suddenly buy-side or sudden sell-side the question is is there an analogue to why here and why now?

the kink suggests managers did the rush to exit and commercials wanted more than just the available supply from that rush

gold timing charts 091217.png
 
Curious J ...... You have around 1285 pegged as a potential important level which is around the 6 month 50% zone ..... do you use the ratio from the recent swing high in late November to the mid December low as a potential clarification of that same area? .... just wondering as it fits with the recurring 4:3 ratio which I see a lot.GOLD 2017-12-17.jpg
 
barney said:
Curious J ...... You have around 1285 pegged as a potential important level which is around the 6 month 50% zone ..... do you use the ratio from the recent swing high in late November to the mid December low as a potential clarification of that same area? .... just wondering as it fits with the recurring 4:3 ratio which I see a lot.
Click to expand...

this is going to be clear as mud as i've done this so many times but trying to explain it in this type of medium is like an outback rally with a flat tyre ...have drawn on your chart thinking it might make a difference than me repeating with one of my own....see if it makes a difference

pros like halfway levels so that would add to a rotation level but the levels i first look for are relative structure moves, that means, if price moves back to a ratio as a measure of a previous swing in that direction, within the confines of one larger move and respects that level, thus returning to the larger swing (in this instance down), then that tells me a lot about risk/size and the type of price action to accompany the rotation ......the reason i prefer ratios for context is because theyre based on what people have done, it's in the print, so repetition is good thing whereas if that repetition suddenly does something different, that may tell me that a new game is already underway or about to be underway pronto ....and this is the major reason i place absolute Fib measures in low priority as Fibs are of themselves not provable, i mean, a level between two price points is of itself random (there are so many so how do you know the one youre looking at is correct, how do you know its reliable, if it has only two end points as its history and those two end points are themselves randomly chosen?)

2 things: even if that rotation occurs at that halfway it does not mean i am correct about the structure
secondly if the rotation is brushed aside then that action itself shifts the game back in favour (bids) and adds to the idea that a new game is underway and new players, with intent, have entered

we're still in the middle or midst of a large chop zone and we may need to retest/probe back the highs before the 2011 bear can resume...each step and each structure needs context within that larger bear context

its now a year since we went and revisited 1110 zone and nothing in the price action confirms we are in a bull trend, certainly in a typical way that i can see....maybe seasonal bias might hold gold up fro a few months

to quick summarise in this localised play, we have a cupla abc games and none of them confir trend action, rather a game of localised players and mm's staring at each other not being the first to make price discovery, but, clearly in oct/nov we had a lot of drivers change position and this was reflected in the kink pointed-to above in cot report and i am going to offer a counter-intuitive idea on this as we never know if the buying by commercials is a straight out long bet or an insurance bet for whatever yadda yadda and one way of telling that is by asking with the lifted volume and all transactions being balanced (someones buying all that elevated selling) then the price structure should reflect that by breaking the typical pattern that says if the price length does not break that 1285 level, as it is a typical weak lower high bounce, then, that action says the downtrend is probably back under way or at least we'll revisit last decembers low....conversely in the june thru sept period no one wanted to chase price up as printed in volume but retail was a keen chaser and now we've shaken out a lot of those retail with a 78.6% retrace of that june/sept swing so that makes this recent 78.6% retrace a significant level plus the move ended on a previous ratio swing of same size add to that the exchange in the recent series of hooks and we have come back into a zone that says we have attempted to print this zone as a floor (the vwap/vpoc crowd must be happy) so anecdotally i think we have good evidence of higher prices from fridays close but we must do two things: respect the 78.6% 1237 level and break thru 1285's ...as :thumbsdown: muddy as that maybe it's crystal clear to me :rolleyes:


gold barneys view 171215.png
 
i should have added, by contradicting myself and to be clear

the major prob and major mistake players make with fibs is that theyre most oft drawn between two end points low to high high to low is irrelevant, what's relevant is that the drawer has no reason to think that any of the levels in between zero and 100 has any more weight than any other within those two points unless a rotation occurs coincidentally with another pattern (a pattern a series of human actions in print) that warns the trader that that rotation (and how it unfolds, ie impulsively or a rejection of a level or an action that suggests someone is attempting to bring a move on)

but some instruments also have a history and/or propensity for price lengths and gold and many commodities refract/reflect/coincide/bounce/reject-from a small group such as 88.6%, 78.6. 52.36, 127.2 and 100% ...

again, how price reacts at these levels should alert a trader to risk ........all of these are only about risk versus prediction and even tho i often annotate "target" on my charts theyre a reference to ratios and theyrer based on recent same-size strutural moves that make sens within the confines of the recent same-size activity
 
Joules MM1 said:
this is going to be clear as mud as i've done this so many times but trying to explain it in this type of medium is like an outback rally with a flat tyre ...
Click to expand...

LOL ....... Your mud is actually quite clear joules ... I just hope others take the time to read it cause there are may pearls of wisdom amongst it:)

Have re-read and summarised the multitude of points you make just in case some future ASF potential Gold traders would like to look a bit deeper into the mind of Joules and want it in point form:p:D

Thanks for the detailed responses much appreciated;)

Joules above post summarised ...

pros like halfway levels


i first look for are relative structure moves


if price moves back to a ratio as a measure of a previous swing in that direction, within the confines of one larger move and respects that level, then that tells me a lot


the reason i prefer ratios for context is because theyre based on what people have done


repetition is good ..... if that repetition suddenly does something different, that may tell me that a new game is already underway ....


i place absolute Fib measures in low priority as Fibs are of themselves not provable/ random


2 things: even if that rotation occurs at that halfway it does not mean i am correct about the structure


Secondly, if the rotation is brushed aside ... adds to the idea that a new game is underway and new players, with intent, have entered


we may need to retest/probe back the highs before the 2011 bear can resume...each step and each structure needs context


its now a year since we went and revisited 1110 zone and nothing in the price action confirms we are in a bull trend


maybe seasonal bias might hold gold up for a few months


in this localised play we have a cupla abc games and none of them confirm trend action, rather a game of localised players and mm's staring at each other not being the first to make price discovery


clearly in oct/nov we had a lot of drivers change position and this was reflected in the kink pointed-to above in cot report


we never know if the buying by commercials is a straight out long bet or an insurance bet for whatever


one way of telling that is ... lifted volume and all transactions being balanced (someones buying all that elevated selling)


price structure should reflect that by breaking the typical pattern


that says if the price length does not break that 1285 level, the downtrend is probably back under way


conversely the june/sept period ..no one wanted to chase price up but retail was a keen chaser


now we've shaken out a lot of those retail with a 78.6% retrace of that june/sept swing so that makes this recent 78.6% retrace a significant level


the move ended on a previous ratio swing of same size


we have come back into a zone that says we have attempted to print this zone as a floor (the vwap/vpoc crowd must be happy)


anecdotally i think we have good evidence of higher prices from fridays close but we must do two things: respect the 78.6% 1237 level and break thru 1285's ...


muddy as that maybe it's crystal clear to me

Clear as mud to me Joules:D
 
cost of education
to find out if the rotation level had substance if not then the odds fell in favour of next target
the level i thought may see a rejection is not even visible on a 30 min view
message in a throttle (see chart above, see insert below)

gold rotation message 231217.png
 

Similar threads

Fiona96
Trading US Stocks
Replies
3
Views
1K
karenjones
K
M
Anyone here that trades both Futures and Forex in Australia? Broker suggestions please?
Replies
0
Views
2K
moyes
M
M
Anyone here that trades both Futures and Forex?
Replies
8
Views
2K
rcw1
R
ducati916
April DDD
3 4 5
Replies
98
Views
7K
ducati916
ducati916
Garpal Gumnut
Thoughts on Trading and Investing : Garpal Gumnut :
Replies
15
Views
2K
Garpal Gumnut
Garpal Gumnut
Top