Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Day Trading

an hour of strong volatility early this morning as swing traders exited longs, as the intermediate upchannel was confirmed broken

for players who missed the big low we are now in the return/retest journey
from a larger trend perspective the bulls can hold confidence the construct still favours them, below 1717 uh-oh above 1809 happy days

with the sell still

 
GEE !!
what chance that second parcel of GOR , tomorrow

spectacular ( in a scary way )

will $1750 hold ??
 
keep in mind that all the technical ideas all retail and small managers follow, the deep pockets, they know everything too,
they know the levels where vital account decisions get made, it's not about the trending value, it's about the levels that are
routinely set by different tiers of money, the size you play and the type of play you use maybe quite different to mine, however,
there is little (if anything) unknown in the trade sphere, what is most important is to keep an eye on the relative size and the context
your ability to play detective with patience and understand about the player on the other side of your trade, what is their intent?

if anything, avoidance of saying something is so when there is no benchmark, price is always printing a new signal, price is merely an expression of intent, how that is contextualised, before trading begins, determins how quickly a bias can be let go,
by default we are biased to honed knowledge and the need to be right

focus on where $silver broke the up-sloping channel, it's a fake drop-out, one of those moments to look back to as a defining "event"
well organized, maybe, simply how the auction organizes itself, most likely
upto that point there was a clear series of non-confirmations from silver and vice versa, from xauusd

with the print you see here, i say, this is technical confirmation, with the action of silver re-entering it's up-slope,
one could argue, that on such a near-term period, silver merely "dipped" thru the floor of it's gentle and easy-to-miss up-sloping channel

again, i maybe wrong with this idea of a confirmation signal, given when and where this signal has printed, if we put aside that $xauusd
has made considerable more headway at this point since the double bottom, we can look back as the overall print and suggest, that,
as silver is its own auction and follows it's own supply-demand, it merely has to offer a precision moment, a landmark

the lows of silver and xauusd now mark the be-all end-all of the two uptrends, they go the bulls go too
the difficulty, from an account point of view, that those lows are now higher risk, given that is true, we should expect
major players to open their wallets, not so much to chase available at the offer, rather to lower the risk, the closer i enter to lows
the lower the risk, the yin and yang of calling lows, rather, as i have this week, called the secondary signals, this switches my focus to a larger swing rather than day to day for xauusd

that's me rant, captain!

xauusd silver confirmation 280821.png
 
Last edited:
I hadn't seen your latest "rant".

Love the 1st paragraph. We are fish food in the trading ocean.

You didn't buy into that low did you? Seems you did.

And then you bought that RSI divergence. Nice job.

Like you, I love seeing the fake-outs (false BOs, false BDs) in gold and oil markets. They appear in the FX markets as well. The insto sharks feed on the bait balls. Rounding them up into a tight ball just below/above key levels.
 
My longer term end-of-day system (mixture of moving average crossovers and breakouts) has been neutral gold for a couple of weeks but, if price holds these levels, the system is within a couple of days of giving a long signal.

It will be interesting to see how this works out over the next few days.

KH
 
Top