Go To Cash or General Forum to Talk about A Guy Called Brett

[peter2]

Any cave companies on the ASX?

Absolutely, the ASX is awash with companies digging holes in the ground.

 

[satanoperca]

You're now my Guru @Garpal Gumnut , are we waiting for a Correction or a Crash?
And how long must I wait for a Crash?
Many thanks.

DK.

I wonder how common that thinking is?

Should we add caves to our portfolio?
They’ll gain value if everyone wants one.

Any cave companies on the ASX?

My statement was trying to bring some perspective in how people use words and defining those words with numbers, crash, correction, Armageddon.

As a system developer, I work with 1's and 0's, logic, not arbitrary statements.

If this current market volatility is a correction, who cares, just part of trading and investing.
If it is a crash, then how are you prepared to max opportunities while being prepare to preserve capitial.
If it is 50%> then run for the hills, however I see the possibility as 5%< probability

 

[Darc Knight]

You guys are smarter than me but I thought a Correction was above 10℅. I'm just worried about Index funds getting hammered due to overvaluation.

 

[Darc Knight]

ASX200 at 6100 when @Garpal Gumnut started this thread. Down another 2% this morning to 5709 atm. Lowest point for a year.
The Guru got it right!

 

[MarketMatters]

The ASX 200 was sitting at 6,374 (end of August), and now as it sits below 5,700, a decline of 10+% is a technical correction. A crash is more aligned with 20%+. Did I say October was a volatile month historically? Christmas rally starting to look very attractive once we get past the US mid terms in Nov.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Darc Knight,

Sir,

Thanks Comrade.

As Molotov said, gimme a cocktail.

The big guys don't like losing anymore than we do so unless everything goes to crap that is a recession -20% I can see some good buys coming up in the next few days.

Don't ask me where, once this happens I stop selling and start reading my old Superman collection.

We do indeed live in interesting times.

It's only money, roof over your head, 3 meals, family and friends are the important thing.

I'm a long term investor so will have a squiz early next week. Sold a few big ones before all this thank God.

gg

 

[Darc Knight]

Anyone else prefer to just take their medicine now and get this Bust done so we can start again?

 

[MarketMatters]

No reason for a recession as US is still growing although corporate profits are wavering. If we close below monthly support levels in DOW (24000) then a CRASH is imminent but usually that means flight to quality as cash turns to bonds, though bonds are not attractive hence it would need a decent catalyst to trigger a major crash ie. major capital writedowns? don't appear to be happening though.

NASDAQ will be key to help provide world markets with guidance. It was the first to make its high in August (Sept for S&P and Oct for Dow) hence if its stablises at these levels for next two weeks then bottom in place.

 

[Darc Knight]

I thought the U.S. would protect us somewhat. Trump will do everything to prevent a U.S. downturn.
Roger Montgomery was saying Australian conditions are there for things to go bad. He said 51/49 we'll have an economic downturn here.
Either way, next 12 months are gonna be bumpy.

 

[willy1111]

I thought the U.S. would protect us somewhat. Trump will do everything to prevent a U.S. downturn.
Roger Montgomery was saying Australian conditions are there for things to go bad. He said 51/49 we'll have an economic downturn here.
Either way, next 12 months are gonna be bumpy.

I haven't seen anything optimistic coming out of Rogers mouth for some time. He seems to be continually looking for data to support a down turn...maybe he's trying to talk the market down so he can see some value in the market that fits with his style.

 

[MarketMatters]

Remember the US uses Oz as a (Chinese) exposure mechanism. Being largely a banking/resources denominated index we don't behave the same as the US which delivers a piece of international diversification. Hence now days you need to watch the global money flows. That said if the US sneezes we do appear to catch the cold!

Overlay this with the delicate balance of global politics and you find a whole new level the market completely ignores - we are now more global than ever before. Take the recent example of blatant misuse of $17b to keep our American allies happy as we bought up old and faulty F35 fighter jets. Trying to keep our trade partners happy is one thing but siding with one of the superpowers is another. Overall that money could have been easily been spent on safeguarding Australia's economy if we waved the Swiss Flag!

 

[Darc Knight]

Every day I watch the ASX and see how far ahead I still am for taking onboard GG's tip. While I didn't dial back my exposure immediately, this thread did get me thinking and ultimately convinced me to move after the Dow dived (resulting in that big ASX dive a few days after this thread started).
Thanks Gumnuts.

 

[sptrawler]

Every day I watch the ASX and see how far ahead I still am for taking onboard GG's tip. While I didn't dial back my exposure immediately, this thread did get me thinking and ultimately convinced me to move after the Dow dived (resulting in that big ASX dive a few days after this thread started).
Thanks Gumnuts.

Just beware, our market is undervalued IMO, but it is driven by external forces.
Slowly, slowly catch the monkey. IMO
Garpel called it a treat, well done mate.

 

[Darc Knight]

Just beware, our market is undervalued IMO, but it is driven by external forces.
Slowly, slowly catch the monkey. IMO

Cheers Homer. I'm just a bit concerned by Wilson Asset Management predicting a Bear Market with occassionial rallies. Then there's the doom n gloom predictions of what will happen if Labor win.

 

[sptrawler]

Cheers Homer. I'm just a bit concerned by Wilson Asset Management predicting a Bear Market with occassionial rallies. Then there's the doom n gloom predictions of what will happen if Labor win.

That is why IMO, you should never be fully 'in' the market, or fully 'out' of the market.
It all boils back to your personal situation, if I was in my 20's I'd be saying yipee, what an opportunity.
If I was in my 60's I'd be saying WTF has happened to my life.
It is all relative.
That is why, my post script, is what it is.
Allow for the worst, hope for the best.

That is the benefit in a long term plan if you stick to it, you will never be mega rich, but you will never be sitting with your hand out.
The problem for the working 'man' if Labor bring in their changes are, the tradie buying the shares in the stay at home wife's name is shot.
The tradie's borrowing against the family home, to get an investment property, is shot to $hit.lol
Add to that, if they decide to go that route, the tax payable on any gain should dispel any fantasy about making money.
Also I guess the negative gearing and CGT rule changes, will affect share portfolio loans.
As I've been saying, the press keeps saying, it will only affect fat cats.
I think it will affect working people trying to get ahead far more.

 

[willy1111]

Then there's the doom n gloom predictions of what will happen if Labor win.

I wouldn't be surprised if the market takes off if Labour gets elected.

The market is forward looking so has probably already priced in all of Labours policies.

But I have no idea what will happen, just follow my plan, it has worked in the past hopefully it continues to do so into the future.

 

[MarketMatters]

We are sitting in the crosswinds of the Banking RC, an election which seemingly looks like a Labour win though one can never be sure until we are closer to the date (May), a trade war between Trump/Xi and a hard or soft landing Brexit outcome. As you say the market looks forward which it does yet analysts are hamstrung in estimating, with any real clarity, the forward earnings of companies affected by these major events. When they pass or are resolved the market moves on as it has its answers to assist forecasts, however, until then the uncertainty plagues it causing us all to question the direction and if traditional seasonal patterns, like Santa rallies, will unfold.

 

[So_Cynical]

A bit of risk on today with Afterpay and Wisetech both up significantly..