This is what I'm worried about with industry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance
There are basically two countries running massive per capita current account deficits. Australia is one, the US is the other. Nobody else is accumulating such a massive debt as these two.
Now, is anyone game to argue that Australia won't follow the US path from here on?
It's pretty widely acknowledged now that manufacturing finished products in Australia isn't viable because others can do it far cheaper. In every state and indeed near every capital city there are countless abandoned factories that once produced goods we now import. Even the "too big to fail" car industry is slowly but surely joining the list.
Likewise a large portion of non-government jobs located in offices can be offshored far more easily than you might think. If they can be sent from Hobart to Melbourne as actually happened during the 80's and 90's then it's not much harder to send them to India. It's not just call centres, it's the entire administration apart from roles directly relating to customers face to face - and even they can be reduced by technology.
So what are we going to export? Surely we don't think that the rest of the world is going to keep sending cars, aeroplanes, fuel, consumer goods, electronics and just about everything else in return for absolutely nothing? They'll want something back sooner or later.
Which leaves us with agriculture, mining and the only sort of manufacturing we seem to be competitive at - energy-intensive processing.
Education? Well it works now having that as an export industry. But surely nobody believes that the Chinese etc won't set up their own universitys sooner or later rather than keep coming here. Of course they will.
Health? Well you can't really offshore the local GP, but we can't really export that either. Any country where people can afford to pay, has their own doctors etc.
IT? Again it's largely imported hardware and apart from hardware-based physical things, the rest can be offshored just like anything else.
Tourism? Well that's an export, sort of. American planes running on fuel from Vietnam are a big import. But overseas visitors here are, financially, an export as far as bringing in money is concerned. But we're going to need an awful lot more tourists to pay this country's import bill that way. The sort of visitor numbers that aren't a small increase, but are beyond anyone's wildest dreams at the moment. (And then there's all that CO2 from aircraft...).
Bottom line is I just don't see it. We're left with agriculture, mining, energy-intensive processing, tourism and a few niche manufacturing operations as far as exports are concerned. Everything else is either too small to matter, isn't readily exportable anyway or is easily able to be offshored.
A case in point is what I've been doing over the past few days. Went to Melbourne on holidays. Now, some will point to this boosting GDP which is certainly true. But let's have a look at what it does to the balance of payments:
Drive to airport in a Japanese car running on imported petrol.
Flew to Melbourne in an American plane, also running on imported fuel.
Spent money at hotels, shops and so on. There would be a component of imports there, such as goods I bought in shops or equipment used in the hotel.
Came back again in an American plane etc.
Now, every single step of this sent money offshore in some way. Even the trains in Melbourne are (I'm told) now manufactured by a foreign company. Sure, I've added to GDP to circulate amongst ourselves but there's a constant drain heading offshore.
It's like swimming in a pool when someone's pulled the plug - splashing about will create some activity yes, but it doesn't change the fact that the pool will be empty at some point if there's more going out than coming in.
What are we going to do to bring some money back into Australia? Or are we just going to keep mortgaging the future, something that spells disaster as least as much as climate change if we allow it to happen?
Hence I'm none too keen on offshoring the few viable export industries we've got unless there's outright proof that foreigners will indeed support us forever - and there's not much chance of that happening, they'll want payment at some point (witness China's apparent threats to the US recently).
If we get this wrong then we'll either stuff the planet through CO2 or we'll stuff it trying to survive after we've gone broke. Take a look at any poor Third World country - they aren't exactly going to stop pollution or protect anything when they need every cent they can get no matter what the consequences. I'd rather we didn't head that way in Australia simply so we can take some high moral stand whilst our industry heads offshore only to pollute there instead. Principles? Yes, but not to the point of ruining the entire country...