Global Warming - How Valid and Serious?

The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change — named in honour of George Hadley — is part of, and based at the headquarters of the Met Office in Exeter. The Hadley Centre provides a focus in the United Kingdom for the scientific issues associated with climate change.

The Centre’s has several major aims:

To understand physical, chemical and biological processes within the climate system and develop state-of-the-art climate models which represent them
To use climate models to simulate global and regional climate variability and change over the last 100 years and to predict changes over the next 100 years
To monitor global and national climate variability and change
To attribute recent changes in climate to specific factors
To understand, with the aim of predicting, the natural inter-annual to decadal variability of climate
In 2005 the centre hosted the international scientific conference Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.

The Met Office employees over 1500 staff, with approximately 200 working in its climate research unit. etc
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The climate models (termed Global Climate Models) developed by the centre are used for climate change research purposes across the world.

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Questions about climate change
3.1 How do we know that the climate is changing? Although several aspects of climate are changing, temperatures provide the clearest evidence. For many decades, temperature near the surface has been carefully measured at thousands of locations on land and at sea. There are a large number of measurements of temperature close to the Earth's surface which are global in extent, from which we can form a global average, going back to 1860. These all show temperatures higher in the past few years than at any time during the instrumental period, even allowing for measurement uncertainties and gaps in the data.

Global average land and sea temperatures (see chart above) show considerable variability from year to year, but a clear underlying trend which shows rising temperatures until about 1940, a slight downward trend from about 1940-1975, and a rise of about 0.5 °C between 1975 and the present day.

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3.14 How likely is the Gulf Stream to stop flowing? Will this make Europe colder? The Gulf Stream (or North Atlantic Drift, to give it its proper title) brings warmer water from lower latitudes to the north-east Atlantic, and gives north-west Europe a milder climate than it would otherwise have.
The mechanism driving circulation in the North Atlantic, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, is shown in the below image.

This mechanism could be affected by man-made global warming in several ways, for example by increased rainfall over the N Atlantic, and hence there is the potential for the Gulf Stream to be reduced, or even switched-off, by man's activities.

When we use the Hadley Centre climate model to look at the response of the N Atlantic ocean circulation to future man-made emissions, shown in the above image, we see that reductions of about 20% by 2100 are predicted, rather than a complete shutdown. Other good climate models see greater or lesser reductions, but none produces a shutdown over the next 100 years..

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The Hadley Centre model has also been used to investigate the impact on climate of a hypothetical shut-down of the THC. It predicts that the whole of the northern hemisphere would be cooled, especially the north Atlantic; the UK might see a cooling of 3–5 °C. Daily minimum temperatures in central England in winter could plunge by 10 or 20 °C, and this would likely have a bigger effect on UK society than global warming. However, as was pointed out above, this is a 'what-if' scenario and not a prediction.

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The model predictions of only partial shut-down of the THC seem reassuring, but we do not fully understand the reasons for the stability of the ocean circulation, and there have been recent measurements in the N Atlantic which seem to be at variance with model simulations. Hence, research continues to quantify the risk of this potentially high-impact outcome of climate change.
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3.22How will climate change impact on our lives in the UK? Climate change will have impacts not only on the environment, but also on society and the economy. To find out more about these, please contact the UK Climate Impacts Programme, which is based at the University of Oxford.

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UK Weather 2008 - Global warming predictions

Winter 2080
Based on the outcome of the high emissions scenario from the Hadley climate models, here is a sample of the weather that we might experience in winter 2080. The modelers call the high emissions scenario the 'business as normal' scenario. In other words, this is what the weather will be like if we make no effort to curb our effect on global warming.

The onset of global warming has considerably shortened the British winter. In the Midlands and southern Britain, the first frosts typically occur a week or two before Christmas, with the number of cold and frosty mornings fewer. In parts of the Southwest, you'll have difficulty finding someone who can remember when they last scraped ice from the windscreen of their car. However, at least higher average winter temperatures have cut down on the number of days that the heating needs to be switched on for.

The old tradition of laying a bet on a white Christmas has become an almost pointless exercise. In southern England, snow during the Christmas season is a rare event – perhaps occurring once in 20 years. So is skiing in the Scottish Highlands; that industry packed up years ago as snowfall fell by 75% over 80 years. The heather has been replaced by arable grasslands, grazed by cattle for most of the year.

One aspect of the weather during winter which has become problematic is rainfall. Compared to 80 years before, winter rainfall is more frequent (up by around 30%) and severe downpours are more common. As a result, flash flooding is also more common and many low-lying areas along Britain's major rivers flood regularly. The London basin and the Thames and Severn estuaries have become particularly prone to flooding. The combination of higher sea levels, storm surges and heavy run-off during prolonged downpours has caused havoc over the last few decades. You've given up on your holiday cottage on the Somerset Levels since flooding became too frequent. It's caused house insurance prices for properties in low-lying areas adjacent to rivers to sky rocket.

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wayneL said:

It's snowing in Cheltenham, right now... late March.

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The planet is already committed to a certain level of climate change over the next 50 years. As well as giving help in understanding the core aspects of the science, the Met Office provides advice on adaptation and mitigation for planning purposes. Is your organisation ready to face the challenges that a changing climate will bring?

The information the Met Office can provide helps organisations make the right decisions now in planning for the future.

The production of this report requires a huge effort that spans the world and involves the leading research centres from around the world. From the UK, the Met Office is the single biggest scientific contributor and after the publication of this report, is ideally placed to comment on the science and its impacts.

For the full report see the IPCC website

For business
We advise across all the major business sectors, helping organisations understand and manage risk in relation to climate change. We provide climate change audits for businesses and organisations. Met Office experts work with businesses, enabling more effective long-term planning and giving far greater confidence that the likely impacts of climate change have been taken into account.
More about Consulting

For government
The Met Office advises the UK Government in terms of the science, we also offer advice internationally to other governments and administrations to help understand and deal with the changing climate. Although the Met Office Hadley Centre is the body responsible for advising Government on climate change science, it is the responsibility of Defra to direct UK Government policy on this matter.

For public
It is important that individuals are aware of the issues and are best placed to make the right decisions for themselves and their families. To help with this, key sources of information are: Met Office Hadley Centre, IPCC, Defra, UKCIP, Environment Agency, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Tyndall Centre.

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metric said:

what happened to the hole in the ozone layer? how do you put a hole in gas?

sunspots have more influence over the earths temp than GG.

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Ozone depletion
The ozone layer can be depleted by free radical catalysts, including nitric oxide (NO), hydroxyl (OH), atomic chlorine (Cl), and atomic bromine (Br). While there are natural sources for all of these species, the concentrations of chlorine and bromine have increased markedly in recent years due to the release of large quantities of manmade organohalogen compounds, especially chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and bromofluorocarbons. - Cl and Br radicals are liberated by the action of ultraviolet light. Each radical is then free to initiate and catalyze a chain reaction capable of breaking down over 100,000 ozone molecules.

Ozone levels, over the northern hemisphere, have been dropping by 4% per decade. Over approximately 5% of the Earth's surface, around the north and south poles, much larger (but seasonal) declines have been seen; these are the ozone holes.

Regulation
On January 23, 1978, Sweden became the first nation to ban CFC-containing aerosol sprays that are thought to damage the ozone layer. A few other countries, including the United States, Canada, and Norway, followed suit later that year, but the European Community rejected an analogous proposal. Even in the U.S., chlorofluorocarbons continued to be used in other applications, such as refrigeration and industrial cleaning, until after the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole in 1985. After negotiation of an international treaty (the Montreal Protocol), CFC production was sharply limited beginning in 1987 and phased out completely by 1996.

On August 2, 2003, scientists announced that the depletion of the ozone layer may be slowing down due to the international ban on CFCs.[3] Three satellites and three ground stations confirmed that the upper atmosphere ozone depletion rate has slowed down significantly during the past decade. The study was organized by the American Geophysical Union. Some breakdown can be expected to continue due to CFCs used by nations which have not banned them, and due to gases which are already in the stratosphere. CFCs have very long atmospheric lifetimes, ranging from 50 to over 100 years, so the final recovery of the ozone layer is expected to require several lifetimes.

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Australia has phased-out the import, export and manufacturing of Halons since 1992 and CFCs since 1995. Some state governments in Australia also ban the possession of Halons without a license. Australia has also decommissioned all of its non-critical Halon fire extinguishing systems.

In Australia, all the states have passed regulations prohibiting the use of Halons in non-critical applications... etc .

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2020hindsight said:

PS - it's apparenly the rule of oops 69.3 (100 log(2))
but 72 is a neat one having so many factors.
just like a bank account -
6% per annum will double your money in 12 years (6x12=72)
7% in 10 years (7x10)
12% in 6 years etc

and
3% per annum in parts of Africa will double their population (ignoring change to the underlying factors) in 23 years

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noirua said:

Australia provides more money towards the development of UCC coal than any other. Mining companies pay a 20 cent tariff per tonne on all coal produced.
A Link from the "Australian Coal Association" : http://www.australiancoal.com.au/cleantechAus.htm

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Kimosabi said:

Yep, Global Warming is just an excuse to create a tax for an essential gas for life on the planet.

What they should be doing is taxing pollution, but the priority seems to be destroying the planet as quickly as possible.

Turns out Sunspot activity has decreased dramatically and apparently the sun is 15-20% dimmer. I'm not sure if the the dimness measurement is a space based measurement or earth based. If it is earth based, I'd be blaming these guys for spraying whatever crap they are spraying into the air, apparently a combination of Aluminium and Barium and a host of other nasty's from Rain based analysis etc

By the way these things aren't contrails because contrails don't hang around for 1 - 2 hours and then dissipate into a smoggy cirrus type cloud.

Anyway, my prediction for winter in the southern hemisphere is that we are going too have a FREEZING COLD, wet winter, and I'm even predicting Perth may get snowed on this winter. If it was good enough for Saudi Arabia to get the first snow in recorded history during their last winter, I reckon it's good enough for little old Perth to get some snow this winter...

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2020hindsight said:

which simply means we are being hypocritical when we deny that it's a problem yes?

It's like Johnny Howard: " NO WAY will we sign up to Kyoto and it's goals! - but in any case, just for fun, we've given it a go, and we are doing better"

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metric said:

call me cynical if you like, but something just doesnt sit right with me about this sudden GW fanaticism. just for an entertaining exercise let us ask;

IF, GW is a scam;

*who stands to profit from it?
*who is pushing the agenda? (to profit from it)
*are there scientists whom disagree? ( how are they treated by mainstream media)
*what is the single biggest contributor to GW?
*whom is the religion designed to disadvantage? (why)

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Currently, about 40% of urban solid waste is not treated at all, but is instead
landfilled at sub-standard facilities on the outskirts of cities. In Beijing alone,
10,000 tons of urban solid waste is generated every day, and about 700 solid
waste dumps surround the city. This condition is not unique, as two-thirds
of Chinese cities face similar solid waste treatment problems like Beijing
does.

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