Just out of curiosity...
Put your guns down for a moment...
Ferret, Wayne and 20/20 especially... do you guys think that "Global Warming", or even specifically excess carbon emissions, is just a symptom of more substantial environmental problems?
And IFF so, (from your point of view) do you think that the GW debate will run its course and ultimately be replaced by matters that are arguably more central to the crux (don't know the plural for crux lol) of the matters. i.e. massive energy resource depletion.
Because as a "hard core" environmentalist (at least in these parts I am lol!), the debate to me is completely arbitrary. For instance, most people would agree that we are at or near peak oil production. Therefore the moves to combat this, in turn target carbon emissions. Without oil, we don't drive, don't have an economy etc. etc. So you look at mass transit ideas, which both help the economy, are an efficient energy use, and you reduce emissions that way.
And you can go on and on in this manner. Destroying farm land to extend cities etc. etc.
The follow up questions are then: do policies and initiatives towards reducing CO2 specifically, although desirable (maybe? maybe not?), go only part of the way in doing their job, because of this? And if so, what do you propose we target, or not target?
Of course, you could just ignore my effort and say "nah, they're aren't any environmental problems either!" Lol!
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p.s. If I get some good answers, you'll get to hear what I think about all this. Wont that be grand boys and girls?
Some good questions there chops.... here are my answers. It may not look like it, but I have been brief.
1) I am not necessarily saying that GW is not happening at all. I am saying that there are enough questions remaining about its intensity and cause to warrant further observation prior to winding back the gains of the past 200 years. What I am saying, is that the “debate”, as it now stands, has been rushed, one sided and has become political in the extreme. There surrounds the issue of GW a religious fervour, a hysteria, and this is dangerous as it stifles honest open debate. Anyone, regardless of qualification, who questions aspects of GW, its causes and intensity, is ostracised and almost publicly shamed as a “non-believer”, a fool and a naysayer. History has shown us that this sort of mass-hysteria can have devastating consequences.
2) It is possible that the debate will run its course. However, because the issue has been embraced by so many, so publicly, that should it become apparent in the years to come that GW was indeed false or much less impacting than previously believed, what will happen is that the “movement” will claim victory and say they saved the day. They will claim that the (minor and futile) changes that were imposed on society averted disaster. I believe that too many people would be humiliated by a public declaration of “we were wrong” for the movement to ever declare that the entire basis for the GW debate was based on fallacy.
3) Peak Oil and resource depletion. Chops… I agree that right now, today, there are certainly supply constraints on oil and this will remain for some time into the future. It is obvious that OPEC elect not to increase output because they presently cannot. However, this will not always be the case..IMO. As exploration continues new, large reserves will be discovered, developed over time and exploited. Of course, I agree that eventually, one day we would have depleted the worlds oil reserves. IMO, however, this is some way off.
What is important to remember is this….. Even when (before) we deplete oil (or any other resource) the desire for profit will have lead to newer technologies. The market, seeing not a crisis, but an opportunity for profit, will react. This has been the case for 1000’s of years and will continue to remain so. No one develops new drugs for the good of mankind, it’s done for profit. The same can be said of any industry, any sector, any part of modern life. Advancement is driven by competition and profit.
Look at what we have achieved in such a short period of time and how society, just a short 200 years ago, would have never ever ever been able to comprehend (yet achieve through planning) what we can do now. Global travel was limited to a select few in tall ships. It was only 105 years ago that the Wright brothers had the first powered flight. 100 years! In that time we have gone from a single short flight to having developed something as impressive and astoundingly difficult as the A380. Every day millions of people travel on thousands of flights from thousands of airports the world over, in thousands of different aircraft. Do you think they would have even been able to imagine such a feat? This is but one example, but there are hundreds, thousands of examples. A short 230 years ago the globe was not even charted, it took years and years to chart a single continent with any degree of rough accuracy. Now we have satellites that look down upon us… imagine trying to explain to Captain Cook the concept of Google Earth…. he would not have been able to comprehend the entirety of it.
Everything we have become is because of the desire to be king, to be number 1 and the desire for profit. Just as those such as Cook and the Wright bros would not have been able to comprehend such advancements, we are not able to fully imagine (yet alone plan for) what will be discovered over the next 30/50/70 100 years plus. We cannot “plan” or centralise these things. The market itself will follow the most efficient path based firstly on what we need, and secondly on what we want. It’s erroneous to imagine running out of oil, using the image of what we know of society today. It’s erroneous because we cannot possible take into consideration developments and advancements that will occur.
All we have achieved as a society, as a species, has been done with no central planning, no “control” from a central agency or master-plan. It has been achieved by what F.A Hayek describes as the “spontaneous order”, essentially driven by free market economics and the desire for profit. As we speak thousand of companies world wide are researching energy alternatives. Why? Because there is money to be made. Not because of some Govt decision or order or because we signed a piece of paper.
It is easy to believe that we have reached the end-point of knowledge, that we know all there is to be known in regards to development. However, the same can be said for previous generations and times. All they knew was what they had then, and couldn’t possible fathom (or plan for) future development. Just as we now, cannot fathom and centrally plan for what happens next.
Trust the market, trust the spontaneous order….. it has worked for centuries and will continue to do so. As soon as we believe that individuals, Govt’s or committees can be more efficient in finding solutions to problems… we are doomed.