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GFC 2

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rumpole said:
Sad about Retravision. They are good stores with helpful staff. As I'm in NSW I hope mine survives.
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We'll end up with only Harvey Norman in the end if things get bad enough
 
MrBurns said:
We'll end up with only Harvey Norman in the end if things get bad enough
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That is How Gerry play, he's not a bad operator ...

he turn up the volume when things get tough and knock a few out ....

there is an article in AFR a few weeks ago analyst blame HVN for massive discount
that decimate JBH margin and other retailers....

I would do the same, if I have the muscles when things get real tough I turn up the heat
a bit more and drive a few more rivals out...
 
If Gerry doesnt get through it no one will, he's a clever bugger.
Watch what he does in the near future, shut stores etc, when retail is down even he won't escape. FTSE and DAX down again tonight.
 
MrBurns said:
If Gerry doesnt get through it no one will, he's a clever bugger.
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Gerry runs a big REIT. It just so happens there is a Harvey Norman store in each of HVN's properties.

I will say with 99% confidence (and take that for what it's worth) that HVN will not exist in its current form in 10 years time. It might still be around but it won't be anything like it is now.
 
This will be a slow death the feds will do any thing to keep it going.
Thought the housing crash would start in 2009 but was out a few years the drip feed tube has a hole in it so its going to be a slow death.
Come back about 2017 with your cash for some bargains.
 
The last of the bigger money being spent on established housing is being spent now, from here on those buying will have sold on a lower market and will only pay those lower prices to get back in and down it goes.
 
Surely nobody is really claiming that they know what will happen tomorrow? I certainly don't.

Do we not each evaluate our perceptions of the risk that exists, consider our own risk profiles, take advice or not, and make the best decisions we can according to our circumstances?

Mr B I thought a while back you were thinking you'd missed the boat on the TLS thread. Now it's GFC2?

Maybe it is.. Or not.

Regards

Rick
 
Muschu said:
Mr B I thought a while back you were thinking you'd missed the boat on the TLS thread. Now it's GFC2?
Rick
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I did rick ...on that particular stock but the Greek problem has been hanging around for a while and has now ignited, all the signs of GFC 2 are now there, cant see how this can be reversed.
 
MrBurns said:
I did rick ...on that particular stock but the Greek problem has been hanging around for a while and has now ignited, all the signs of GFC 2 are now there, cant see how this can be reversed.
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The difference between the GFC and now is the GFC was started by a series of largely unforeseen events. I remember at the end of 2004 reading something about the US real estate market and thinking we were in a bubble but I had no idea it would go as deep as it did or that it would cause a huge structural change in behaviour. What we know now is that the PIIGS are basically broke. Whether Greece stays or goes is much of a muchness in the grand scheme of things. It's hard to believe that it hasn't been priced in. It's the unknowns that cause GFC's not the knowns.

At least, IMHO.

ETA: I think industrials are in way better position now than they were in '08. The real risk is on the household sector who are still carrying a lot of debt.
 
MrBurns said:
I did rick ...on that particular stock but the Greek problem has been hanging around for a while and has now ignited, all the signs of GFC 2 are now there, cant see how this can be reversed.
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Yep - no reversal. Only question was whether the balloon would pop or deflate slowly. Sounds like the former.

Let's just get to the bottom of the barrell ASAP and then work our way up from there...
 
StumpyPhantom said:
Yep - no reversal. Only question was whether the balloon would pop or deflate slowly. Sounds like the former.

Let's just get to the bottom of the barrell ASAP and then work our way up from there...
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+1 phantom. Quite scary to think exactly where the bottom is. I've been wondering if good old isaacs 'for every action there is an equal reaction' applies to the global economy. Eg for every dollar created as debt there will inevitably have to be a dollar destroyed. For every bull run there will be an equivalent tank. Are we always going to end up back where we started? For every moment an economy is inflating or expanding will there be an equal amount of contraction/deflation?
 
McLovin said:
The difference between the GFC and now is the GFC was started by a series of largely unforeseen events.
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Unforeseen? There were a group of us in here, and in the wider financial community banging on about what was coming for ages.

Perhaps the exact trigger and timing was unforeseen, but not the event.
 
Warming reading from some of yesterdays market commentary


 

Yep - I've been thinking about this overnight - trying to macro-predict the bottom (by comparison to GFC1 and the March 2009 low), so I would be grateful for any other views.

I think we're probably already headed back to that low, but the question is how much lower. That low occurred because the financial crisis tipped over into the real economy when the money freeze stopped the flow of commerce dead in its tracks.

So that's what to watch for this time around - the real economy. Even if the global economy has one of its cyclical recessions (US after 3-4 years anaemic growth, and China due for one), that should be one where there is a normal pick up out of it. It's taken for grant that Europe will be in a deep recession, so all that's left will be BRIC and the developing world.

What will the financial contagion coming out of Europe affect? The worry is that it will combine will all these cyclical recessions - the synchronising effect of globalisation - and bring on a preciitous drop in the markets.

So if you thought GFC1 was a once in a lifetime opportunity, we might all be two-up on our way to the cat's 9 lives in the next 2-3 years. Such a massive scenario you can't imagine playing out for a minimum 5 years, so plenty of time to clear debt and save pennies?
 
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