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GCR - Golden Cross Resources

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Hi Michael,



GCR​


Mkt Structure

Shares
630m
15m 8c - 10c Unlisted Employee Options

Cash $4.5m + $2m holding in listed assets/stocks (some still to be issued)
As well as this GCR are carried for $18.3m in exlploration by JV's including TRO, ZFX, Vale and Inco to name a few


Mkt Cap @4c = $25m Current


Mkt Cap @10c = $63m Target made up of 50% of Current Mt Isa EV and 10% of LOW CASE NPV for Copper Hill + cash and listed assets royalties etc

Mkt Cap @19c = $120m Current Mt Isa EV + 20% NPV of LOW CASE NPV @ Copper Hill




Projects
Copper Hill Copper + Gold, 100%, NSW

JORC 133Mt's@0.31%Cu + 0.28g/t Au = 1g/t + Au Equiv

Now although the deposit is low grade its gold equiv grade is not too bad ie 1g/t Au, but the main Pros and Cons are as follows

http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/copper-hill/default.html

Pros
- Exisiting infrastructure, rail, town, workforce, equipment etc etc
- Very low waste to ore ratio 0.6:1 this reduces the cost of hauling dirt, for example an operation grading say double Copper Hill but had a waste to Ore ratio of say 2:1 would be less economical as alot more dirt is required to be moved etc etc SO THIS IS A MAJOR FACTOR
- Copper Hill copper concentrates contain no deleterious elements and may attract a price premium. (further metallurgical test work is required)
- Current NPV indicates a very very large return
- Located in Australia = very safe and mining friendly nation to operate it albeit with Environmental green tape

Cons
- Huge Cap Ex = requires the backing of a major partner via either direct farm out or perhaps even offtake with commodity groups etc
- Low grade ore = high cost production (partially offset by low waster ratio) but = requires premium base metals prices to be profitable



NPV
Also here you will find the companies NPV calcs http://www.goldencross.com.au/properties/copper-hill/default.html

It is clearly shown that even using a $600 AUD Gold price vs Current $950+ and a $2.65 AUD Copper price vs current $4.20+ an 8Mt p.a. operation will generate an NPV of $270m ($600m - $330m)

Now even if GCR farmed out 80% of this project to be free carried, that would still = a Net Attributable NPV of $54m = 8.5c


I'm not saying hey Copper Hill is worth Millions I'm just saying given the balance of the pros and cons I think you can just cross of Copper Hill as adding value to GCR, but do agree to really take the project seriously the funding via a JV or Offtake needs to be established, I'm still waiting on confirmation of this.

p.s. There is also the EXPLORATION POTENTIAL at Copper Hill, I'd say they are looking to find higher grade satelite ore bodies etc





Projects
Mt Isa Phosphate, 20% Free Carried by Legend Corp, Qld near Mt Isa and near to Incitecs exisitng Phosphate mine

Qld Govt Historic JORC 500Mt's@15%Phosphate

Now this is a historic resource and the only reason it deosn't meet the JORC standard is because it was defined prior to the existance of the JORC code, ie any deposits no matter how ell defined that were established prior to the JORC code don't meet it, but really its just a technicality

See for yoursefl on the Qld Govt Minerals Database
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/493685.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/491206.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494076.htm
http://www.vizmap.com/NRM/Commodities/494100.htm



GCR's JV partner is Legend International a major Phosphate player in Aust, for more info on Legend see http://www.lgdi.net/

Now Legend are working towards getting the whole project area towards production, they recently completed a scoping study and have an updated presentation which shows cost etimates, margins, production scenarios and resulting profit scenarios as well as timelines etc well worth a look http://www.lgdi.net/pdf/Legend_Phosp...ril_2008v2.pdf


Valuing Mt Isa
EV
Legend current shareprice = $3.90 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $780m US = $860m AUD

Legend has a NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.4Bt's but 100mt's is GCR's)

$860m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 66c per tonne ore @15% Phosphate

GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's

@ 66c/t = $66m 10.5c GCR

To keep an eye on Legends share price ann's and mkt cap see http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php but remember the Mkt Cap given doesn't take into account the 20m or so options and thus is 10% under what it should be



Conclusions
- Based on my prefered valuation the EV GCR is worth 8c+ on Mt Isa alone
-GCR is one of only 4 ASX listed companies with an actual Agricultural deposit
- GCR's deposits are between 60kms-150kms from IPL's operating Phosphate Mine
- GCR's project is part of a bigger project for big brother Legend kinda like the CUL/AQA relationship, the big brother has the deep funding pockes and expertise needed to advance these projects to production allowing GCR to advance its many other projects
- Copper Hill maybe in OFFTAKE discussions which would be a very important milestone for the company
- The company has many JV's and other projects from NSW to QLD to Panama to Canada
 


Just looking at this mate, but where does it say that GCR has an interest in the Lily creek deposit??
 
Took a position today 500,000 @ .042cents - was just waiting for the sell volume to disappear at .042 to confirm the trend for me.

Loads of buy volume there and looking for those buyers to overwhelm the sellers.

Good luck ASFer's


JW
 
Lots of stale bulls getting out at 0.042 to 0.046.

If they'd read YTs reports they'd be fresh bulls and holding!!
 
Don't quote me as I'm going from memory, but to add to YTs value analysis, it also needs mentioning I think they have something like $18m worth of drilling going on all their other properties that have been JVed, or royalty'd out.

Since most juniors this size have a hard time spending $1-2m a time on exp, thats a lot of drilling going on, on a lot of properties.
 
I'm out at 0.047 for $2,400 profit thank you very much!

Shall keep an eye on this one just in case it wants to give me some more money. Should provide some more action in the coming days and some fun opportunities for a bit of trading............

Good luck to the rest of you holding, i hope tomorrow provides you with further advances.


JW
 
JeSSica WaBBit said:
I'm out at 0.047 for $2,400 profit thank you very much!
Click to expand...

You clever little wabbit, you...


Yes keep an eye on it alright. YT is pretty conservative with his valuations and rightly so. But it has been out of favour with the market for quite awhile and from some sums I did earlier, once the market takes a liking to it the price could easily exceed those values.
 

Sweeeeeeet! Nice work for a couple of hours - tell me, is this your day job or do you just have ready access to trade?
 
Record volume...28.6m shares traded so far today.

Previous highest 28.17m in August 06 when they peaked at 11 cents.
 

You were only in this stock for about 6hrs correct?

thats a good quick profit.

feeling up space here.. dont read
 
Hi Gentlemen,

yer just in it a couple of hours. Not sure how long it was maybe 2 hrs?

No, not a full time trader, merely an amatuer but i have been watching this one for the last week. In QLD and its a public holiday today so i was able to make the trade.

I actually traded AGO just after the open and made $400.00 on that in about 3 mins, it could have been more because i was up $950.00 but i hesitated in executing the sell and it cost me $500.00. Silly wabbit....

Its how Larry Livingston would have executed the trade on GCR,thats what i have learnt from his trading style. Simple, trade with the trend and keep an eye on buyers and sellers, when one of them overwhelms the other and its trending in your predicted direction you take the trade.

As soon as i saw all those sellers get bought out at .042 i knew it was going to keep going, i placed an order for 250,000 to get some at .042, then the sales keep going through so i took the last of them at .042 with my next order, then i just rode the trend until it turned and sold out.

Basic stuff, that exactly what i did on AGO, rode it for a few bucks and as soon as it turned i was out.

No one ever knows which way it will go but probabilty tells you that if most indicators all point to the same thing then the liklihood is it will go that direction, that said, always be ready to get out in case it goes against you.

I am just a beginner like the rest of you but try and apply what i have learnt and always try to take low risk high probabilty trades. You dont need to trade every day to make money, you just have to make sure that when you decide to buy or sell its going to be something that has the best probabilty of going your way.

Good luck to any of you who still hold.

JW
 
Hmm a very interesting day today,

Clearly a wash out day getting rid of old stale hands and bringing on board new fresh believers in the story,

Now all we need is for Legend to continue its upwards run in the US

Also I just recieved the article from my broker and yes GCR apparantly are in offtake discussions

see here http://www.asiaminer.com/magazine/latest/story-of-the-month.html




p.s. Jessica just imagine if you had bought say a few Million at 3.5c when I first posted? ? ? to each their own strategy but I feel today was a definate breakout day for GCR and over time it should move up stronger
 
Posted 05052008:



Hi folks,

GCR ... has been on the move, since mid-April 2008 .....

..... expecting more positive moves over the next couple of weeks:

09-12052008 ... minor and positive light on GCR

16052008 ... minor cycle

19-20052008 ... positive news expected here.

03-04062008 ... more news expected, triggered by lunar cycle

10062008 ... positive spotlight on GCR ... 2 time cycles here ...

13062008 ... significant and positive aspect.

19062008 ... negative cycle expected ... could be B!!!G

02-04072008 ... positive news expected ... 2 time cycles here.

11072008 ... negative spotlight on GCR.

have a great day

paul



=====
 
True YT,

that would have been lovely, but, i am happy with my days work. There is always tomorrow and i can get back on board if i think it looks good.

By the way, well done to yourself for picking this one and congratulations on putting up very informative posts on the stock.

Good luck YT, i hope you squeeze it for everything its worth.

JW
 
Yes, I think there were some long frustrated holders clearing out too,YT.

I've been in them for abt 18 mths and taken profits a couple of times, but I have still come back in later, because as the articlue you post points out, there are still good prospects to upgrade the resource at Copper Hill on top of the increasing value of the phosphate play.

I've held today, also looking for better to come this time.

I think the market might be starting to like the old girl a bit now... with a bit of help from YT's midas touch.
 
Hi YT,

Thanks so much for all the information you put forward I knew you were on to another winner here. I bought last week and so owe much gratitude.

Smurfette
 
Again YT, thanks. Your research made the decison to buy rather easy for me and im just glad i did most of my buying last week. You have the middas touch. Thanks
 
Gutnick's Legend Wins Agreement to Sell Fertilizer to India

By Madelene Pearson

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Legend International Holdings Inc., controlled by mining entrepreneur Joseph Gutnick and backed by Atticus Capital Holdings LLC, agreed to sell India fertilizer worth $1 billion a year, shoring up supplies for the nation.

Legend may supply at least 3 million metric tons of phosphate rock a year from its planned project in Australia to the Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Ltd., Gutnick said in an interview. Legend and IFFCO are also in talks to fund the development, estimated to cost $826.6 million, he said.

The project may tap rising demand for crop nutrients in developing countries as they lift food and fiber consumption. India's fertilizer imports tripled in the four years to March 31, 2007, and China, which exports fertilizer to India, last month raised export taxes to meet domestic demand.

``The fact that we have an end buyer is half the battle, if not more than half the battle,'' Gutnick, 55, said in an interview at the company's Melbourne headquarters. ``I've traveled to Asia to a number of countries, there is a shortage and there is a real need for fertilizers.''

Legend rose 82 cents, or 27 percent, to $3.92 in New York on May 2 in Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board trading. It has more than tripled this year.

Gutnick is the company's largest shareholder with 47 percent of Legend stock. Atticus, a New York-based hedge fund holds 12 percent of the company. Legend got the rights to the project from the government of Australia's Queensland state last year.

China, India

Food needs in China and India will boost sales of crop nutrients for years to come, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world's largest fertilizer maker, said in February. South Asia, which includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, was the biggest importer of phosphate rock in 2006, according to the International Fertilizer Industry Association.

Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative, known as IFFCO, says it's the country's largest producer of fertilizer from its five plants as of March 31, 2007, according to its Web site. The Delhi-based group has 50 million farmer members, Gutnick said.

IFFCO may pay for some or all of the development cost in return for a stake in the plant or the company, Gutnick said.

The price IFFCO will pay will be linked to international prices and is still being negotiated, he said. Based on today's price the deal is worth about $1 billion, he said. Phosphate rock is used to make crop nutrients.

Production Target

``We are assured of a good price in good times and bad,'' Gutnick said. ``It's a significant step forward.''

The project will have output of 5 million tons a year and includes a mine, a plant and pipeline to the port of Karumba in northern Queensland, for export. Production is scheduled to begin at the end of 2009, with a six-month contingency timeframe, Gutnick said. He is ``very confident'' it will go ahead.

Gutnick was once a prominent gold miner in Australia. He was the founder of Great Central Mines Ltd., previously the nation's second-largest gold company. The mine is now owned by Newmont Mining Corp.

China, which exports phosphate rock and urea to India, raised export taxes on fertilizers to as much as 135 percent last month. The increases, which will boost the tariff range from 0 percent to 35 percent, to 100 percent to 135 percent, will apply from April 20 to Sept. 30, the Ministry of Finance said last month.
 

Hi Jess, for AGO, i wouldnt be surprised, that it could double from here in the next 12 months

AGO - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -13.9 -2.9 16.2 66.7
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

GCR I am still looking into, thanks YT

MS
 
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