Whiskers
It's a small world
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Probably some bottom scavenger that picked them up in the low 2 cents the other day.
Geeses, why wasn't that me.
GCR - Golden Cross Resources
- Thread starter Sean K
- Start date
Probably some bottom scavenger that picked them up in the low 2 cents the other day.
Geeses, why wasn't that me.
Probably some bottom scavenger that picked them up in the low 2 cents the other day.
Geeses, why wasn't that me.
Wiskers, i see this as more of an IRC. YT posted on IRC and i bought later then i would as i was initially hesitent, but i did buy because of the massive resource and low capitalisation that is has. I bought mid 30's and am up almost 50% already in under 3 weeks. I cant complain. I really cant. I think STB need to resolve their cash position. They are low on $$$. GCR in fact reminds me of IRC in the fact that it too has a massive resource. This time phosphate, not vanadium. I have bought more today anyway and am happy to buy more.
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Fed perhaps a bit of patience mate, you may yet get it
It now looks like my other spec Agri play STB is getting in on the action
Strange really that all the other Agri plays are performing so well yet GCR is somewhat forgoten,
In terms of ASX listed Agri players with deposits theres only IPL MAK and RWD
IPL's mkt cap is $8Billion
MAK's mkt cap is $275m
RWD's mkt cap is $130m
GCR's mkt cap is $25m
I'd say GCR is the 4th most advanced agri player on the ASX given its got a deposit and a JV with a major player, the mkt cap doesn't reflect it though
It now looks like my other spec Agri play STB is getting in on the action
Strange really that all the other Agri plays are performing so well yet GCR is somewhat forgoten,
In terms of ASX listed Agri players with deposits theres only IPL MAK and RWD
IPL's mkt cap is $8Billion
MAK's mkt cap is $275m
RWD's mkt cap is $130m
GCR's mkt cap is $25m
I'd say GCR is the 4th most advanced agri player on the ASX given its got a deposit and a JV with a major player, the mkt cap doesn't reflect it though
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Hey guys,
I got my shares at 3.9c earlier today so I'm aboard the train so to speak.
YT thanks for all the research and info you have given us. I know I speak for a lot of posters when I say that we appreciate the time and effort you take to share your research with us.
Smurfette
I got my shares at 3.9c earlier today so I'm aboard the train so to speak.
YT thanks for all the research and info you have given us. I know I speak for a lot of posters when I say that we appreciate the time and effort you take to share your research with us.
Smurfette
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Hey Smurffete thanks and good to have you aboard
Interesting to see GCR's Phosphate JV partner Legend trading up higher in the US http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php , although the US page quotes the Mkt Cap at $450m US it does not take into account the options listed and unlisted so the Mkt Cap is actualy closer to $500m US = $550m AUD
This would mena that the 6.3c extrapolated EV is now probably 7c or something
Sooner or latter the mkt will have to wake up to the potential of GCR if for nothing else its Phosphate
Interesting to see GCR's Phosphate JV partner Legend trading up higher in the US http://www.lgdi.net/inc/redirect_share_price.php , although the US page quotes the Mkt Cap at $450m US it does not take into account the options listed and unlisted so the Mkt Cap is actualy closer to $500m US = $550m AUD
This would mena that the 6.3c extrapolated EV is now probably 7c or something
Sooner or latter the mkt will have to wake up to the potential of GCR if for nothing else its Phosphate
Hey YT just curious why are you discounting Copper Hills NPV so much?
You say only apply 5% or so, I believe in caution but isn't that too much? I know that allocating 100% is also silly but I would have thought that maybe 20% ie 1 in 5 was more reasonable?
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I'm on board at 38, took out the whole parcel on offer around midday - hoping to push it up a little .... seems to have worked (at least I can think to myself it did)
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Gekko,
You have to take everything into consideration
Yes the NPV would be $650m
HOWEVER the CAP EX is $350m this is a significant amount of money for a tiny company like GCR to come up with especially considering its about 14x the size of their current mkt cap
In my opinion for this project to move forward a major with deep pockets is needed
Given the level of JV's and farm outs GCR has done I would I assume that this is the logical move they are hoping to take keeping say a 20% carried interest or even 10% who knows
The point is until the funding issue is resolved by GCR getting the backing of a major the NPV at Copper Hill must be heavily discounted to reflect the risk as I said every 1% probability you attribute to the chance of success at Copper Hill = 1c in NPV value
You have to take everything into consideration
Yes the NPV would be $650m
HOWEVER the CAP EX is $350m this is a significant amount of money for a tiny company like GCR to come up with especially considering its about 14x the size of their current mkt cap
In my opinion for this project to move forward a major with deep pockets is needed
Given the level of JV's and farm outs GCR has done I would I assume that this is the logical move they are hoping to take keeping say a 20% carried interest or even 10% who knows
The point is until the funding issue is resolved by GCR getting the backing of a major the NPV at Copper Hill must be heavily discounted to reflect the risk as I said every 1% probability you attribute to the chance of success at Copper Hill = 1c in NPV value
Ok I get it but I think it depends as you say on how confident you are on the project making profits to return as dividends to us
I probably am a little bit more optimistic than you with it but given your knowledge perhaps I should err on the side of caution and allocate say 5% like you
But if I get this right you say based on Legend Mt Isa should be worth at least 6cents to 7cents
So at 4c GCR is trading at over a 50% discount to what Mt Isa should be worth and no value/ 0% is attibuted to Copper HIll or any of the other projects
I probably am a little bit more optimistic than you with it but given your knowledge perhaps I should err on the side of caution and allocate say 5% like you
But if I get this right you say based on Legend Mt Isa should be worth at least 6cents to 7cents
So at 4c GCR is trading at over a 50% discount to what Mt Isa should be worth and no value/ 0% is attibuted to Copper HIll or any of the other projects
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legend collects 80% of the phosphate from the farm in the way i read it. im sure there are lots of examples of stocks with minority interests going to the roof but usually they are forgotten or dont get anywhere near the same ride as the main player
i wonder if GCR can claw back any of the interest they sold out for a song.
i wonder if GCR can claw back any of the interest they sold out for a song.
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legend collects 80% of the phosphate from the farm in the way i read it. im sure there are lots of examples of stocks with minority interests going to the roof but usually they are forgotten or dont get anywhere near the same ride as the main player
i wonder if GCR can claw back any of the interest they sold out for a song.
I disagree country boy, I actually see it as a way for the juniors to fast track a project towards production, the deep pockets and expertise but mainly deep pockets a major can bring allows the juniour to sit back and really ride on the coatails of the Big Brother
think CUL/RHI were it not for AQA I highly doubt whether that region of Iron Ore would be so advanced AQA is making the project work and thus CUL has gone from 4c - 15c+
Alot of the time juniors are unable to make a project work in time, take for example RMI, they had so much promise and owned 100% of their huge Nickel Laterite deposit and I think 100% of their Iron Ore play, I ask you what has the company done to date? SFA and their SP has gone from 5c - 15c back to 3c, I'm sure if they had a major on board this would not have happened
So as I said early I am glad GCR realised they aren't Phosphate players and thus farmed out the project to a serious group who can actually develop it, Legend aim to be in production by the end of 2009 thats less than 2 years away, can you imagine the profit potential from this multi Billion $ deposit????
I firmly believe 20% of some profits is better than 100% of none and based on CUL vs RMI performance I prefer Juniours who are carried by Big Brothers (especially since sometimes the big brothers buy shares on mkt in the juniour ie GIR HLX CUL) sure they give up a % but at least stuff happens and they don't end up like the RMI's of the junior exploration world
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Guys this is now getting ridiculous
Overnight Legend has risen strongly to $3.10 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $620m US = $680m AUD
So Legend has a mkt cap of $680m with NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.5Bt's but not all are 100%)
$680m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 52c per tonne ore @15% Phospahte
GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's
@ 52c/t = $52m 8.2c GCR
So right now GCR is trading at half the EV given to Legend for its share at Mt Isa and $0 value for any other assets ie Copper Hill, Panama, Canadian Uranium, the 6+ JV's in NSW, the other Aussie porjects ALL FREE
Am I the only one who thinks this is ridiculously cheap
Overnight Legend has risen strongly to $3.10 with 200m shares fully dilluted its MKT CAP is now $620m US = $680m AUD
So Legend has a mkt cap of $680m with NET 1.3Bt's@15% Phosphate (1.5Bt's but not all are 100%)
$680m With 1.3Bt's@15%Phosphate = 52c per tonne ore @15% Phospahte
GCR has 20% of 500Mt's@15%Phosphate = Net 100Mt's
@ 52c/t = $52m 8.2c GCR
So right now GCR is trading at half the EV given to Legend for its share at Mt Isa and $0 value for any other assets ie Copper Hill, Panama, Canadian Uranium, the 6+ JV's in NSW, the other Aussie porjects ALL FREE
Am I the only one who thinks this is ridiculously cheap
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Mate,
the copper hill property is a dud! Very unlikely they will get a developer on board, not economically feasible, it's too risky to think Au a and Cu will remain at an economically vialbe price for this
And Im not sure about mt ISA it seems like its way off before they actually begin any sort of production??
FIRST POST EVER HERE!
the copper hill property is a dud! Very unlikely they will get a developer on board, not economically feasible, it's too risky to think Au a and Cu will remain at an economically vialbe price for this
And Im not sure about mt ISA it seems like its way off before they actually begin any sort of production??
FIRST POST EVER HERE!
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Hi goldman,
If thats how you view Copper HIll then give it a 0% value thats exactly what the mkt is doing, however I feel that even though the grades are bugger low the very low waste to strip ratio 0.6:1 from memory and the proximity to exisitng infrastructure make it an interesting proposition nevertheless
As for Mt Isa, the US Insto's and brokers disagree with you as they are valuing Legend at alot higher levels than what you think Mt Isa is worth, take a look at Legend why does it carry a mkt cap of $680m? ? ?
My point is at current levels GCR is trading at half the EV given to its Big Brother for Mt Isa and no value for any of its other projects of which it has alot, the situation reminds me so much of CUL its not funny
any for your information LEGEND aims to be in production by the end of 2009 http://www.lgdi.net/
P.S. How close to production are the other memembers of the Poo Brigade? ie MAK? MNM? STB? RWD?
If thats how you view Copper HIll then give it a 0% value thats exactly what the mkt is doing, however I feel that even though the grades are bugger low the very low waste to strip ratio 0.6:1 from memory and the proximity to exisitng infrastructure make it an interesting proposition nevertheless
As for Mt Isa, the US Insto's and brokers disagree with you as they are valuing Legend at alot higher levels than what you think Mt Isa is worth, take a look at Legend why does it carry a mkt cap of $680m? ? ?
My point is at current levels GCR is trading at half the EV given to its Big Brother for Mt Isa and no value for any of its other projects of which it has alot, the situation reminds me so much of CUL its not funny
any for your information LEGEND aims to be in production by the end of 2009 http://www.lgdi.net/
P.S. How close to production are the other memembers of the Poo Brigade? ie MAK? MNM? STB? RWD?
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What other projects has Legend got on though may I ask?
Also, what in your opinion is the pick of the poo brigade (love that name)!!!
Also, what in your opinion is the pick of the poo brigade (love that name)!!!
Whiskers
It's a small world
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I reckon it's certainly cheap alright YT. Also, after allowing for estimated current qtr outlays, ($1.4m) just their estimated CASH at end of June ($3.2m) is worth 1/2 cent per share.
GCR has added a lot of very valuable strings to it's bow in the last year.
Just looking at the news desk, they have a lot going on at the moment with a lot of surveys and drilling getting underway.
Probably the next news in soon will be these grass root assay results as reported abt 21 April.
Copper Hill a dud. That's a bit rich ain't it mate. I'm in the business of searching for companies with unrealised potential.
There's a lot of copper and gold in them there hills with a low strip ratio and close to infrastructure. The economics are viable. All it needs is a bit more dough that GCR can resource atm to develop it.
So you have to remember they are still drilling there and if they hit some higher grade to add to the project, it could turn into a major project in a flash. That is still quite good potential for me.
GCR has added a lot of very valuable strings to it's bow in the last year.
Just looking at the news desk, they have a lot going on at the moment with a lot of surveys and drilling getting underway.
Probably the next news in soon will be these grass root assay results as reported abt 21 April.
Copper Hill a dud. That's a bit rich ain't it mate. I'm in the business of searching for companies with unrealised potential.
There's a lot of copper and gold in them there hills with a low strip ratio and close to infrastructure. The economics are viable. All it needs is a bit more dough that GCR can resource atm to develop it.
So you have to remember they are still drilling there and if they hit some higher grade to add to the project, it could turn into a major project in a flash. That is still quite good potential for me.
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Hey Goldmandane,
The reason I provided the Legend web page link is so that you could go on it for yourself and browse and see, then you would realise Legend have no other real projects, their focus is the Phospahte, thus the bulk if not all of their mkt cap is attributable to the Phospahte project they have to which GCR has a a partial interest which I hve now repeatedly extrapolated an EV for to show currently it should be worth 8c+ to GCR
You ask me my favourite in the Poo brigade?
Well thats a hard question, its out of MAK RWD and GCR since for now they are the only cheapies with actual resources, I think if you look at the charts and mkt caps of MAK and RWD you will see they have put on some really good gains (MAK especially) so I ask how much further can they run?
Based on this and the fact that GCR is trading at half its EV for Mt Isa alone I'd have to say that GCR is my favourite of the poo brigade by far
Please check the Legend Website http://www.lgdi.net/
and this presentation http://www.lgdi.net/pdf/Legend_Phosphate_April_2008v2.pdf
Also take the time to look at ths images I have attached as they will show GCR's deposits in the context of Legends greater projects
The reason I provided the Legend web page link is so that you could go on it for yourself and browse and see, then you would realise Legend have no other real projects, their focus is the Phospahte, thus the bulk if not all of their mkt cap is attributable to the Phospahte project they have to which GCR has a a partial interest which I hve now repeatedly extrapolated an EV for to show currently it should be worth 8c+ to GCR
You ask me my favourite in the Poo brigade?
Well thats a hard question, its out of MAK RWD and GCR since for now they are the only cheapies with actual resources, I think if you look at the charts and mkt caps of MAK and RWD you will see they have put on some really good gains (MAK especially) so I ask how much further can they run?
Based on this and the fact that GCR is trading at half its EV for Mt Isa alone I'd have to say that GCR is my favourite of the poo brigade by far
Please check the Legend Website http://www.lgdi.net/
and this presentation http://www.lgdi.net/pdf/Legend_Phosphate_April_2008v2.pdf
Also take the time to look at ths images I have attached as they will show GCR's deposits in the context of Legends greater projects
Attachments
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Playing a bit of devils advocate here which is healthy.
Anyway, which exchange is legend listed on? I cant seem to find out off their website.
Just realised its on the OTC's.
To me thats a bollocks market, would never trust its valuations.
Anyway, which exchange is legend listed on? I cant seem to find out off their website.
Just realised its on the OTC's.
To me thats a bollocks market, would never trust its valuations.
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Hey Goldman,
Thats your opinion to which you are entitled, I trust my opinion however since nearly everytime that I have spotted a really undervalued stock they have been re-rated and my faith has been vindicated, sure sometimes they drop back buts thats due to a combination of poor mkt conditions combined with poor results/ and/or poor management
Unless GCR sell the balance 20% Phosphate interest for under say $10m then there is little that can be done to destroy the undeniable upside value Mt Isa contains for this little miner
Thats your opinion to which you are entitled, I trust my opinion however since nearly everytime that I have spotted a really undervalued stock they have been re-rated and my faith has been vindicated, sure sometimes they drop back buts thats due to a combination of poor mkt conditions combined with poor results/ and/or poor management
Unless GCR sell the balance 20% Phosphate interest for under say $10m then there is little that can be done to destroy the undeniable upside value Mt Isa contains for this little miner
