GCN - GoConnect Limited

[alexc2005]

So, speculator has sold his parcel at 7c.

Good pick of the high haha.

I wish i had all day to sit there and watch it.

 

[McLovin]

Oh..If I'd known it was this pie in the sky I wouldn't have attempted a serious reply in my earlier post.

This is from the company last year for it's uctv.fm offering, which once you get through all the froth and bubble just looks like an unpopular version of Youtube with a bit of Myspace built in...

- Valuation will ultimately be comparable to valuation of Free To Air (FTA) television networks.

- Once the TV consumer has experienced free on-demand TV, and can watch programs whenever and whatever he
chooses, other than some premium content which he may choose to pay per view, he will not want linear or pay TV
anymore.

- If GoConnect achieves its target of 1 million audience reach, its enterprise value can be justified at A$813 million.

- Targeting representing one million monthly unique users in 6 months

Given the presentation is almost a year old, they should be valued at somewhere around $800m now. If you want a laugh have a look at how they have come up with that value.

http://www.goconnect.com.au/corporate/pdf/GoConnect Investor Presentation Dec2010.pdf

I wouldn't trust a thing anyone associated with this company says.


And a little background. Here's the list of top 100 Australian websites, with numbers of unique visitors/month.

http://www.google.com/adplanner/static/top100countries/au.html

Now, let's discuss more important things like will the world end on January 1, 2000 because of Y2K???

 

[motorway]

At the time of my last post on the thread
This is how I was looking at it

bouncing between .058 and .062
see who wins a close below .058 puts a lot back underwater
in between .058 to .062 ok to move ahead tomorrow

above .062 and a real vote of confidence

All the action was in the morning
The announcement initiated a sell off

Supply overcame demand
Demand was seen to meet Supply
and Demand then overcame Supply

Ok Who won that initial battle ?

Price and Time ==> I judge reveals Demand did .

It could have then have pulled back and finished at a Higher High
( the price movement tests the extremes of the ranges )

But price more or less sagged into the close
With volume increasing into the close=> some absorption , but then the last push up displaying no real demand..

So we could ,expect weakness to continue at the open.


But I on the balance of the early action ( the bulls winning )
and the sagging action that was absorbed,

Anticipate that demand will reassert and the 2010 highs will be passed.

If we look at a bigger picture P&F we can see That No column goes directly to heaven or directly to Hell.

We can see that each column builds the cause for the one that follows. That a series of columns defines phases of accumulation and distribution...

We can see that the recent move up was fairly extended both in comparative length and in distance from the very clear base .

A normal expected correction would be 50% of that move.

So far the effort ( today's volume ) has not produced an equal result .. There has been some absorption .. ( inharmonious action )

Without that announcement I was expecting with the momentum ( this is again TIME in one of it's aspects ) and the volume ( this is effort ) ==>and along with the nice formation the movement broke out from ( this is cause ) ==>That a correction would have occurred above the 2010 highs.

So I am still holding and looking to see where demand now starts to emerge and overcome supply. I would anticipate that, that will be the bottom of the correction..

That is==>That the next Up column on this P&F chart will pass the 2010 highs

If it doesn't then that will be a red flag that the analysis is WRONG
and the last point of support ( The bottom of this column of Os that are still to be locked ) will become very important ...

The tops and bottoms of the Xs and Os are points of support and supply

There is 7 years of battles visible on that chart .. But it is not of any time frame

The diagonal lines project forward from pivotal Points

THE CHART IS BULLISH
WITH A CLEAR BASE
atm in a correction

when will the next up column occur ?

Not till

" after they sell"

Just like this down column did not occur till

after they had bought

A hint on when and where to BUY and SELL maybe !

A trade has to be opened and Closed

cause has effect (important point .. this is one thing)

TEST and RESPONSE
CAUSE and EFFECT

These are names for the the columns of Xs and Os

Every column is always both

Motorway

 

[ob1kinobi]

Thanks for your contribution to the thread motorway.

You share some interesting persepectives.

I took profits yesterday, and may look to re-enter after further signs of strength or a +ve anns from mgmt.

Your posts and language are almost mystical.

I don't know much about Wykoff?

But appreciate your analysis

Cheers

 

[skc]

I spent a fair bit of time looking at GCN...

The more I look at this the more bemused, amazed and saddened I feel.

I am bemused at the gullibility of people who are blinded by greed and convinced by mis-information, charades and pipe-dreams.

I am amazed by how well orchestrated the whole pumping process has been.

I am saddened by people on the other forum who seem to believe... like they are brainwashed.

Take a look at GCN's quarterly reports... employees dropped from 30 to 15 people, only $11k in the bank and a revenue of $45k. Does that look like a business that is expanding, or capable of expanding?

Take a look at the so called Priority One Network Group... a company with no website, only registered in March this year, and no real signs of meaningful operation, is supposed to have a market capitalisation of $300m upon listing?

Take a look at the listing requirement for ASX... issues like you cannot achieve spread by giving shares away for free (which is exactly what P1 is doing), asset and profit test etc. All evidences pointing to P1 won't be listed.

Take a look at the supposed blue-sky opportunities. GCN wants to produce 7 IPTV channels - with what content? How are they paying for the production? Filming on an iphone with staff? What about the supposed 100,000 merchants with 400m members? Not real. It's only P1's supposed collaboration agreement which "allows it to reach" those numbers. It's only a target...

In the face of absolutely overwhelming fundamental evidences, it doesn't matter what the chart says. It actually wouldn't surprise me if there was one last hurray... the P1 valuation can be any number they make it to be... the same way GCN managed to "value" themself at $800m.

The only thing that I can't figure out... how could have this ramping worked?

But if this ends well for long term believers, I will give up fundamental analysis for good.

And, according to the primary ramper on the other forum.. people like me who don't hold shares but question the merits of a company must have alterior motives... may be I want to ramp it down and buy it cheaper, or I must have been hurt by this company in the past. And that's good enough argument for the lemmings over there to discredit anyone who offer negative evidences. It is just so sad...

 

[motorway]

I spent a fair bit of time looking at GCN...

The more I look at this the more bemused, amazed and saddened I feel.

I am bemused at the gullibility of people who are blinded by greed and convinced by mis-information, charades and pipe-dreams.

I am amazed by how well orchestrated the whole pumping process has been.

I am saddened by people on the other forum who seem to believe... like they are brainwashed.

Take a look at GCN's quarterly reports... employees dropped from 30 to 15 people, only $11k in the bank and a revenue of $45k. Does that look like a business that is expanding, or capable of expanding?

Take a look at the so called Priority One Network Group... a company with no website, only registered in March this year, and no real signs of meaningful operation, is supposed to have a market capitalisation of $300m upon listing?

Take a look at the listing requirement for ASX... issues like you cannot achieve spread by giving shares away for free (which is exactly what P1 is doing), asset and profit test etc. All evidences pointing to P1 won't be listed.

Take a look at the supposed blue-sky opportunities. GCN wants to produce 7 IPTV channels - with what content? How are they paying for the production? Filming on an iphone with staff? What about the supposed 100,000 merchants with 400m members? Not real. It's only P1's supposed collaboration agreement which "allows it to reach" those numbers. It's only a target...

In the face of absolutely overwhelming fundamental evidences, it doesn't matter what the chart says. It actually wouldn't surprise me if there was one last hurray... the P1 valuation can be any number they make it to be... the same way GCN managed to "value" themself at $800m.

The only thing that I can't figure out... how could have this ramping worked?

But if this ends well for long term believers, I will give up fundamental analysis for good.

And, according to the primary ramper on the other forum.. people like me who don't hold shares but question the merits of a company must have alterior motives... may be I want to ramp it down and buy it cheaper, or I must have been hurt by this company in the past. And that's good enough argument for the lemmings over there to discredit anyone who offer negative evidences. It is just so sad...

I could give you reasons to explain all your points...
Yes I have looked into them

But what degree of confidence would I put on them Vs the keeping in harmony with the chart ?

its ok imo to look at all the things thst RDW warns against. As long as the chart has the final word ...

Why because I am only a " Hitchhiker" I am in no position to buy the whole "shebang".. If I was driving I would know exactly where I was going. As a Hitchhiker I need The Composite MAN.. Who is ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to take me where I want to go. I have no control over him.

I can accept a ride or decline it and there is my POWER..

The only thing that I can't figure out... how could have this ramping worked?

But if this ends well for long term believers, I will give up fundamental analysis for good.

Two fabulous observations esp the Your first sentence..

Never BUCK the TREND .. But do not follow it from behind . The key word is HARMONY

and asymmetric information is another.

A trend is a series of higher highs and HIGHER LOWS

GCN is back to a 50% retracement zone and at more than one scale.

Motorway

 

[McLovin]

I could give you reasons to explain all your points...

What are they?

 

[skc]

its ok imo to look at all the things thst RDW warns against. As long as the chart has the final word ...

What's RDW?

Why because I am only a " Hitchhiker" I am in no position to buy the whole "shebang".. If I was driving I would know exactly where I was going. As a Hitchhiker I need The Composite MAN.. Who is ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to take me where I want to go. I have no control over him.

I have no problems with traders who trade the chart and don't get attached to things. And frankly I spent quite some time investigating this because I am interested in making money joining the madeness (too late now for GCN, but I am sure other opportunities will come down the track) as a trader, even though I made my post with a fundamental hat on.

It is those long term believers (I am still finding hard to believe that they do in fact exist) who I find bemused and saddened with. But hey, it's not my money they are playing with so if they want to believe, they can back the crazy stories all they want.

Two fabulous observations esp the Your first sentence..

Never BUCK the TREND .. But do not follow it from behind . The key word is HARMONY and asymmetric information is another.

A trend is a series of higher highs and HIGHER LOWS

GCN is back to a 50% retracement zone and at more than one scale.

Again, no arguments from me. But the keyword for me in this case is GRAVITY. I don't really doubt that GCN could pop up higher still, but it won't escape the pull of the fundamentals forever. My guess is it will have a almighty jump on the release of the P1 valuation. If that jump takes out the old high at 7c we might see more silliness. If it doesn't then it will be all down hill from there.

There's asymmetric information alright... the crowd is being played and some don't know about it.

What are they?

I would like to know as well...

 

[ob1kinobi]

RDW - has to be R.D.Wyckoff, I'd say. Motorway seems to be a devotee.

RDW has a trading system for sale if you happen to be lookng for one.

Motorways posts are a great read.

 

[motorway]

RDW - has to be R.D.Wyckoff, I'd say. Motorway seems to be a devotee.

RDW has a trading system for sale if you happen to be lookng for one.

Motorways posts are a great read.

Anyone interested or ever read any of my posts should realize who RDW is

Just update the chart.

Remember if it is going to go up

"It won't go up until after they sell"

Have they SOLD YET ?

Volume was lower today.

On the 50% level

A normal expected correction would be 50% of that move.

==>....http://enantiodromian.blogspot.com/2009/12/half-way-point.html

On some pointers on when when to Buy http://enantiodromian.blogspot.com/2009/11/way-to-make-money-in-stock-market.html

(THAT is a TRICK QUESTION )


Not too many know there are at least TWO half way points

One on an arithmetic scaled chart and ( maybe the more primary ) One on a Log scaled chart ... Which often is found near the 61.8% level on a arithmetic scaled chart

Such is the only magic of FIBS imo ..

And such is the only magic of the 50% level imo too ( You judge with it - That still makes it a magic tool )

Motorway

 

[skc]

Motorway

Motorway are you still in the trade?

Would you be so kind to share your stop and how it is determined - price, volume, depth, time, announcement or some combination of these?

In non-mythical language preferrably

 

[motorway]

What are they?

GCN rallied hard in 2010 on the back of the intial mergers and IPTV promise
followed was a tie up with SONY and then LG ( much later )

There was a retrace from that rally
and then it started to push higher

It stalled in September of that year..
Why ? Does it matter ? and who knows for sure ?

It is enough that it went sideways and down
went into the wilderness
finally finished at .006

Two significant factors imo if we are looking for a story to tell.


LA JOLLA COVE INVESTMENTS &

CASHMERE MEDIA.. ( GCN itself is a given )

WHY has it rallied from .006

Does it matter ? Here is the crux or at least a crux of stock market technique.

Something is only CHEAP. IF it is going to SELL at a HIGHER PRICE in the FUTURE..
IT is NOT CHEAP based on anything that is PAST HISTORY. ( THAT IS ANYTHING ).. IT is especially NOT CHEAP because The current price is LOW compared to a prior PRICE...

Something is only CHEAP if THE LINE OF LEAST RESISTANCE IS UP.

It is best summed up by understanding that when a stock gets to be too cheap, it will stop going down. As long as it is still going down, it is not too cheap!

The trick part to the question is ==> When is something stopped going DOWN

OK so ==> WHY has it rallied from .006 ?

P1 yes ( "FREE SHARES" etc ).. but also

LA JOLLA and CASHMERE seem to be no longer issues

Note I am not saying there is anything wrong with
LA JOLLA and CASHMERE in themselves ,, I am SAYING that the combination of factors forming a triangle with GCN. I think derailed the 2010 dynamics..

So I see it now as being in a sense back exactly where it was just before sept 2010
In the recent move it almost made that 2010 high .. Retraced ( on the back of the Capital Raising announcement ) and then came the delay announcement !


OK All that might be true or not
That is what I can see

I will and would rather rely on the Composite MAN and would not disagree (too strongly ) IF someone said you either do some very good research or you better off not knowing anything...

In any case you do not SECOND GUESS THE CHARTS

At least one very high profile trader who did so did come to a sad end.

Often nearly always we are better off not knowing anything. esp if we are only Hitchhikers.

You could also say GCN is the reason and for sure it is.

But their are three corners to a TRIANGLE.
So it was a Dynamic that unfolded.

ALSO their were other major shareholders SELLING too

Motorway

 

[motorway]

Motorway are you still in the trade?

Would you be so kind to share your stop and how it is determined - price, volume, depth, time, announcement or some combination of these?

In non-mythical language preferrably

YES still in the trade

imo selling is nearly absorbed if not already
Was there a buy today ?

Yes an aggressive one with at stop just above yesterdays LOW
The possible Buy presented itself when today it rallied to .045

There are several possible types of entry.

Today's was based on The Halfway points.

The buy itself way not at .045
But the fall into the close ( part of that trick question .. it does not have to be going up TO BE GOING UP ... REMEMBER HIGHER LOWS make for an UPTREND TOO ,, AND THOSE HALFWAY POINTS ?.. There is a link in a previous post with some info )

GET THIS------>


The one that goes down ( or UP ) is not the same as the one that returns
In crossing the halfway point... strength becomes weakness / weakness become strength


At the half way points...... The switches are made...


The HALF WAY point is a dynamic/fixed point ;-)


The action takes place on a field
But the action is the field
and the half way point
is Sui Generis


Motorway

Think about this nothing ( I say is MYSTICAL )

-->

The action takes place on a field
But the action is the field
and the half way point ++>IS THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN KNOW AHEAD OF TIME. WHERE THE FIELD IS and HOW IT IS MOVING.

WHAT ELSE MATTERS

Here are three others


(1) The Price movement
(2) The Time elapsed in each movement
(3) The Comparative lifting power or pressure of each movement

( That does not exhaust what to MEASURE ..But that ALONE will take you very far )

MOTORWAY

 

[alexc2005]

Announcement released.

P1 valued at just over 30c.

Share price action reflects this with a move to a top of 7.1c (from 3.9c close).

10c by the end of the week? We will see.

I bought more at 5.3, Not much $$ but just felt like i had to put something in it!!

Initially went to buy at 4.8, by the time my order had gone through the price was at 5.3, dayumm.

See what happens.

 

[motorway]

Announcement released.

P1 valued at just over 30c.

Share price action reflects this with a move to a top of 7.1c (from 3.9c close).

10c by the end of the week? We will see.

I bought more at 5.3, Not much $$ but just felt like i had to put something in it!!

Initially went to buy at 4.8, by the time my order had gone through the price was at 5.3, dayumm.

See what happens.

looking very good atm

consolidating atm holding ground because of this

looks as I write .getting ready to close strong maybe over .07

IE re accumulation ( talking just about the infra day action )

Motorway

 

[skc]

Fundamentally I maintain my "can't defy gravity forever" call.

The P1 directors said shares have face value of 30c, and the "independent" valuation comes out at 30.35c. Within 1%.

And a valuation of $273,163,550... talk about false precision.

The valuation purports that year 2 EBITDA multiple of 6.4... at 20% discount that means they think they can achieve EBITDA of ~$51m in year 2. Current year number on cards issued, transaction volume and revenue? 0, $0, $0. But hey the independent valuer said "a high degree of certainty" so what do I know.

And just to put a bit of perspective into this. Ezybond, the payment system that P1 wants to piggybacking-off, is valued at $20m GBP or so. Another perspective... MySpace was sold for $35m in June. How many visitors does MySpace has compared to GCN's IPTV channels?

Agree that technically the close is very important... and may push up towards 7c once all those who were trapped last week have their exits - unless all the insiders rush to the exits at the same time.

 

[McLovin]

Fundamentally I maintain my "can't defy gravity forever" call.

The P1 directors said shares have face value of 30c, and the "independent" valuation comes out at 30.35c. Within 1%.

I noticed too that the "independant" valuer has not been named.

If this turns out to be legit I will walk backwards to Perth.

The valuation is a farce. Especially the bit about the DCF valuation being "adjusted to only take into account revenues with a high level of certainty...". Were that statement true the DCF would spit out a big doughnut.

Good luck on the TA, it seems as though everyone is playing musical chairs and eventually the music will stop.

 

[motorway]

Agree that technically the close is very important... and will likely push up towards 7c once all those who were trapped last week have their exits.

Little to go on in the announcement in regard to assumptions and what they are based on..

But the close today might well be a pointer . So it is important in that regard as well.

Your comments on those trapped is apt and also always lagging behind.

There are those more or less informed. There are those who know all about P1 because ? they just do. eg they know the personnel etc . They know the valuer etc

In other words they are in a position to make a judgement ( Not talking insider trading
If so they will buy or sell==> while others sell or buy !
So the close is important for a number of reasons

Motorway

 

[skc]

If this turns out to be legit I will walk backwards to Perth.

I will print you a Tshirt that says..

"I was hopelessly wrong about GCN. Ask me how."

Similar to this one.

 

[skc]

I will print you a Tshirt that says..

"I was hopelessly wrong about GCN. Ask me how."

Similar to this one.